Greenert was speaking about the next generation of fighter aircraft, but his comments could just as easily be applied to Lockheed Martin's F-35C, the carrier-based version of the joint strike fighter. Aviation analysts who watch the F-35 program closely say Greenert's comments reflect ambivalence among naval aviators about the F-35 as a strike fighter, especially compared to the tried-and-true F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets.Told ya so.
"It's not just Greenert, it's across the naval aviation community: They're just not that into the F-35," said Richard Aboulafia, vice president for analysis at the Teal Group.
Greenert has expressed skepticism about stealth technology's value before, arguing in a 2012 paper that improving computing technology will render even the most stealthy aircraft more detectable.
"Those developments do not herald the end of stealth, but they do show the limits of stealth design in getting platforms close enough to use short-range weapons," Greenert wrote.
"It is time to consider shifting our focus from platforms that rely solely on stealth to also include concepts for operating farther from adversaries using standoff weapons and unmanned systems — or employing electronic-warfare payloads to confuse or jam threat sensors rather than trying to hide from them."
The bigger problem for the F-35?
The budget for the services.
Take a deep dive into the budget issues and things are bleak. The Navy needs a new boomer, keep the current fleet serviceable and build a few ships a year to just maintain the 300 ship fiction that it spouts. The USAF needs its next gen bomber, tanker and the F-35. The US Army is hanging on by a shoestring...its cut almost all the personnel that its sensible to cut and anymore heads into a risk area...and its so called modernization is a sad joke. They're simply maintaining equipment already in stock.
The USMC. Well you know my thoughts on whats going on there.
People are looking for the exits and preparing the ground for a quick get away.
I might have read over it, if this was already posted.. I got it from a well known site: Http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/
ReplyDelete"Perhaps learning from the expensive lessons of the present, designers of the future fighter F/A-XX may have reason to make stealth a lower priority. And, interestingly, the Chief of Naval Operations appears to agree external link. The limits imposed by stealth, coupled with extra tens or hundreds of billions of dollars through a fighter program’s service life are high costs to bear. The benefits of stealth may also be better on paper at the time of design than on the electromagnetic spectrum, especially a spectrum at the mercy of future detection technologies."
Sol, F35 will cost the double and deliver the half, acordly your last posts... it looks clear to me: the only way out is to stop pumping good money after bad (but people are just looking to save the face) ... at this stage, tho, I don't think all is lost, because you can -- with some intelectual honesty -- look forward and use the learning curve of this project (or what to not do) too develop a new plane or even fix this one (what i dont believe, as R&D costs in US are just too prohibitive: too many PHD's on twitter and so ...).
ReplyDeleteIt's sad, ofc, that PLA are closing the gap (due to reverse eng or just hacking) and will, in a near future (5-10 years), prob have bigger economy and larger military than US ... then, USD will face a real trouble, specially after WH's smart guys push RF closer and closer to them ... on this scenario (5-10 years ahead), or F35 would be price insensitivy (virtual economy, eg, printing and debt) or just canceled (real economy issue), with a special focus on systems and actual mature vectors instead of more LCS's nice-to-easy-nice-to-sunk 2 and 4 ... F18's can do the dirty job untill a serious plane is developed (a more realistic one, maybe) ...
In resume: if US don't want to outsource the 5th gen or even 6th gen in asia, iit would do better returning to the reallity where's real economy plays a fundamental role: cost-benefit rules ...
BTW, off-topic if you're interested: a ukrainian side analisys of todays events in debaltsev pocket (Stepanchenko), editor of the pro-ukraine inforesist.org:
http://inforesist.org/itogi-dnya-9-fevralya/
About the link, use chrome (google) translator over russia langage because the english version is only avail with a day or two lag ...
Deleteo>
I once thought the Navy was going to outright cancel the F-35C. I now think that they tried that when they asked to leave the program and were denied so instead they've resorted to a fight that is bleeding the carrier version of the JSF through a lot of small cuts. At the same time they are still fighting to keep the Super Hornet and Growler production line open. Good job on Greenert.
ReplyDeleteStealth is still fully valid, it is just configuration and mission sensitive in it's application. -35dbsm is no longer enough to remain unseen against modern AESA systems. Negative 70dbsm will protect against them and thus it's a matter of having a deep enough airframe structure to layer the coatings and RAS together in achieving this with few aspect spikes inherent to things like tails and inlets and canopy interrupting the overall surface.
DeleteMore Avenger II, less Hornet.
If stealth were ever to go fully away, the jammers would not be able to save you because they would be just as vulnerable themselves in a companion or stand-forward mode and the network-effect (radars here, here and here, across the horizon) would crippled their coverage vs. power loading in SOJAM mode.
The simple truth is the the USN are being their typical 'French' selves. Insisting that only they get to develop the next-gen fighter after sabotaging the USAF equivalent, and throwing a quite pout and active sabotage campaign when they don't get what they want.
Did they give a damn about the future relevance of naval power projection in a world dominated by the likes of eyeblink killing directed energy weapons (HPM as well as laser) and hunting missiles that flew formation and made multiple Taran attempts they would be making Airpower emphasize loiter and persistence for low end threats and CAS/OBAS.
And shifting to missiles off small surface combatants, Arsenal Class and subs for the FNOW win.
If you launch 50 missiles and the defenses soak 40 of them before losing whatever they were defending (most likely themselves), it's still a win. If you lose the equivalent cost in a downed F-35, it's a 'tragic loss for the nation', even if the pilot survives.
Yet, predictably, the USN are bunch of little boys in an exclusive flying club, emphasizing a 'New Kind Of Fighter!' rather than a /new range of flight characteristics with which to shape the nature of how we fight towards compliance with the kinds of wars we find ourselves stuck in (increasingly far and anything but furious, targets showing up on their own schedule, if at all...).
It is for this reason that the X-47 has been backburnered as a threat to the F-35 and will be cancelled, just like the J-UCAS was to 'free up funding for the fun not necessary' followon NGAD F/A-XX. UCLASS is a stalking horse to push F-35 out of the loop and then they will all go back to the thoroughly useless fighter-cap-the-airfield-beacon of existing 'high performance' systems with half the radius and 1/4 the speed and G of a missile based interdiction system.
Chuck Meyers of 'Fighter Mafia' fame said it perfectly: "JAST was fine so long as there was no 'air' attached." It was when Joint Advanced Strike Technologies became the Joint Strike /Fighter/ that things go screwed up. The F/A-18E/F and NGAD will not change that a bit because they put the airbase at as much risk as they are in a major, shooting, war.
UCLASS might, just because of it's legs and it's hyper stealth compatible airframe geometries.
Between what the Pentagon must know about the J20 and J31 plus the preliminary work done with a F35A at Red Flag, it sure looks to me like somebody high up is starting to realize the F35 isn't all that, especially if a F22 isn't around to provide cover.....it really is interesting how suddenly in the past month we are getting these remarks about LO and it's losing it's relevance.
ReplyDeletehttp://theaviationist.com/2015/01/20/nellis-afb-ordinary-day/
Speaking of budget issues, the Pratt F-135 engine for the F-35 costs about $30 million (Pratt won't reveal the exact cost "for competitive reasons") and the STOVL LiftSystem costs about $26 million, which adds up to about $56 million for propulsion alone.
ReplyDeleteAnti-F35 Operations Order
ReplyDeleteI. Situation: The Pentagon intends to declare Initial Operational Capability for the F-35B this July, which has been widely reported to indicate
F-35 combat capability and deployability, which of course are ridiculous.
A. Enemy Forces
-Lockheed-Martin, F-35 JPO and associated journalists
B. Friendly Forces
-Snafu, Eric Palmer Blog, and their supporters
II. Mission -Kill the F-35B IOC in July
DeleteII. Execution
A. Concept of the Operation:
-Present logical reasons in social media on why the F-35 B, currently stalled in development, is in no way ready for IOC.
1. The F-35 engine is its biggest problem. The largest, heaviest and hottest jet engine ever put in a fighter plane is not durable, with breaking turbine blades, and the engine flexes too much in sharp turns which has resulted in a catastrophic failure on June 23 with no announced engine redesign fix. The engine also lacks necessary containment.
2. F-35 performance overall is inadequate for a modern fighter plane. Its weight, fat body and small wings (necessitated by the vertical thrust apparatus on the Marine variant) limit its ability to climb rapidly, and its turns are currently limited to three G's by the engine restrictions, about a third of what a fighter should be capable of in normal operations.
3.The F-35 is touted as a fifth generation stealth fighter, but that's hyperbole and marketing. Any stealth capability that the plane had when it was conceived twenty years ago have been countered by advances in radar and infrared detection developments, assisted by the theft of all the F-35 design specifications.
4.Sensor fusion is another marketing phrase used for the F-35. Sensors built in to the plane's surfaces are supposed to provide display images on the pilot's helmet but test results to date have been poor.
5. The F-35 is a new-type electronic airplane with many computers and eight million lines of software code, but operational tests of software have been curtailed.
6. A critical risk to F-35 "combat capability" identified in the recent test report is the availability of "mission data load" software, which works in conjunction with software permanently loaded in the aircraft system and contains information to operate sensors.
7. The plane's logistic system includes on-board computers providing high-speed data download which is supposed to provide increased aircraft availability. The system doesn't work.
8. It is intended that the F-35B will be declared combat capable with many uncorrected deficiencies uncovered during testing to date, with more rigorous testing yet to come.
9. Lastly, with the F-35 still in development and prior to operational test and evaluation, there has been no development of tactics and procedures for employment.
393 aircraft planned by 2020. Almost there Don! keep up the social media mission!
Deletehttp://www.duniadiksi.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/dear_diary1.gif
you still refuse to talk about the issue at hand. i've been saying for a while now that the Naval Aviation Community is not at all thrilled about the F-35. now we have that same thought showing up in the Navy Times. so despite your "bragging" about the 393 airplanes planned by 2020, the issues are the same. these aircraft will not be usable aboard ship without MASSIVE modification...they're going to break the USMC and the amphibious fleet and will in essence be relegated to land based aircraft. additionally even on land they're going to need bigger hangars, majestically equipped hangars at that which will force the USMC to cut short its investment in them.
Deletethis plane will go down in Marine COrps history as Amos' folly, it will forever change procurement and while i talk about the AAV serving far longer than it should, we're going to be forced to bring Harriers out of the desert to serve aboard ship...or depend on AH-1Z's.
Marine Air is about to break itself because its getting everything it wants and will be a shell of its former self.
@ DC cocktail partier
DeleteF-35 plans don't mean anything. The initial JSF plan called for 465 planes through LRIP-6 (actual 128) and F-35B IOC in 2010 (actual 2015, maybe). The original end of development was 2007, now it's 2019 which it won't make.
So thanks for the encouragement; join us and help fulfill the mission to kill the bogus July F-35B IOC.
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Deletewow. back on the ban list because you couldn't keep it in the lanes. oh well. don't really like your company anyway.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Delete"Let's face it, if something moves fast through the air, disrupts molecules and puts out heat — I don't care how cool the engine can be, it's going to be detectable. You get my point." Greenert
ReplyDeleteWas he really just talking about 6th Gen fighter or was alluding to the F35?
I would bet that the F35 has been detected by Red Air IRSTs at Nellis and sudden that whole stealth "thingy" went out the window and how much does SA help you when everyone else knows where you are?!? F22s are so superior to F15/F16s that the F22 gets the first shot undetected but if F35 is visible at long range in IR, are F15s or F16s getting a first look/first shot? Are they able to stay out of range of the F35? What happens if they can stay outside the F35 missile engagement range and just pick it off? F35 only carries 2 AMRAAMS, are they been forced to take bad shots and then run down but other Red Air fighters? It's not like the "bad guys" don't know what they are doing and don't have data-links, have they already found a major weakness? Just my 2 cents......
@ NICO
DeleteWhat makes you believe that F-35 was at Red Flag? I've seen no report of it, only that F-35 isn't ready for Red Flag which I have no difficulty believing.
@Don. Pure speculation on my part. Maybe I'm reading too much into what Greenert was saying but to me, what he said about stealth and how cool/detectable the engine is, seemed to be more directed to F35 than 6th Gen fighter. We know F35s are flying out of Nellis, again, pure speculation but DOD doesn't have to rely on LMT work/power point, simulations and whatever's anymore, they have real hardware even if it's not completely ready, I figure that by now, someone has taken one or 2 F35s up and pitted them against some form of Red Air and SAMs. The way I see it, these comments didn't appear after a year or 2 of service of the F22, they are coming out now that F35s are at Nellis, I figure the preliminary results aren't pretty.....just my 2 cents of pure speculation, nothing else.
Deletei think i agree with you NICO. the way this crew operates it seems par for the course. they tried to rush it across the Atlantic for an airshow. they've been flying it over the Pro-Bowl. they're doing anything for publicity. the idea that the plane is at Nellis, the way these boys operate it seems almost natural that they would do a test of their new glory toy in a sim battle using sim weapons on it. if it had gone well then they would be crowing to the world. it didn't and too many people probably know the truth so its quiet.
Deleteagain. speculation but i believe it.
@Solomon, UK airshow
DeleteIf the MC persists in this bogus IOC in July then we can (again) expect to see it coupled with another misguided attempt to fly faulty F-35B prototypes 6,000 miles across the ocean to UK airshows.
It's all about the engine, which kept them from last year's airshows, and should do again this year without a fix, but the IOC declaration would encourage them (again) to do something foolish.
So, another reason for us to fight the MC IOC declaration in July. Presumably there is a different chemistry at MC HQ under Dunford. The jury is still out on that. I hope the man is talking to Greenert and Work.
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ReplyDelete