The Chinese are probably telling the Burmese junta "Either you take care of your problems or we will. Choose wisely" hence the deployment of the armour to the border.
Interestingly, Chinese are running a publicity campaign with its neighbors in a series of interviews by scholars of China's think tanks, saying that China is determined to not get involved in the Myanmar conflicts and current actions show Chinese resolve, and that they need not fear the possibility of China getting involved in other country's internal affairs, China's holding it back even if Burmese air force jets are flying over China bombing Chinese civilians and North Korean soldiers are robbing Chinese citizens in China every other day.
Various official PRC comments made in public have indeed communicated some variation of that message to current ruling Myanmar govt and military leadership. The official line apparently is that Beijing wants stability and security restored in autonomous Kokang region.
On that score, Mr Peng (former communist leader of the Kokang region, opium drug lord and rebel leader of the rogue militia force) will likely need to be retired once and for all, before a more systematic, sustainable and civil reconfiguration of Kokang region can begin, vis-a-vis the sovereign Myanmar nation state.
Yet, what PRC leaders are probably grappling with is the fact that today's situation politically, geo-politically and economically is fairly complex compared to the earlier days of outright influence over Burma's military junta. There is Myanmar's national elections later this year, e.g., which is probably stoking some nationalist-sensationalism by the current ruling government party and military in kind. PRC probably wishes to keep balance in it's response and not further incite hotter temperatures running up to election day. Both Myanmar's ruling party and PRC would probably agree (for different reasons) to not see any Aung San Suu Kyi democratic-oriented opposition progress (likely not supported by Myanmar's military) and competing moderate parties contribute to more complications in the political sphere either.
Then there's Russian Fed/Kremlin interests too (not to be overlooked here), which might potentially be competing with PRC? Nuclear power projects, military hardware sales (basing?) and of course, oil & gas exploitation are in play. PRC being the largest investor in Myanmar and having large-scale interests in exploiting Myanmar's oil and gas resources, could hypothetically face some push-back in form of alternative deals abroad, in unforeseen worst-case harm to bilateral relations.
No doubt PRC arguably needs to better augment security along it's border with NK and probably more critically try to encourage and influence modernization, reform and liberalization of NK as a nation state in the grander sense (not simply reacting to constant security concerns coming from a relatively flawed NK). But the comment or perception (?) that Myanmar's Air Force is flying over PRC territory and bombing Chinese civilians is probably exaggerated and sensationalized, disproportionate to the escalating violence against Myanmar military by rogue Kokang militia forces. It was apparently a one-off incident and it's reported that Myanmar Defence ministry is investigating the matter. (Implying that it officially does not support such an escalation of pursuing rebels into mainland China as part of it's security operations).
But most of all, there needs to be think-tanks and officials from all of ASEAN and rest-of-world with interests of security and stability concerned to be resolute with a message to 'peacefully' and cooperatively resolve these disputes and conflicts across Asia today. There should be many levers including diplomacy as the main driver to employ; and not cannons as the unilateral go-to enforcement mechanism.
are you seriously advocating for more commissions and think tanks to resolve issues? haven't you heard of the UN? if peace could be instituted by simply talking about it then we wouldn't have had a war for the last 50 years at least and if you count other organizations that came before the UN with the same idea then its even longer.
that's the problem with the world today. no one looks at it as it is. everyone is caught up in this fantasy land of believing that despite differences in the build of men and women...despite increased testosterone in men, that it makes no difference on the battlefield. that religious fanatics can be talked down. that harmony is achieved by dialogue.
you've embarked on a fools errand if you believe that rationality is the province of the barbaric. you do know that was the downfall of the Romans, of many Brit kings when faced with Viking hordes, the current administration with Iran etc...
Feng at Information Dissemination-- In this past month, Myanmar air force has apparently waded into Chinese territory 3 times as part of its ongoing struggles with Kokang rebels. In the most recent time, bombs were dropped which killed 5 Chinese citizens. Due to the fact that the vast majorities of Kokang population are ethnically Han Chinese and use RMB as their currency, there is understandably a lot of sympathy in China toward the plight of Kokang. Many people have compared this to Russia and Crimea and others wonder if China should do more in this conflict. . .
Absolutely, in relation to some specific nation-vis-nation conflicts, disputes, or standoffs, multi-national think-tanks and commissions can most definitely contribute to bringing together a climate for dialogue and opportunity for negotiated peaceful resolution. Just look at multi-national Iran nuclear discussions today. And North Korea discussions, e.g.. No, nothing is guaranteed, but it's an opportunity and a valid process in the modern age.
Now, with respect to a potential conflict between PRC and Myanmar needing to be resolved 'peacefully'... absolutely, international support and advocacy for such a peaceful resolution there, along with any number of other Asiatic disputes, could be justified and beneficial.
So on this specific point (Myanmar/PRC), I wasn't implying a religious 'fanatic' as one of the belligerents, if that was being inferred from my comment.
And yes, you are right... sometimes military response is needed to quell an extremist militia/rebel/fanatical threat, which threatens to destabilize sovereignty/peace/international harmony e.g., such as in Myanmar today.
But hopefully, PRC govt and Myanmar will continue to be able to handle their differences (to how Myanmar might be countering the rogue separatist militia attacks in Kokang) responsibly and diplomatically, and not allow it to become a wider conflict. My opinion.
As for your last point and consideration... it's probably the opposite case, which would be more wise. That is, if PRC govt decided to make a public cryptic call for Kokang peoples to arise and separate, it would be highly tragic (destructive) and totally unnecessary in terms of resolving any grievances politically over time, without violent militant actions and unilateral rogue action, etc.
And no, don't expect PRC govt to implement such an aggressive policy vis-a-vis countering Myanmar govt in direct combat, or using Kokang militia as proxy, etc. As it would likely backfire and cause excessive cost and set-backs. It would be totally unnecessary as a means to better resolve the crisis otherwise, politically, with negotiated concessions et al and with least amount of continued violence. It's time to cease-fire...
First conflict of the year?
ReplyDeleteThe Chinese are probably telling the Burmese junta "Either you take care of your problems or we will. Choose wisely" hence the deployment of the armour to the border.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly, Chinese are running a publicity campaign with its neighbors in a series of interviews by scholars of China's think tanks, saying that China is determined to not get involved in the Myanmar conflicts and current actions show Chinese resolve, and that they need not fear the possibility of China getting involved in other country's internal affairs, China's holding it back even if Burmese air force jets are flying over China bombing Chinese civilians and North Korean soldiers are robbing Chinese citizens in China every other day.
ReplyDeleteVarious official PRC comments made in public have indeed communicated some variation of that message to current ruling Myanmar govt and military leadership. The official line apparently is that Beijing wants stability and security restored in autonomous Kokang region.
ReplyDeleteOn that score, Mr Peng (former communist leader of the Kokang region, opium drug lord and rebel leader of the rogue militia force) will likely need to be retired once and for all, before a more systematic, sustainable and civil reconfiguration of Kokang region can begin, vis-a-vis the sovereign Myanmar nation state.
Yet, what PRC leaders are probably grappling with is the fact that today's situation politically, geo-politically and economically is fairly complex compared to the earlier days of outright influence over Burma's military junta. There is Myanmar's national elections later this year, e.g., which is probably stoking some nationalist-sensationalism by the current ruling government party and military in kind. PRC probably wishes to keep balance in it's response and not further incite hotter temperatures running up to election day. Both Myanmar's ruling party and PRC would probably agree (for different reasons) to not see any Aung San Suu Kyi democratic-oriented opposition progress (likely not supported by Myanmar's military) and competing moderate parties contribute to more complications in the political sphere either.
Then there's Russian Fed/Kremlin interests too (not to be overlooked here), which might potentially be competing with PRC? Nuclear power projects, military hardware sales (basing?) and of course, oil & gas exploitation are in play. PRC being the largest investor in Myanmar and having large-scale interests in exploiting Myanmar's oil and gas resources, could hypothetically face some push-back in form of alternative deals abroad, in unforeseen worst-case harm to bilateral relations.
No doubt PRC arguably needs to better augment security along it's border with NK and probably more critically try to encourage and influence modernization, reform and liberalization of NK as a nation state in the grander sense (not simply reacting to constant security concerns coming from a relatively flawed NK). But the comment or perception (?) that Myanmar's Air Force is flying over PRC territory and bombing Chinese civilians is probably exaggerated and sensationalized, disproportionate to the escalating violence against Myanmar military by rogue Kokang militia forces. It was apparently a one-off incident and it's reported that Myanmar Defence ministry is investigating the matter. (Implying that it officially does not support such an escalation of pursuing rebels into mainland China as part of it's security operations).
ReplyDeleteBut most of all, there needs to be think-tanks and officials from all of ASEAN and rest-of-world with interests of security and stability concerned to be resolute with a message to 'peacefully' and cooperatively resolve these disputes and conflicts across Asia today. There should be many levers including diplomacy as the main driver to employ; and not cannons as the unilateral go-to enforcement mechanism.
are you seriously advocating for more commissions and think tanks to resolve issues? haven't you heard of the UN? if peace could be instituted by simply talking about it then we wouldn't have had a war for the last 50 years at least and if you count other organizations that came before the UN with the same idea then its even longer.
ReplyDeletethat's the problem with the world today. no one looks at it as it is. everyone is caught up in this fantasy land of believing that despite differences in the build of men and women...despite increased testosterone in men, that it makes no difference on the battlefield. that religious fanatics can be talked down. that harmony is achieved by dialogue.
you've embarked on a fools errand if you believe that rationality is the province of the barbaric. you do know that was the downfall of the Romans, of many Brit kings when faced with Viking hordes, the current administration with Iran etc...
I always get an overwhelming urge to punch people who renounce all violence,
ReplyDeleteFeng at Information Dissemination--
ReplyDeleteIn this past month, Myanmar air force has apparently waded into Chinese
territory 3 times as part of its ongoing struggles with Kokang rebels.
In the most recent time, bombs were dropped which killed 5 Chinese
citizens. Due to the fact that the vast majorities of Kokang population
are ethnically Han Chinese and use RMB as their currency, there is
understandably a lot of sympathy in China toward the plight of Kokang.
Many people have compared this to Russia and Crimea and others wonder if
China should do more in this conflict. . .
Absolutely, in relation to some specific nation-vis-nation conflicts, disputes, or standoffs, multi-national think-tanks and commissions can most definitely contribute to bringing together a climate for dialogue and opportunity for negotiated peaceful resolution. Just look at multi-national Iran nuclear discussions today. And North Korea discussions, e.g.. No, nothing is guaranteed, but it's an opportunity and a valid process in the modern age.
ReplyDeleteNow, with respect to a potential conflict between PRC and Myanmar needing to be resolved 'peacefully'... absolutely, international support and advocacy for such a peaceful resolution there, along with any number of other Asiatic disputes, could be justified and beneficial.
So on this specific point (Myanmar/PRC), I wasn't implying a religious 'fanatic' as one of the belligerents, if that was being inferred from my comment.
And yes, you are right... sometimes military response is needed to quell an extremist militia/rebel/fanatical threat, which threatens to destabilize sovereignty/peace/international harmony e.g., such as in Myanmar today.
But hopefully, PRC govt and Myanmar will continue to be able to handle their differences (to how Myanmar might be countering the rogue separatist militia attacks in Kokang) responsibly and diplomatically, and not allow it to become a wider conflict. My opinion.
As for your last point and consideration... it's probably the opposite case, which would be more wise. That is, if PRC govt decided to make a public cryptic call for Kokang peoples to arise and separate, it would be highly tragic (destructive) and totally unnecessary in terms of resolving any grievances politically over time, without violent militant actions and unilateral rogue action, etc.
ReplyDeleteAnd no, don't expect PRC govt to implement such an aggressive policy vis-a-vis countering Myanmar govt in direct combat, or using Kokang militia as proxy, etc. As it would likely backfire and cause excessive cost and set-backs. It would be totally unnecessary as a means to better resolve the crisis otherwise, politically, with negotiated concessions et al and with least amount of continued violence. It's time to cease-fire...