Ukraine's recent losses to separatist forces underscore how much its military is outmanned and outgunned by an adversary backed by Russian might and a willingness to commit troops and arms to the fight.Geez.
Last week, Ukrainian national forces lost the strategic railway hub at Debaltseve despite committing thousands of troops and hundreds of armored vehicles to its defense. Less than a month earlier, they lost the Donetsk airport, where troops won praise for putting up a long, tough fight before they were defeated in a city that has been a rebel stronghold.
Ukraine's losses were so bad that President Petro Poroshenko sought a cease-fire, as he did last summer, when his military lost two-thirds of its armored vehicles to Russian tanks, artillery and rockets.
"The Ukrainians knew they can't counter Russian tanks, Russian armored vehicles and Russian unmanned aerial vehicles," said retired general Wesley Clark, a former NATO commander. "They knew they were at a military disadvantage, and sought protection" under the cease-fire agreement signed Feb. 11 in Minsk, the capital of Belarus.
I thought that I had been doing a fair job of following the fighting in Ukraine. I never thought it was this bad for the Ukrainian govt's forces.
Remember the story posted about the LT leading his men back through enemy lines? A part of that story that stood out to me but I didn't write about is how they had to dodge snipers, enemy checkpoints, armored vehicles AND unmanned aerial vehicles.
All the talk about supplying Ukraine with defensive weapons now is just talk without substance.
Ukraine is literally hanging on by a thread.
What defensive weapons ,you mean those artillery radars that are now all lost 3:0 ,first was damaged in transport ,second took a hit from artillery round and third was left at Debatsevo.
ReplyDeleteSupplying Kiev weapons wouldn't change the outcome just prolong the war.
i don't understand. i have taken no stand on supplying Ukraine with weapons. what is this comment getting at?
ReplyDeletePutin is still pissed off at the west over Libya. He signed off on the UN resolution to allow for a No Fly Zone that NATO quickly turned into a regime change mission. Russia lost billions of dollars worth of arms deals with Qaddafi and that's why he was so staunch with us over Syria and now Ukraine. He feels like we lied to him and screwed him over with Libya (which we kind of did) so he doesn't trust us.
ReplyDeleteI view Ukraine as in Russia's backyard the same way Cuba is in our backyard. When Russia interfered with Cuba we almost turned the world inside out. The country Ukraine itself has no threat to us or any strategic value to us other than a thorn in Russia's side. I see no point to continuing to damage the global economy over it or supply them with weapons to prolong the war. We should make it clear diplomatically that we think what Russia is doing is messed up, but anything beyond that just doesn't make sense to me right now.
These events are in a remote corner of Ukraine and can be remedied by giving the novorussian oblasts some autonomy like Crimea had, and like other provinces in other countries have (Quebec). That's Russia's position.
ReplyDeleteBut the Ukies and their anti-Russia allies want to make this seem like a huge affair threatening Ukraine and the Ukraine way of (corrupt) life. It's an over-hyped result of a US-instigated coup a year ago which by design threatened Russia and brought instability to yet another part of the world.
Not only are we not ready due to leftist influence we have a huge fifth column of people who have no interest in ever joining us or embracing our values . Keep in mind their is a large Somali "refuge" community in Minnesota. In seattle where I live our Somali refugees who are all on every form of welfare by the way have been committing hate crimes against the gays, intimidating women, and committing assaults on open minded progressives in our most liberal neighborhood of capitol hill.
ReplyDeleteUkraine is the largest country wholly in Europe, and the relatively small area in contention is shown here.
ReplyDeleteKiev lost more than armored vehicles. news report--
ReplyDeleteRoughly 1,500 Ukrainian soldiers have been reported missing in action and
military leaders are urging family members to help them identify the
bodies of those killed during the months-long conflict with
Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.
--I'm afraid that's an under-estimate, by about half.
Good god......an arabic Freddie Mercury.
ReplyDeleteIn other news,
ReplyDeleteUS Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken accused pro-Russian rebels of committing a “land grab” in eastern Ukraine and vowed to hold his breath until he turned blue in the face if they didn't stop embarrassing the U.S.
Russia didn't cause this situation, it was the US-instigated coup against a democratic Liev government, backed by fascists, which openly threatened ethnic Russians in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. In these areas people voted for independence, which Russia took them up on in Crimea (given its history and the naval base there) but in eastern Ukraine Russia favored a federal arrangement which would retain Ukraine borders but guarantee the rights of the peopled living there.
ReplyDeleteSo in reaction the Kiev junta attacked, and now comes the result of that ill-considered decision. Now we have Minsk 2.0, with prospective federalization, which could work but the U.S. won't allow it. The U.S. strategy is to weaken not only Russia but also the EU, economic rivals. Also some fat foreign military sales to counter the "threat on the Baltics" and other such nonsense.
the resemblance is quite striking, no?
ReplyDelete"Literally" [cringe]
ReplyDeleteThe Ukrainian military isn't hanging on by a thread, but it is having difficulty replacing equipment. Warfare puts a hurting on your equipment and they don't have the logistics setup for maintenance, depot level overhauls, supply etc.
The chief supplied of their equipment was.....the Soviet Union. It doesn't exist anymore and what they can't produce themselves, they relied on Russia or Belarus or Kazakhstan, so I doubt they are getting them replacements.
Heck, they can't even get uniforms to their guys. They are crowdsourcing units. The corruption and cronyism of the past 20 years have hurt the military and it is going to take time for competence to reassert itself.
you guys with this "Ukraine IS NOT hanging on by a thread" are failing to take a serious look at this situation.
ReplyDeleteyou want a stalemate because it reinforces your bias that all is "well" (to a certain degree). let me assure you all that it is NOT.
i won't do it today but just thinking back through some of the losses of men and material that we've heard about coupled with how small the Army and security forces actually were at the beginning of this conflict and it becomes obvious that their military has been all but destroyed in the field.
if having your nations national defense destroyed doesn't count as hanging on by a thread then i don't know what does.
the lack of taking into account all the info that we do have (open source) and automatically defaulting to a conclusion that makes you all comfortable is literally cringe worthy.
ok so if China annexes Hawaii that makes it ok but the size is small?
ReplyDeleteDon, if you think there is a chance in hell of Federalism or autonomy being accepted by the rebels, you are deceiving yourself. Too much water (and blood) has passed under the bridge for either side to try and make nice. The rebels aren't going to shed blood and lose friends/family just to be made part of Ukraine again. They are either going to fight for independence or to join Russia, but not automony.
ReplyDeleteIt takes two to Tango, Don. While the 'coup' might have been instigated with Western support, without Russia's direct, though covert, aid there would be no rebellion. The Ukrainians pretty much had the rebels beaten until Russia started sending groups of soldiers and equipment across the border.
ReplyDeleteHow's your work in RT Don? Already copy/paste the official propaganda bullshit?
ReplyDeleteI just don't understand how we're not ready... Rumsfeld said "you're always prepared for the previous war." We've fought these people before for over 10 years in Iraq, I'm sure they've learned some things about us and adapted. I just don't how they can parade around on youtube recently with their new young recruits in training (in uniforms) and not be spotted by our satellites, UAV's, and recon teams. Why can't we find them and kill them? Are we just dragging our feet or is there something else going on here politically?
ReplyDeleteThen again, after 10 years of training and weapons procurement, the Iraqi Army still can't stand on their own two feet, how many times can we lift them up? Democracy has to be earned by it's people, it cannot be given. We should just make Iraq the 51st state, it would be a hell of a lot cheaper! Please, someone explain why we just can't get to ISIS and take them out?
He is kinda right you know. Yanukovich is a piece of shit but was a democratically elected piece of shit, elected in the fairest election in Ukraine to date if I recall that was the Guardian headline. We might like it or not but the west staged a coup for a bunch of oligarchs goons and its own faction of neo nazi freaks. What Russia did and continues to do to this day might be costing hundreds of lives, im not trying to argue Putin is a paladin of freedom, but the west started this one, our governments draw first blood.
ReplyDelete"Supplying Kiev weapons wouldn't change the outcome just prolong the war."
ReplyDeleteTo be honest, I think Putin secretly wants the US to supply those defensive weapons. I bet his mouth is watering at the thought of all the javelins, tows and UAV'S he can buy from the corrupt oligarchs and military brass.
"If russia had 14000 men and 550 tanks on the ground in ukraine that has to be the stealthiest force ever." here's the proof . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkp9Ggi0BdE
"lots of farytales and not much in terms of evidence" This has been the key principle driving the US foreign policy in the last decade, intervining in countries without knowing what the fuck you want from them. Tell me one country they messed with during these last 10 years that wasnt turned into a blood soaked hellhole by their deluded ideas or that at least its better of than before? Irak, Libya, Syria, Georgia, Yemen, Ukraine?
Henry Kissinger must be having nightmares at night with the likes of Psaki and Kerry running the foreing policy.
Ukraine isn't holding on by a thread its being soundly thrashed.
ReplyDeleteThe only reason its not become another grozney is they lacked Russia's mobility to drive straight to the city centre and they are unwilling to level cities for fear of Russian retribution.
But this war is lost.
Kiev Isn't going to be able to impose its will on the rebels and the rebels arent going to submit peacefully at this point.
Now Kiev is simply trying to hold as much of the wealth producing regions as it can.
If western Ukraine is lucky, it'll be adopted by the EU as another Kosovo like possession, otherwise its bankruptcy and poverty
Putin's primary aim is to prevent Nato and EU-membership of the Ukraine. Worries of eastern people have very little do about all this, do they want to be part of Ukraine, or Russia or independent. But of course years of Russian heavy-duty propaganda has poisoned many minds there and some do actually believe that some crazy nazi-group has taken over Ukraine. Blowing up and jamming Russian tv-channels would be high in my to-do list in Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteBecause Putin wants to prevent Nato and EU-memberships, there cant be any peace. If current frontline would be new border-line of Ukraine and Russia, then what would stop Ukraine from joining EU and Nato in the future? Nothing would stop and due to this Putin is insisting some quirky federation model where Russia could veto-prevent all political issues inside Ukraine.
Putin can handle tactical matters, but in long-term strategy he is repeating many Soviet errors. Massive economical crash is looming.
Whether the US or the West were behind the Maidan events is an important topic, but one that belongs in another thread. DId the West miscalculate? Sure. Does it belong in this thread? No.
ReplyDeleteThis thread is about the Ukrainian military and its difficulty in defeating a Russian supplied and led 'rebellion'.
Donetsk and Luhansk are tiny bits of Ukraine. The Russians are building a land bridge to the Crimea. Next stop on the Rebel Express, Mariupol.
ReplyDeleteInteresting site.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.vocativ.com/world/ukraine-world/black-february-ukrainian-army/
You can't just cry about your enemy when he play the same game as you, with same rules ( or no rules)..
ReplyDeleteso mush generality, so much truth...
ReplyDeleteIt's true that with libya, we only used words for diplomacy...
It all looked soo peaceful when the Top Gear trio were in Ukraine just a couple of seasons back trying out cars and driving on Ukraine's arrow straight highways.
ReplyDeleteThe Russians should not be given credit for "this kind of warfare". We experienced the same with Pakistan during the Kargil Incursion and even before that with Operation Gibralter in 1965. Off course the Russians can be given credit for "excellent execution" and full marks for sticking to their objective despite immense pressure from outside.
Where the Paki's got their asses kicked, the Russians have succeeded. Their intelligence network detected rightly that there was more than enough Furious Anger inside these separatists not only once but twice and thrice and maybe even more in the future. Their Armed Forces moved with good co-ordination with their intelligence org. and the politicos and bureaucrats did not leak an iota of this idea until all was done.
All this talk about "the stealthiest army in the world" is right. Sol here among other bloggers and other readers here have repeatedly asked the question......"show us the evidence". Where are all those uber accurate spy satellites and UAV's and mini-UAV's, and any other contraption which can carry a decent Crizal/Oerlikon lense and photograph those little green men. Those things exist. And they were used expertly on us in the 2001 Op. Parakram where most of our movement was spotted and an advance warning given to Pakistan. Where is all that "tech. stuff" now? Any ex- intelligence spook want to chime in here ?
http://www.mintpressnews.com/chomsky-kissinger-agree-avoid-historic-tragedy-ukraine/201839/
ReplyDeleteWe did not send land forces to create Peoples Republic and annexed Libya in to French Republic... do we?
ReplyDeleteI love this part "Washington violated its verbal promises to Gorbachev"... verbal promises that only Gorbachev heard... and really? Verbal promises in politics? That's make me laugh every time I hear that... verbal promises.
ReplyDeleteWashington: Oh no, no we will never expand with our partners NATO... do you want this on paper mister Gorbachev?
Gorbachev: Niet... I believe in your verbal promises, I'm a politician of course I will believe in your words without any type of deal on paper... because we always say truth and keep to our promises in politics da?
Hilarious! :D
We will be ready 10 years after the first ground attack. I'm not saying the first World trade center bombing should be discounted, but I'm talking the like the Kenya attack. When there are a dozen or more officers dead along with 50 to 100 innocent people then there will be an effort to train to the threat. As of now most police officers and command staff just like the general public refuse to see what is coming. I will not even go into the skills of most armed security. The whole it will never happen here thought process has to stop. The only thing I can think of is be in a state that let's you carry. Carry concealed even if your state allows open carry, I still see open carry as a huge shoot me first sign since the idiots promoting it never seem to understand they will be behind the curve when the shooting starts. Train up. Going to a static range isn't training. I still don't get people spending up to $1000.00 on a gun will only spend $30 on a bad holster and never shoot a box of carry ammo through their gun and think they are ready to protect any body, but they were taught to shoot by their fill in the blank and know what to do unless under stress the pull the trigger and there is no bang.
ReplyDeleteThing is no one denied that promise , 90+% of politics is verbal. And we are talking Henry K.
ReplyDeleteI was pointing the fact that EU use force when it has OBJECTIVES, in contrary of only using "diplomacy of words".
ReplyDeleteWe sent lot of Special forces during Harmattan, exactly like russia did in Donbass, and delivered lots of weapons.
Wasn't a treaty about nuclear weapons in Ukraine, which specified Ukraine never go to OTAN ?
ReplyDeleteCrimea historically belonged to Russia, which has a large naval base there. Those don't apply to China/Hawaii.
ReplyDeleteThis 'historical' argument is a dangerous one, if you go back far enough every piece of territory belongs to 5 or 6 different parties.
ReplyDeleteThe Crimea annexation was 100% illegal and should not be excused. Russia's semi-proxy war in the East of Ukraine is 100% illegal and should not be excused.
However there is a certain reality here and that seems to be that the Ukraine can not take back its territory, 'We' are unwilling to help and Russia wants to keep Ukraine in a state of limbo forever.
If it was up to me... yeh I know.. I would not keep playing the game by Russia's rules, but take a leap forwards. Put a big fence between the rebel area and the rest of the Ukraine, declare it independent and wash your hands of it. In the mean wile send troops to the Ukraine to secure it , very publicly from further incursions and put together a huge aid package with one aim only: make the (rest of) Ukraine 'one of us', a thriving western democratic nation. All Russia does not want it to be.
Russia basicaly placed us facing a 'fait accompli' regarding Crimea and the Eastern Ukraine, lets present them with one now instead of continuously giving the the initiative.
Don't you remember Don... Hawaii was in one time almost a colony of Russia... ergo Hawaii was ALWAYS Russian.
ReplyDeleteThe scale of force use in Libya that coalition used and what Russia use is like comparing cat to elephant.
ReplyDeleteOh the denied is there couple of politicians made that perfectly clear... and when you have nothing on paper that you can show as prof that this deal had place, well. This is first rule of every deal in every cases... from loan, to well everything... ALWAYS get thing's on paper! Because if you don't then you can't prove anything exist. It's just a fantasy of old alcoholic, nothing more, nothing less.
ReplyDeleteNope, nothing in the treaty about this topic. Half of points ware broken by US, GB and Russia but nothing about NATO.
ReplyDeleteOkey, you know that since 1991, we don't compare anymore wars on TNT kilograms dropped, or soldiers on ground ?
ReplyDeleteBut you can Keep Going like that...
BULL SHIT!
ReplyDeleteWhatever outsiders, the US, EU and Russia did behind the scenes, the change of regime in the Ukraine was an INTERNAL struggle.
Some poll among people that says they want independence or even to be with Russia is not a justification for military intervention. Russia has its own interests at heart, not that of 'oppressed' people , they want the ports, they want to keep Ukraine from developing in to a stable nation.
Defending people against major atrocities, oppression and genocide actually CAN be a legit reason to intervene in an other nation, but non of this was happening here. The new Ukrainian government ( which has a fascist smell to it, I will give you that) did not do anything to the Russian minority in either areas. The worst that happened was some speech by a minority fringe politician..
On top of that Russia GUARANTEED Ukrainian sovereignty by treaty, which they broke.
Your statement: ' but in eastern Ukraine Russia favored a federal arrangement' is laughable, since it makes it seem like Russia has the right to decide any of these things. Next thing you tell me The US has the right to annexate Okinawa coss it has a base there... Or maybe the Dutch can take Harlem in New York, because they originally owned it.
First of, this is Meint, I switched to using my Disquis account.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, the same thing is going on over here. The news does report on ISIS, terorism, Ukraine and a local problem with earthquakes, but the general public cares more about less serious things.
In the end this lets politicians get away with their slack defence policies and weak responses, which has to change, but, you know, there is an upside to all this also, it means the fear terrorists try to instill in our societies is not winning.
A little fear can be a good motivator.. I know, but somehow I also very much like it when terrorists do not get what they want.
Let's take a few steps back and look at the BIGGER picture. ISIS/ISIL, Al Shabab, AQ, the intafadeh ... what's the common picture? Jobs.
ReplyDeleteIf someone can do a census of the "fighters" in these organization, 9 out of 10 of those are people without a job, can't hold a steady job or the job pays so low it can't support your family. I won't go down to the details but that is just one part of the problem. The next is still their mentality of "Allah will provide".
When I was in the US (a few weeks ago), there was a move by some do-gooders that to stem the tide of these radical groups the answer lies in given them jobs. Yeah, right! (Like I said, some of these people really have no idea about the Muslim religion.) Anyone been to the different gulf countries? Have you seen what nationality are there cleaning the streets, servicing your hotel room or driving your taxi? It sure ain't a Muslim. They are mostly Filipinos and Indians. A little bit of Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. You don't see Libyans, Yemenis, Jordanians, Syrians, Iranians, Iraqis, etc. (I am not going to spell it out in this. Y'all have to "read between the lines".)
Giving them jobs ain't THE solution.
1. We need to start with the core of the issue: Radical muslim "clerics". If they want to come to my country and incite hatred, finance terrorism, etc, then deport him/them to the country of origin. I know some countries would regularly monitor sermons made by muslim clerics.
2. ALL immigrant (including the muslims) must sign a "contract" which basically is this: You come to OUR country and you must abide by OUR rules, culture and moral code. If you want to have your own set of codes then go back to your own country of origin.
3. If you are caught fighting in religious war and do not abide by Geneva Convention, you are on your own. Passport canceled, citizenship revoked. Period.
Too extreme, you bet. Over the top, maybe. You have a choice: You either please the muslims extremist in your country and risk the run of getting overwhelmed or you nip this in the bud.
I am sick and tired of turning on the TV and here's every leader of every country trying to bend over backwards to religious extremist but talk about how to improve health care, education, give-us-a-break-with-these-taxes or the rising cost of living and they're total idiots. Because of these religious extremist, I have to be wary with the people around me. ENOUGH! I want (normal) life back!