SVITLODARSK, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists rocketed each other with heavy artillery fire Saturday — shelling that extended far beyond any front lines — as the hours ticked down to a cease-fire that was supposed to start at midnight.Yeah.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko declared he would consider imposing martial law if the fighting does not abate in the conflict that has killed more than 5,300 people since April.
The fighting centered around Debaltseve, a key government-held railway hub between the rebels' two main cities of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Shells rained down Saturday afternoon on the government-held town of Artemivsk, 40 kilometers (25 miles) north of Debaltseve, striking a school, which rapidly burned to the ground.
Associated Press reporters also saw an artillery barrage near the town of Svitlodarsk, 20 kilometers (12 miles) north of Debaltseve, as well as considerable movement of Ukrainian forces' armored vehicles and rocket launchers along the road.
This ceasefire agreement is going to work. Sarcasm off.
Ukraine is fucked. Proper fucked.
As if anything else than martial law is practiced in ATO , its just a case that if ukrainian troops at Debaltsevo fall you are looking a a broken army and junta is in danger of becoming a target for a new coup.
ReplyDeletetime for a bit of truth for the govt in Ukraine. there time is limited. they're gonna fall and this treaty will probably speed the process.
ReplyDeletefrom my chair the rebels have already won. they govt really is in a position of simply controlling the territory they now have and HOPE that the rebels don't take anymore.
for the first time in this conflict the thought that ALL of Ukraine could fall under Russian/Rebel control is a serious possibility to me.
that is scary. what will be the NATO response? how will Poland respond? what will Obama do especially since i feel like this has become a power play between him and Putin. shit is fuzzy and its bound to get even nastier.
As if there was any doubt. The fighting is not gonna stop. Not even for a second. Tomorrow, every side will accuse the other of breaking the ceasefire, and thats about it.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, at this point, as much as I hate Putin, I'd say - let him have Donbass. Not much to have anyway - it is pretty much a scorched earth at this point, obliterated cities and devastated infrastructure. Only thing Ukrainians will be giving away on is their pride. But lets face it - they need to do it to keep their country intact. They learned the hard way - in order to maintain independence and pride - you need a strong army. Maybe in a couple of years, once they rebuilt their military from the total mess it is now, once their country has strong economy and can withstand total war - then they can go and have their land, pride and revenge. But right now, they lost, simple as that. And no-one will come and finish this war for them.
Nato ,EU and US should stay out of this shit they stired up in the first place, regime change 101 playbook needs to change as it almost never works out and often resoults in war.
ReplyDeleteUnrelated Check the terror attack in Denmark http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31472423
Declaring martial law easy
ReplyDeleteEnforcing it in the east?
NATO is a defensive alliance as far as I know. Besides, lets just be honest - 90% of NATO military prowess is US. And if US didn't send major troops against ISIS, after it pretty much nullified all US efforts in Iraq, and beheaded a few US citizens - they are not gonna send any troops to Ukraine. Because comparing Seps to ISIS is like comparing US Army to Seps. The cost in combat losses will be huge. And you cant play whack-a-mole with them like with ISIS - I am sure Mr.P will be happy to take the opportunity to test just how Pantsir works.
ReplyDeleteWithout US commitment, EU states, who went to extreme lengths to gut their armed forces, are powerless. They can impose sanctions, but thats about it.
Poland will respond with condemnation, and will probably increase its support of anti-russian forces, in Ukraine and elsewhere. They will not attack first - and Russia will not attack Poland first either - besides the fact that US will be forced to intervene on Poland, because they have to under NATO charters - Poland actually has a competent military, and while Poland vs Russia - Poland will loose, they are competent enough to make it a Pyrrhic victory for Rus. Other weaker eastern european states - mostly NATO members, so US intervention again.
All that said, NATO does have some issues with its unity at the moment.
I'm rather curious in why he would think the "rebels" would listen to him! lol
ReplyDeleteIf they were listening to him, they won't be rebels would they?
Too soon to tell if the CF will hold, this fighting is what happens when you tell people "At xxxxhrs tomorrow, all territorial gains will be fixed". Of course people will do last minute grabs and get as much land as they can before the gate closes. In a way, I actually see this as encouraging. People won't be rush grabbing if they were planning to break the ceasefire. If they were, they would just sit still, let the time past, then backstab you. This massive rush shows that they think it is going to be the last time there is a free for all.
Of course, it could still all go south, but I think it's pretty much over. Russia does not want to take over Ukraine, that would mean a common border with NATO/EU, so they'll use this "independent state" as a buffer, trip wire and caucus belli against any push East.
Look where that left Georgia , it fought its break away regions in 3 wars and n the last one when they felt confident and had a much better military than ukraines and they prepared for a war for some time, all out offensive sun tuned to defensive and a Rout + they lost those regions for forseable future.
ReplyDeleteAn alleged
ReplyDeleteplan of Ukrainians for Donbass campaign 2015 (obviously failed now)
http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/kolov_rat/37108184/33923/33923_600.png
What if the goal was always the war ???
ReplyDeleteNot a professional map plan. I can already see 2 cases of units crossing into another unit's FEBA in the case of Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteActually, I think this is the separatist's defensive plan with enemy ECA (Estimated Course of Action). There is more info on the separatist units closer to the FEBA than Ukrainian units. As for "failed" plan, I don't think so. That salient is probably Debaltseve and the separatists are obviously planning to pinch off the sailent, which is what happened the past few days, while holding the line in all the other places, which is a fairly decent plan.
If the ceasefire goes into effect, looks like the separatists will be keeping Donetsk and Luhansk.
In a cold blooded way, I'd say the loss of these 2 areas for time and development is actually worth it in Ukraine's favour.
Thats the risk of attacking - you might loose. But Ukraine has far better potential than Georgia. 10 times the population, far more resources. And if they play it smart - they can hit Russia when its weak, when its busy somewhere else. Sanctions are not going away any time soon, and judging from how things are going, they will probably get worse. There might be some civil unrest coming to Russia, and that will provide them with opportunities.
ReplyDeleteAll in all, if Ukraine cuts seps loose - it might get a chance for a rematch. If it doesn't - its toast, unless NATO intervenes for real.
I would not be shocked if the Philippines buys this Aircraft as their Next MRF
ReplyDeletethe ceasefire provides a framework for the sanctions to disappear. which is why Germany and France did this. the sanctions are hurting them far more than Ukraine losing territory. follow the money and if you want to know why they want this over then look no further than the economy of Europe. they need a rapid infusion to keep from sliding into a depression. the sanctions caused the misery, the end of sanctions should cause a rebound. if Ukraine loses so be it. Europe will be prosperous...or so goes the thinking.
ReplyDeleteCeasefire will provide framework for sanctions to disappear if it actually goes into effect and sticks. Not gonna happen. They are there to stay, and as far as "hurting" - I can tell you, I know and spoke with some russians - the Russia is hurting way more than EU. Basic food stuffs prices skyrocketing. Sugar went up 2x in price for example. Many things dissappeared. You have no idea how fucked economically Russia is. Not to mention that its food supplies were almost 50% imported goods.
ReplyDeleteImport companies are shutting down one after another. Here is whats happening - right now, nobody takes credit from russian importers, and nobody is willing to insure the transactions with russian importers - not even chinese. Everyone demands 100% cash upfront from russian import companies. And they can't do cash up front - because they have no acess to foreign loans anymore, and since central bank in Russia raised its base rates to 17% (now lowered it to 15%) - the domestic loans are so expensive they need a profit margins that don't exist anywhere outside illegal drug industries to pay back the loans. Russian economy is beyond fucked, they are living on imported supplies.
Now, they wont starve anytime soon - Russia has plenty of lands to grow food and cattle, they are already working on domestic food supplies. Technology, and I mean technology that chinese cant provide - advanced microchips for example, they already have huge shortages. And even Chinese demand to be paid in USD or Yuan, 100% up front, no RUB. China benefits from weak Russia.
dude. the fighting in Ukraine was the reason for the sanctions. a ceasefire IS laying down the framewwork for the sanctions to go away. haven't you been paying attention to military news? France is said to be looking to deliver the Mistral's as soon as the ceasefire takes effect! have you been paying attention to the financial papers? Europe is back into recession with its leading economy...Germany hurting right now.
ReplyDeletethe Russians might be hurting more but its all relative. both Russia and the EU want the sanctions to go away.
Light aircraft is a growth area. Tight fiscal budgets, economic constraints are all calling for affordable aircraft as missile platforms.
ReplyDeleteBoeing needs to go all in with SAAB on the T-X and even consider US made Gripen NGs.
I disagree. The tactical goal for this stage of the fight was to conquer Debaltseve. Russians threw there like 15.000 people, so the size of a full division. The Ukrainian defenses were 8000+ people (there is no info about the size of the defending forces).
ReplyDeleteAnyway, the Russian army was like 80% of the assaulting troops and the backbone of the attacking group. The mercenaries + locals were not disciplined enough for this fight so they basically have been used for cannon fodder and keeping the conquered cities.
So the might of the Russian army could not actually break an army that was formed practically 9 months ago. Which is not a good sign. Furthermore, 3 weeks ago Ukrainians recruited 70k people and the infantry training is 3 weeks and after that they are thrown into the fight. So starting 1st of March a large supply of recruits is going to hit the front-line which means that if Russians do not want to get overrun they need to put more forces on the ground.
Note: Ukraine plans to have 4 mobilization waves so at the end of 2015 their army to have 230.000 people. If Russia does not act before summer, 6 months from now it will be impossible for them to conquer Ukraine without a total war.
Well. Lets wait and see. So far anything EU ever said is ""sanctions are not going away". In fact, they added some minor ones after Minsk.
ReplyDeleteAs far as Mistral - deal was made before introduction of the sanctions, hence its valid. Even with sanctions, France either has to deliver it or give back the money.
In fact, they said they will add more if the deal is breached. And it will be breached. http://www.dw.de/eu-leaders-warn-of-further-sanctions-if-ukraine-deal-breached/a-18255134
So far, the shelling on both sides reported to be decreasing. Reports are kinda conflicting. Will have to wait and see. I am kinda hoping I am wrong, and they do stop killing each other for at least a short while.
ReplyDeleteWe are now over an hour into the agreed cease-fire, with up to 8,000 Ukrainian troops trapped in the Debaltseve pocket, within the decreed DMZ.
ReplyDeletekeep dreaming of great ukrainian army that is in practice being mauled by local rednecks with some supplys and data from uncle Putin.
ReplyDeleteAll the while ukrainian military resources are being plundered by it own .
Didn't i break it down enough 250k men means cca 50k combat troops and many of those are no trigger pullers.
Offtopic
ReplyDeleteAn interesting map about the issue
http://cdn2.spiegel.de/images/image-811111-galleryV9-stvu.jpg
The more I look at this aircraft, the more I think this will wipe the floor with the JF-17 and the 150-180 odd copies that the Paki's are producing. The targeting pod and AESA radar and off course the GE-414 being the standouts if the Mark 2 ever becomes a reality. A swarm of these and link up with the Phalcon AWACS does look like it will take out the trash with the Pakis at least and offer us enough dominance at economical rates over Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Friendly nations....yes. But no one knows the future and that kind of politics they might play later.
ReplyDeleteExcellent thought. And i wonder what kind of pressure China might pile on us if we do make a sale to either Phillipines or Vietnam or should I say a certain........Taiwan. Sure Taiwan is looking for more mature aircraft but just think about it.....they could ask for the BrahMos. What will India do and how will the Chinese react. Ditto for USA/Iran/India if the Iranians ask for anything.
ReplyDeleteThree weeks of training
ReplyDeleteYep, they'll be ready to fight against a combined arms Russian heavy division...
Realize that Putin/Russia wants a federalized Ukraine because that will hold the whole nation hostage, in limbo, from here to eternity.
ReplyDeleteAs far as the sanctions and whom they hurt,, it would be very unwise to believe lifting them will help Europe. Even before all of this Russia many times over used the measure himself to punish Europe, that will continue. Russia just didn't call it sanctions, they claimed some kinda imaginary technical problem or health risk and stopped import on a sector.
Stop pretending Russia is a good export/ investment market and instead invest in alternative energy, to stop being dependent on Russia and the Middle East.
And Mistral? Keep it and keep the money, let them sue for it.. and
appeal till they are blue in the face. A deal is a deal? Sure as soon
as that's also true for the deal you made to guarantee Ukrainian
sovereignty.
Whoever comes up with these ideas? There is no way the separatists have enough firepower to force a breakthrough to Crimea, not to mention no motivation. A bridge or ferry connection through the Sea of Azov is a lot more reliable than a possible multiple sieges and victories needed to force a land connection. There is a difference between "Separatist" and "Russian". Russia may be using the separatists, but remember, the separatists have their own agenda and it does not involve helping Russia for free. They're fellow bedmates for now. In the future, who knows.
ReplyDeleteOfftopic
ReplyDeletePolish work
at active AV’s protection
http://www.militarium.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=76:polski-zintegrowany-automatyczny-system-obrony-pojazdu-koncepcja-aktywnej-obrony-wozow-bojowych&catid=7:polskie-projekty&Itemid=9
http://www.militarium.net/images/stories/zdjecia/zasop%201.jpg
http://www.militarium.net/images/stories/zdjecia/zasop%207.jpg
http://www.militarium.net/images/stories/zdjecia/zasop%202.jpg
The seppos are now better armed then half of NATO nations in the region... so why not?
ReplyDeleteOld news info' they "work" o it for some 10 years or more... btw. can you say wtf is that?
ReplyDeletehttps://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/7a/ab/95/7aab954a634e694187eb8285f5f1048d.jpg
Fresh photo
ReplyDeletefrom Debal’tsevo’s pocket – rebels on a captured position and an Ukrainian soldier’s corpse.
http://instagram.com/p/zIU_GLRWwn/media?size=l
more photos and vids here
http://msk.kp.ru/daily/26342.7/3225103/
Oh they will give them Mistral... sooner or later both ships will rise the Russian flag and swim to the home ports. Why? frogs did not stop building landing trimarans for Russians and they are almost ready.
ReplyDeleteDima Wisotski Not to mention that its food supplies were almost 50% imported goods.@
ReplyDeleteBggg. This said said enough about economical knowledge of that “Russians” you spoke to. In 2012 it was 34%
http://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/data.do?id=37164&referrerType=0&referrerId=1293314
For exampl– the graphic below shows prices rising on the main food groups in several Russian regions.
http://www.bankfax.ru/files/images/news/2007/10/16/16100703.jpg
I do notnotice any 2 times rising for shugar.
@ Many things dissappeared.@
Which things? Jamon?
@theywere living on imported supplies.@
Something advices to me that you overestimate here. There is a catch – after USSR’s collapsed the foreign suppliers seized a lot of Russian markets – now we are kicking off foreign suppliers (who trade in dollars) and getting more room for domestic producers. This situation is the best chance to rise our real economy and domestic production.
@ Technology,and I mean technology that chinese cant provide - advanced microchips for example@
We have our own design, I guess we have here no need to copycat after Chinese copycats.
A fire-fighting
ReplyDeletevehicle
How much hostile the firers are in Russia?! :D
ReplyDeleteYou sure? this look more like riot control vehicle.
He's probably right. Ladder on top.
ReplyDelete