Debaltsevo.
Many readers have been commenting on it, and I've watched as they've put up links and talked about the situation but I wasn't sure if this was actually shaping up as a real fight or just a sideshow to the fighting at the airport.
Real fight it is. Check this out via RT.
A ceasefire starting from 9 am local time (0600 GMT) on February 6 has been suggested by the Donetsk militia, in order to provide a corridor so that civilians in Debaltsevo can leave the conflict area. Kiev has reportedly agreed to hold fire.Then we have this from the NATO Chief on the possibility of arming Ukraine via CBS News...
The proposal for the local ceasefire was initiated by the militia, the Donetsk defense ministry representative Eduard Basurin announced on Thursday. The corridor should give people caught in the fighting in and around the town of Debaltsevo the chance to flee the area, Basurin said.
Kiev's military officials have confirmed their agreement to the ceasefire, according to Basurin.
Debaltsevo residents will have a choice of which safer area to head to, the DNR representative at the Minsk talks, Denis Pushilin, told Russia’s Rossiya 24 news channel. He said that people can choose between areas controlled either by Kiev or the militia, to be evacuated to the towns of Artyomovsk or Donetsk respectively.
The announcement of plans for the localized ceasefire came during a series of international meetings aimed at working on devising a solution for the increasing fighting in eastern Ukraine.
The US Secretary of State John Kerry visited the Ukrainian capital on Thursday following Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko’s pleas for the US to supply arms to Kiev.
BRUSSELS -- The top NATO commander warned Thursday that any move to provide Ukraine with lethal defensive weapons must take into account any possible angry reaction from Russia.This thing in Ukraine is turning into a complete clusterfuck.
U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove said that any action the U.S. or other Western nations take "could trigger a more strident reaction from Russia."
I thought that winter time would be the opportunity to sort this mess out and reach some type of peace. That time is rapidly passing. We could see warfare last another two or three years.
Expect it to get worse, if the US begins arming Ukraine, Putin will begin arming / inventing Russian separatists in the baltic states.
ReplyDeleteImagine 'rogue kalingrad militias' making Hamas style rocket attacks...
Russian sponsored terrorists or guerillas in the baltics is a bad scenario, I dont know how likely its this to happen but if it does its very bad. Nato would have to tread carefully or else face a basque country, northern ireland or israel scenario. not catastrophic in itself like the Ukranian one, but very bloody and weary.
Delete@Russian sponsored terrorists or guerillas in the baltics is a bad scenario@
DeleteFor what? Would you be so kind to name me some reasons for Russia to bother herself with this issue?
Mark my words, I never said Russia would do anything @I dont know how likely its this to happen@ Posibilities could be close to 0% I dont know, I just answered the hypothetical scenario raised by TrT.
DeleteThis is bullshit... Kremlin send in Ukraine shit tons of weapons and ammo and don't give a shit about that. But US will not do this because what would Moscow think?!
DeleteThis is why that cowardly fuck will lose against the Bear in this match, because Bear don't give a shit what everyone else think, never did, never will be.
not fair Shas! NATO and the US and EU...and Poland have to ask the question. we send weapons then what? you have to do a basic risk benefit analysis on whatever action you take and determine possible enemy counter moves. you do that in your head when you're operating in the field. take that to the strategic level and caution is advised.
Deleteand lets be honest here.
if the separatists were operating against a Polish or American battalion they would have been defeated....probably utterly destroyed in the field by now. and thats against a single battalion (with support of course).
arms isn't the problem. they're able to bloody each other pretty effectively. this is more basic. you're looking at an issue with their strategic and tactical leadership on the battlefield. everytime i look at events in Ukraine it constantly looks like a series of meeting engagements with units stumbling into each other and then duking it out.
this thing is a mess and its not going to get better just by giving Western gear to Ukraine.
I know... but this is bullshit, "west" dance around Kremlin on tiptoes wonder all the time "what will Moscow say, what will Moscow think, maybe we should not do this because what will Moscow say"... and Kremlin don't give a single fuck what "west" will say or think, they send everything don't even pretending anymore they don't.
DeletePan, if I am correct, nothing impedes Poland to supply weapon for Ukraine in unilateral order.
DeleteYou see info' this is the problem of standing in two places in the same time... one place the EU say "you can send it"... the second one, the NATO say "no comments (unofficially, don't send it)".
DeleteAlso, what weapon we would send Ukrainians already have... the thing they need, we don't have, we have in small numbers, we need them for ourselfs.
''if the separatists were operating against a Polish or American battalion they would have been defeated....probably utterly destroyed in the field by now. and thats against a single battalion (with support of course).''
DeleteWith support that its the catch here Ukrainian military seem to keep sending troops in with no or only limited supply provided and no Air support . The way NATO fights ,with lots of resources and lots of airsupport US and/or Poles would have been reduced to infantry without ammo or food or tanks and Ifvs in a matter of days not weeks if left on their own like Ukrainans are.
Now, Mr.T you absolutely mistake US doctrine with Polish doctrine, we don't rely on air power as we don't have and did not have an "air power" in our sleeve. We evolve from Warsaw Pact doctrine, we use heavy artillery support combined with mech infantry and tanks groups, we have a lot better equipment then Ukrainians in many cases, large number of already veterans of different missions... we know how they fight as we were teach to fight the same way, but we merge this knowledge with a lot's more experience and new tactics. We also know this terrain, we live in this region...
DeleteThe only solid weakens of Polish Army is lack of proper AA medium range defense. Close range is not bad, but it also need modernization. But in that conflict this is not a problem right?
I am slightly surprised to see Solomon telling us to carefully think about the consequences when in an other discussion, about ISIS it was i who warned about consequences and Sol who basically said:" f. them.".
DeleteAdmittedly the two conflicts are not the same, but it is interesting to see roles reversed, and in some way reversed they are because I have a problem with not sending aid to the Ukraine because it might upset Russia. Giving in to bullies is something that I really can not stand.
This does however not mean we should send the aid, because in the end Sol is right: you do need to look at consequences. Wile I think the consequence of pee-ing of Putin is not a valid one, he already is at that stage and is already acting on it.. so there is nothing to prevent.. there are other things to consider. Will it even help if you arm Ukraine or is it just for show? Without trained troops to operate equipment, what value does it still have?
Frankly, I do not know what the best move is, but whatever it is, Russia has taken itself from that equation by showing that it will do what it wants regardless.
"'if the separatists were operating against a Polish or American battalion they would have been defeated....probably utterly destroyed in the field by now. and thats against a single battalion (with support of course).''"
DeleteThe "Taliban" would disagree....
Different type of war TrT, different type of enemy... hills & mountains, almost no existing infrastructure, huge area, small "squads" without any type of heavy equipment or central command. This is more or less a classic type of war in terms of combat.
DeleteI do not see any Nato unit operating succesufly in Ukraine without air support .If you believe its the Russian who are doind the fighting in DNR then it would be safe to assume Air support could be denied from well withing Russian borders. In terms of Artilery do you really consider any Nato unit to outgun Russians who always used artillery and MLRS way more than airpower.
DeleteOf course... you think that NATO is one force and one doctrine. But different members had own doctrines, own tactics of use. Polish Army don't operate with air support as key factor, we are not the US Army. We rely on artillery and we can counter in most cases the Russian units with our own guns (we lack something in form of Buratino) on equal terms. MLRS? no problem go shit tons of them, mortars? also... mobile guns, yep got that. We don't cry that we don't receive air superiority and support... we used to not have it at all.
DeleteShas
DeleteNot really, the Taliban took horrific losses in the early years till they learnt to duck,
The Taliban's took a horrific losses because... they lack air support?
DeleteBecause they didn't know how to disperse to minimise the risk.
DeleteAn entire company died when a 2000lber levelled the apartment block they had fortified.
Battalions were massacred when AC130s flew over their unhidden trench lines and opened fire. When a few hundred Taliban on bikes fled to Pakistan, that was what was left of their field army.
The Ukraine seppos are likely to have a healthy understanding of the effects of air and artillery
Expect it to get worse, if the US begins arming Ukraine, Putin will begin arming / inventing Russian separatists in the baltic states.
ReplyDeleteImagine 'rogue kalingrad militias' making Hamas style rocket attacks...
@Imagine 'rogue kalingrad militias' making Hamas style rocket attacks...@
DeleteWith Tochka-U...Bgggggg
Probably fake, but hell I laugh my ass off this shit :D translation should work, don't know... don't have a face' account.
Deletehttps://www.facebook.com/historia.wojskowa/photos/a.180860285317886.41511.168176649919583/777703772300198/?type=1&fref=nf&pnref=story
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdUm5eoyHdg
ReplyDeleteSeparatist report 155mm shells, and 75mm rockets..
In the good old days, this would just result in an all out war where one knew where one stood. Now with the "deterrence" offered by nuclear weapons, its just these "proxy wars" or "insurgencies" or "terrorists" that keep cropping up everywhere. Oh how i long for a simpler time....
ReplyDeleteIf you're giving them weapons, you're doing it wrong! :)
ReplyDelete"We didn't give them weapons, they just got in touch with company A and bought a whole lot of them."
"You know how private enterprise is, they got all the permits, we can't stop them, it's legal."
"Aid money? We didn't give them aid money to buy weapons, they just took a loan at very attractive interest rates!"
Tell me again how ST Kinetics Ultimaxes ended up in Serbia? Government not involved. lol
82-mm mortar's mine hit an Ukrainian BRDM
ReplyDeletehttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9JrAqsIYAA6uhp.jpg
read Feanor's post (forum moderator) in this ukraine conflict thread.. everything link in there are kosher..
ReplyDeletehttps://www.defencetalk.com/forums/geo-strategic-issues/ukranian-crisis-12973-126/
one of the best thread in DefenceTalk..
Update.
Rebels clearing Uglegorsk. As of now the rebels hold it, and it seems the rebels have organized a mass evacuation of civilians. The exodus of civilians proceeded in both directions of the front, but the rebes provided buses to move them out. Note that the rebels look a lot like Russian military personnel. They're fairly obviously not, but they're modeled on them. They're quite well equipped, and seem to be fairly coordinated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g05kXeULis&feature=youtu.be
A Ukrainian Tu-143 shot down. http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1163578.html
Ukrainian army positions near Debal'tsevo. From the looks of it, they're former positions. They're empty and filled with wrecked vehicles. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNgsETaMK9Q#t=242
Battlefield photos from Uglegorsk. http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/1223194.html
According to CAST Ukraine has lost 2 of the 3 counter-battery mortar radars provided by the US. One was seriously damaged in unloading, and the other lost from rebel arty fire. http://bmpd.livejournal.com/1167371.html