When does an insurgency morph into something different? When does the number of separatists, insurgents, terrorist, rebels etc...go from being a mob, dead-enders etc...to becoming an army in the field?
One thing we aren't seeing is 4th generation warfare. Check this out from Wikipedia...
Fourth generation warfare is defined as conflicts which involve the following elements:Think about it.
- Are complex and long term
- Terrorism (tactic)
- A non-national or transnational base –highly decentralized
- A direct attack on the enemy's culture, including genocidal acts against civilians.
- Highly sophisticated psychological warfare, especially through media manipulation and lawfare
1. ISIS and the separatists almost equal the number of state forces they're facing.
2. ISIS and the separatists have demonstrated that they're able to support and equip their fighters in the field.
3. They have been able to buy or steal weapons that place them on an equal footing with state forces.
4. They are engaging in stand up fights against state forces and AREN'T employing classic insurgent tactics.
We aren't seeing classic insurgencies. This is something new.
Ideological armies that assemble with enough power to fight state forces? That is shocking. If this is heralding a new form of warfare then peace as we know it is out the window. These types of peoples movements/armies can gather and unless killed in the crib morph into something that will require coalition power to put out.
Non-state armies, with sophisticated weapons capable of matching small nation forces in the field is a recipe for chaos.
These two wars aren't really insurgencies. They're something else and that should concern us all.
