Sidenote;
The US Army Chief is concerned about falling UK defense spending. He stated...
"In the past we would have a British army division working alongside an American division.
"Now it might be a British brigade inside an American division, or even a British battalion inside an American brigade.
"We have to adjust our programme to make sure we are all able to see that we can still work together."
He described Britain's role as a key US ally as "about having a partner that has very close values and the same goals as we do".
"As we look at threats around the world, these are global issues and we need to have multinational solutions," he said.
This is interesting. If the "Big O" is correct then an ally will become a protectorate. I'm interested to see what British Military Bloggers have to say about this development.
Europe is finally getting better. In the last month we have seen the first decent signs of growth out of Italy and France. Spain and Germany are perking up, while the UK is quite strong. Ukraine, Libya, and places like Nigeria with Boko Haram are meaningless. How are the moves in crude unexplainable? The rig count is collapsing so the market knows supply will start to come down by q3 of this year, therefore price has rallied some. In oil the next big catalyst will be if Obama cuts a deal with Iran, then you could have a big move down again.
ReplyDeleteChina was hyped up by the media. Now its going sideways.
ReplyDeleteIts now entering the same period which struck Japan in early 90`s - remember the 80`s hysteria about Japan taking over and everyone learning Japanese? Yeah, wonder where that went..
First of all, China has been lying about its GDP for quite some time. Japan too had big growth but here`s the catch - it didnt result in big net profit. Its the same problem with China - GDP growth and actual profit doesnt corelate. And when everyone in US was wondering during early 90s why Japan had massive capital outflow when they supposedly were doing so good - Japanese knew that shit is about to hit the fan.
Its the same with China.
China has about 100 million people in middle class - but they have almost billion people living in Nigeria-type poverty. The interests of costal regions dont match up with the poor interior.
China is dependant on its exports but its main problem is that it cant sell its own shit to their own people.
Asian economies dont grow their economies like we in the West do - you know, sell more shit to more profits.
They grow it to avoid unemployment - the nightmare of Chinese Communist party. Thats why you have dozen of ghost towns and industries that in Western market wouldnt even last a year - heavily subsidized and inefficient.
It`s a regional power but China is going sideways and it both cant and wont become a challenger to USA superpower status.
Did you know that most of defense spending as of late is going for internal security forces?
In time PLA will turn in to police-force - it`ll still have its hilarious J-31 and other toys but they`ll be meant as a deterent for Japan.
Besides! I want to stress this - Japan is the true heart and soul of Asia, not China.
Its got very capable Navy,highly trained Army,its ethnically united and its living standard is the one that Chinese can only drool on.
Then it was a propaganda... or RT had someone inside in polish MoD. Because in time they publish it there was not a SINGLE official statement nor in civilian, military, blogs sites, nothing.
ReplyDeleteStill it's... only a news, already there are many angry voices that when people go to regional commands to sign in for training they return with nothing. I call some of my bud's in active service and they were really pissed, because they learned about this from a fucking TV!!! MoD those dumbasses did not inform most of regional commands about that... they did not have a fucking idea what those men want when they came to sign some papers. Of course MoD now apologizes because "orders did not reach every unit in time"... idiot civis. Polish SNAFU. One big mess...
But we are dead serious... we are always dead serious when we speak about Russians. We know them too well for too long to not be dead serious. Lithuania also is dead serious.
We almost fall in this fucking trap of perfect security like most of Europe... almost, now we need to speed up modernization and rebuilding of armed forces. Bear is not sleeping... nor should we.
Good on the Poles seeing things for what they are. I only have two questions when will the Finns start getting nervous and mobilize as well because lets face it the next three targets for Russia will be the Baltic, Poland and Finland. The other is when will the US pull its head out of its ass and get that armored brigade combat team to Europe like we said we were going to do months ago.
ReplyDeleteThink in larger history time blocks going forward. It is not hard to see some variant of an anglo-federation block in the future involving, US/CDN/UK/AUS/NZ. It exists now in certain aspects already, i.e. the intelligence network set up.
ReplyDeleteAs I've been saying for a while, China now is Japan of the late 80s without the high tech bit. Its entire economy is built on exporting stuff to the US, and there's no exit strategy,
ReplyDeleteIts not so much oil and the markets up as it is currency down.
The more money is printed, the more money is needed to buy stuff.
http://i.imgur.com/smJnMoT.png
ReplyDeletePerfect.
ReplyDeletePoland Stronk! :D
ReplyDeletePolandball is awesome.
ReplyDeleteIs that a practice round being fired?
ReplyDeleteI would have to agree that is the future. The Anglosphere as a political unit at some level. I think we'll see the EU experiment fail in its current condition and try to revamp itself. England (because I think Scotland will eventually bolt the UK) will find itself semi isolated: not truly desiring to be submerged in a Europe polity but not strong enough economically to have the clout it is use to having as the UK. Its one recourse is to either fade into being a minor neutral nation, or reach out to the Anglosphere as its way to stay relevant.
ReplyDeleteAll that machinery to fire a dozen rockets? Too much buck for the bang.
ReplyDeleteOMG Poland -- Russia must be shaking in its boots.
ReplyDeleteActually not. Russia ranks #2 in the world Global Firepower Ranking, Poland #19, between Egypt and Thailand.
And with Belarus and Ukraine between Poland and Russia, why should Moscow be concerned.
Meanwhile the recent military activities have been far away, near Ukraine's eastern border and not in Ukraine generally. Russia has no interest in most of Ukraine. Let the EU have this basket case, and Poland, which would like western Ukraine.
Why would Russia go after Baltic, Poland, and Finland? Seriously. Do you really think they have the conventional forces to do that?
ReplyDeleteThey could take Ukraine-proper in a couple of days if they had a mind to, but all they really wanted was Crimea to keep their black sea ports. Which is all about being able to support Syria (Why else do you think the Mistrals were seized?). The rest is theater and distraction.
The "Grid Smasher."
ReplyDeleteWhy would Russia go after Finland, Poland or the Baltic States? Because what you see as theater and distraction I see as attempts to expand Russia's borders. The logical targets would be historically Russian held territories. Yes that includes Belarus but Belarus is an ally of Russia and Russia knows better than to fuck their allies.With Belarus eliminated from the list the countries are Poland which regained its independence form Russia in 1918, Finland which became independent from Russia in 1917 and the Baltic States which were all occupied by the Russians until 1991 the only exception being Lithuania which the Russians left in 1990.
ReplyDeleteTo be honest the only one I think they would have trouble with is Poland. I do not think that the Baltic countries of Finland could mobilize their all important reserves quick enough to defend themselves. If Finland fully mobilized they could probably hold off Russia and even beat them. For the Record if it wasn't for Poland's relative proximity with western Europe they would be easy pickings for Russia as well.
Russia does have the conventional forces to take those countries that have a combined active military strength of some 187,300 men(Poland: 120,000, Finland: 36,500, Estonia: 3,200, Latvia: 12,600, Lithuania: 15,000) while Russia has around 766,500 active military personnel according to Global Firepower. Not to mention Russia has an air force that could run right over the Polish or Finnish Air Forces. The Baltic States have very small non relevant air forces.
Expand Russia’s borders? To what end? A world war would result and only China would come out ahead in that scenario.
ReplyDeleteRussia moving West is a pipe dream born of lazy Cold War thinking meant to boost arms sales.
Russia’s interests (and ours) lie to the east. Specifically to the central Asian ‘stans and their oil/gas reserves. Putin’s interests are in becoming the sole controller of the pipelines that move that energy from central Asia to markets in Europe, the Middle East, and China.
That’s why all the hotspots have been in Ukraine, Georgia, and near Iran. Because those are the pipeline routs out of central Asia. Just look at a map. Putin caved on defending Libya because it wasn’t essential to securing those pipelines. But Syria and Iran are. So he’s standing firm.
If Russia moves on anyone territorially, it will be to the east to secure energy. If they engage anyone to the West, it will be to protect the friendly client states that they have on and near those pipeline routs. They don’t have anyone in the way of their Arctic oil explorations, but they would undoubtably defend those too.
Realize that 10-25% of their entire economy (and the vast majority of their government income) relies on energy exports. Open war with the West would thus be crippling to them. Even more so than the sanctions and low oil prices that are being thrown at them now.
British Rockets. This reminded me of an old TV program called Sharpe depicting the actions a a fictional Colonel Richard Sharpe. An episode showed how he bet the Artillery Units Horses for his mission if those medieval rockets could pin point hit a designated target house where Sharpe himself was hunkering down waiting for those inaccurate rockets to begin their hopeless onslaught. Anybody seen that series ?
ReplyDeleteI simply don't trust the Russians as far as I can spit. However you a right the Russians won't expand into Europe Most likely with the exception of the Baltic. The next place they are likely to attack is Georgia again.
ReplyDeleteI trust the Russians to protect their own interests. Georgia was getting arms and a Ukraine-like prodding from the US/NATO to cause trouble near a Russia-Iran pipeline link (to advance our interests), so the bear smacked them down and (like Ukraine) secured the most strategically important territory (a bridgehead past the mountain passes), while leaving the rest of Georgia alone.
ReplyDeleteTo neutralize Georgia, all Russia has to do is give cash and arms to Armenia and Azerbaijan to fan the flames of whatever local grudges they hold. Which I don't doubt they're doing right now. That keeps Georgia preoccupied with other threats, which is what the US/NATO are trying to do to Russia in Ukraine, and now Poland.
I don't think you're going to see Russia (or Iran) take the entire isthmus unless a larger world conflict breaks out. Because otherwise the costs of being aggressive would outweigh the risks. Also remember that it's very hard to hold onto conquered territory in the age of the AK, the RPG, and the IED. These days the game is best played by propping up fake democratic movements that legitimize your conquest in the minds of the people conquered.
If you want to understand Russian/Chinese thinking a little better, learn the ancient game of 'Go'. It's a game where you strategically place pieces to hold territory. There is 'fighting' that results in the capture of your opponent's pieces, but that's secondary to proper board control, and good players rarely engage in it. Since the outcome is usually decided before the battle even begins.
Here's a map that really lays out the game board.
ReplyDeleteRussia doesn't give a crap about Ukraine-proper because it's focused on controlling the Black Sea, to protect its pipeline routs through Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is why it needed the Mistrals, to be able to project power across the pond to Turkey and Georgia. If Russia is going to go a conquering again, it will be to grab control of the Black Sea access to the Mediterranean that Turkey now holds.
Notice any sudden political schisms in Turkey lately? Chaos there would suit Russia.
The US/NATO want very badly to pull Russia's attention away from the Black Sea east into Europe, because there's no way we can win a war in the Black Sea. There's only one way in, and Russian air power would sink any ship we send there.
So our only chance of winning a conventional conflict with the bear is to bait them into invading Ukraine proper and turning this into a European conflict. We can then stir up our own trouble using Georgia as a proxy to go after Armenia & Azerbaijan.
Now look at who's between the isthmus and the ports for off-loading oil to tankers in Syria. Iran. Northern Iraq. ISIS.
Who would rather the pipelines came to their ports instead of the ones in Syria? Israel.
Understand the game now?
for a peaceful country that was overrun by its neighbors and eventually lost SIX million of it's citizens...like 90% of its Jews...and had 20,000 to 40,000 of its officers executed by the Soviets AFTER they surrendered....saw every major city flattened...and later suffered an oppressive, unapologetic involuntary occupation under a communist system for 45 years....AND ALL OF THIS IS STILL IN LIVING MEMORY....THIS CONTINGENCY measure is not enough.
ReplyDeleteWhy Poland isn't as fanatic, aggressive and obsessive about its military and territorial defense as Israel is just beyond me.
They need compulsory military drill of civilians and veterans, weapons in every household like Switzerland, weapons caches in every populated area like Saddam had in Iraq, more anti-tank weapons, more armor, more aircraft etc.
we both know the answer to that one ...you make an excellent point though...the reason why is because just like the US they have a large portion of their population that has been pussified beyond recognition, liberalized beyond common sense and for some reason i don't understand it seems like the Western World has been captured by a disease where we're worried about shit that is irrelevant and stupidity is suddenly all the masses can talk about.
ReplyDeletebut national defense....full bore national defense is something no one wants to talk about.