Check this out from DefenseNews.
Proposals are due in April, according to the Marine Corps' schedule. The acquisition office plans to award two engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) contracts of 16 systems each in November 2016, and in 2018, down-select and go to full production.Think about the trajectory of this. The Marine Personnel Carrier was first conceived in 2008 when it became apparent that the EFV would be too expensive to buy as many as hoped.
In 2010 they deferred it because "government furnished equipment" needed time to mature. The Marine Corps continued until the vehicle was canceled in 2013. Then in an amazing display of confusion, lack of focus and institutional stupidity it resurrected the program in 2014.
The Marine Corps family was not happy with all of this, so the Marine Corps put out the below video saying that they had a plan and that all was well.
But what do we really have?
An off the shelf vehicle that will have taken more than a decade...closer to two decades to get into service. Consider the Patria AMV. Already a "new" model is in the works. The same can be said for many of the different variants of the Piranha...we can even expect Singapore to be looking at an upgrade to the Terrex II if they follow their development history.
My modest proposal. Cancel the MPC/ACV 1.1 (for all intents and purposes its already canceled with this long time table). Admit to Marines and the public that the F-35 wrecked the budget, and a replacement for the AAV is too expensive to procure. Then accept the truth. While the USMC has had the AAV in service, the US Army has gone from the M113 to the Bradley, to the Stryker...performed upgrades on all those vehicles and is now embarking on a new Ground Combat Vehicle. The one vehicle that is Marine Corps specific is the one vehicle the USMC can't get right.
the Terrex II is NOT the upgrade. if you follow Singapore development work then you'll have noticed that they came out with the Bionix, an improved Bionix, the Terrex and the Terrex II. if they keep with their development history then a new amphibious wheeled infantry carrier is bound to hit the market any day now. as far as spending....have you looked at the region? they're not spending more than anyone else, they're simply keeping up with the Joneses.
ReplyDeleteI didn't say they were spending more than anyone else, I said there was a sudden surge of spending and that the money probably came from some stockpile. Their SOP is to save up, then buy, and since the RFI for them had such a short turnaround time, it probably meant the stockpile was already in place for something else.
ReplyDeleteThe Terrex II is fairly new, out last year or so IIRC. The base Terrex was only in service 2011/2012.
Terrex II is older than that. i don't know when it was developed but its been out long enough to be in the MPC and ACV 1.1 programs. additionally the F-15 buy was completed at least a couple of years ago, the LHA is something i don't have visibility on and last i heard they were looking at several concepts and that they were offering them for foreign buy. SAMP-T is already old tech and has been supplanted by other programs and the A330 has been purchased and is in service with no more planned.
ReplyDeletei just don't see a bunch of current buys going for Singapore right now.l
Terrex 1 was the MPC, the term Terrex II only came out end of last year. Everything before that was simply Terrex. So at least something good came out of the delay.
ReplyDeleteAs for the F-15, they sneaked in a few extra orders on the side. "Official" counts are 32, but Macdonnell tax declarations say about 40. I'm thinking closer to 48+, 40 is an odd number for a squadron which is usually sets of 12.
But I agree, they got their plate too full to get a new APC when the old one is still working.
They have their Type 218SG subs coming up, their LMV (something else to blame the LCS for, the "littoral" naming craze).
They call their mini-LHA the JMMS (Joint Multi-Mission Support Ship)
Busy buggers. And very black ops. I can't even get a technical speculation on the Type 218 much less any hard facts even though it is already in construction.
Terrex 1 is a totally different vehicle that was never put into the MPC contest. your numbers on the F-15 are faulty and i never said that there plate was too full for a new APC. they have a freaking state owned industry that is seeking to make inroads into the global weapons market place.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.janes.com/article/42235/singapore-quietly-expanding-f-15-fleet
ReplyDeleteThe larger point here is one that goes towards the fact that the acquisitions processes are broken across the DoD. Think about it:
ReplyDelete1) The JLTV was outpaced by light-weight MRAPS more than 7 years ago (one example is the M-ATV), not to mention HMMWV upgrades that dramatically increase the protection to levels that are acceptable for most conditions. Now, industry has pretty much finished the HMMWV 2.0 by performing overhauls on all other systems, effectively making vehicles that meet or exceed most JLTV requirements.
2) The F-35 was outpaced by performance upgrades to legacy systems that all but make the F-35 useless.
3) This whole fiasco with the MPC/ACV whatever it is.
There is something very wrong when you have a consistent and predictable pattern of industry being at the ready while the would-be-buyer bickers about requirements incessantly to the point that the piece of equipment being procured is obsolete before it enters service.
The Terrex II is the upgrade, but Singapore won't be getting it so soon. Their basic Terrex are still new and they are currently spending on 8 new patrol boats, 2 new subs and 2 new LHAs while their air force is getting new A380 tankers, F-15s and SAMP-T air defences. The amount of money spent really is odd, a sudden surge. My guess was that they saved up for the F-35, but when it kept being delayed, they redirected it into other areas.
ReplyDelete