Sunday, February 22, 2015

Investors turning bearish on Lockheed Martin?

We've talked about Motley Fool before.  Its an investment site that dabbles in defense stocks/issues.  The latest on the F-35, Lockheed Martin and the DoD is fun reading....especially the comments.  A few tidbits...
At last report, the U.S. Navy had only nine F-35s (the F-35C variant) in service, with two more ordered for 2015, and four for 2016. (Congress upped the 2015 order to four aircraft, unasked.) That makes the Navy the slowest adopter of the aircraft among the three services using the F-35. As defense analyst Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at the Teal Group, told Navy Times earlier this month, the Navy is "just not that into the F-35."
Indeed, Aboulafia said the Navy could cut its buy down to just 200 F-35Cs in total -- 23% fewer than the 260 originally planned. At $154 million per aircraft, that's a potential $9.2 billion loss of revenue to Lockheed.
And even that's not the worst possible scenario.
"There are some officers in the Navy," warned Aboulafia, who would prefer to "shift all funding to the sixth generation" -- to skip further F-35 purchases, make do with present-day fourth-generation aircraft, and save the service's money for investment in the envisioned new F/A-XX aircraft.
And this...
And yet, that remark by Aboulafia echoes: "They're just not that into you." Until Lockheed Martin wins over its detractors, its revenue will be at risk.
Read the whole thing here.

Like I said earlier the comments are funny as hell!  Lockheed Martin has a two-fer plus problem on its hands.  They've allowed (since bloggers had nothing to do with it) the perception of its flagship project to turn negative.  Despite the bribes, the economic tomfoolery and the games playing that they've engaged in, many people are infuriated by the lack of development, and the poor performance of this airplane.  The fact that many are now pointing to a quasi-recon role as its biggest selling point is not helping the argument.

The next issue is the US budget.  Things are bad, the administration would rather spend money on domestic issues and the SecDef has a different idea of warfare.

20 plus years to develop an airplane has consequences.  Its like starting the P-51 in 1941 and having it enter service during the Vietnam war.  

But the main danger to Lockheed Martin is that an investor page is turning bearish.  That could affect stock price.  A carefully laid plan is unraveling.