According to unverifiable local sources, the Kokang rebels scored a major victory by inflicting over 70 enemy casualties (there are graphic photos of the body-count elsewhere) belonging to the Tatmadaw 66th Light Infantry Division two days ago. The rebels credited their victory by the absence of the Myanmar air forceThe services want into the Pacific in a bad way.
They better have a care. That is a dangerous region. Think about it. This is the second time in the span of a couple of months where we've heard news that rebel forces have stood toe to toe with government forces and won.
Which brings me to a concern.
I hope that our Force Protection Officers are up to speed.
One of those "training" missions...one of those partnership missions...could turn real nasty real fast.
Sidenote: Follow the link to read the story at Radio Free Asia. This is already ugly. Myanmar Air Force isn't flying because of fear of Chinese jets that have been in the area because of cross border incursions? Refugees flooding over the border into China from Myanmar? Increased crime caused by refugees? China won't tolerate this "disorder" for long. We could see military action to stabilize the situation. This is one to watch.
Deep involvement in Burmese affairs is to be ignored for now. The Burmese still dont know whether they are going Left or Right or staying put as it is. Apart from the odd development project here and social work there, this is not a country worth fighting for. The people in it wont understand why anyone is helping them and will resist even good intentions.
ReplyDeleteTrue, they are trying to open up internationally but there still remains a lot of work left for their Domestic Politicians, Generals and bureaucrats to pull off before the common man of Burma is integrated into the world.
The Chinese are heavily interested in exerting their Influence over Burma but that has cost them dearly. Development and Infrastructure projects that are being resisted by locals, remaining un-utilized, a hundred or so insurgent groups and drug dealers, gun runners, kidnap and extortion gangs still running about despite the Burmese Military getting aid from the Chinese.
In any event of a War involving China, Burman can be counted out for now. The Burmese people arent big fans of China and their military will have a hard enough time controlling the people rather than invade India or Thailand or Bangladesh on China's behalf.
But Solomon is right, this is one to watch. Watch how the Chinese conduct their first True Attempt at Foreign Nation Building with all the standard stuff that Nightmares are made off- Bad Terrain, Disease, Despots in power, insurgent groups, indifferent population, bankrupt economy, ramshakle defence forces, corruption, India waiting on the side etc.The Chinese never really attempted nation building of North Korea, maybe this is it.
well this will give us another "lessons learned" about Chinese leadership. can their local populations push them to conduct a military operation? i get the sense that the Chinese people are beyond tired of the cross border DISORDER and want something done. what will China do? they can't allow the status quo to go on so will we see a buffer zone established by doing a limited invasion and then setting one up? that alone will be telling. everyone talks about the nationalist movement in China. we'll soon get to see how powerful it is.
ReplyDeleteI watched this on a Top Gear episode where the burmese have Right Hand Drive vehicles but still drive on the Right side of the road. Thats how un-ready they are for the rest of the world. I hope the Chinese get stuck nice and proper there.
ReplyDeleteNot quite sure what you're cheerleading for Sol?? With all due respect, but would you also support a US invasion of Mexico along the border to set up a 'buffer zone'?? How ridiculous a statement. Of course not.
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry, but this conflict is much much more complex than you apparently are making it out to be or understand it to be.
I know it might sound as a boring and hum-drum alternative... but why not just advocate and call for International community (Including PRC China) to demand an immediate cease-fire to extremist militant actions in Myanmar, along the border and to all combat! Call for stand-down of the escalation of tensions between Myanmar and PRC China. Call for a negotiated and peaceful resolution to the disputes and conflict!
What the hell is wrong with people these days so quick to cheerlead for one side or another of belligerents!?! Hello?? Combat and hegemonic unilateral action, as part of a national interest must Not be the answer in the 21st century. How about conflict prevention (Intercession for Conflict prevention) and negotiated resolution! Good luck.
China has only deployed jets recently in response to the suspected Myanmar jet that had lobbed a bomb a small distance into Chinese territory, killing four Chinese citizens. They've also gathered a variety of air defence missile/radar, infantry, and rocket artillery near the border to dissuade any military incursions. It's a fairly proportionate response to the killings and most countries would respond similarly I think. I doubt China would want to directly intervene militarily given it has vested interests in both maintaining a working relationship with Myanmar and keeping the rebels in existence but docile.
ReplyDeleteUnless things further escalate (and it seems Myanmar has the sense to tone it down a bit now), I doubt China will seek to deploy any additional hardware to the area, let alone do anything drastic like launch air strikes into Myanmar territory let alone any kind of ground invasion.
Good assessment of the situation.
ReplyDeleteThat said, the issue is NOT the total amount of funding the DoD base budget will ultimately receive for 2016 (and no, those USAF F-35 will NOT cost $122M or whatever, per Weapon System Unit Cost, and no, USAF will Not be able to afford or procure 44 F-35 units in FY16)... but rather, the issue should be about how DoD needs to radically and comprehensively restructure it's acquisition and modernization planning to be more strategic and prudent in 'Austere Budget Environments' going forward!! Note: Austere Budget Environments being a known reality back in 2010 as something to adjust to and to overcome in future Defense decision-making! God speed.
i'm not cheerleading for anything. additionally to be blunt. i don't care what happens to those people. what i am doing is trying to anticipate potential responses to what seems to be ongoing troubles on China's border.
ReplyDeletedude. i'll let you know when i "cheerlead" for something. your assessment and your tone is off base. watch yourself cowboy. your mightier than thou attitude is definitely getting old....as are your accusations.
I guess I was just trying to argue that we SHOULD care about those people... on both sides! And thus collectively support scrambling to call on all sides to cease-fire and stop escalating the 'combat' solution and begin a negotiated, peaceful 'political' solution. Didn't mean to come off as a cowboy. Just impassioned perhaps about preempting another unnecessary humanitarian and civil injustice and potential catastrophe.
ReplyDeleteSomething I care about, so it's just me.
If you want to know how is it like conducting combat operations there, ask the DEA. They crossed swords with Kun Sha long time ago in the Golden Triangle.
ReplyDeleteWhat you might ask is the Burmese Air Force?
ReplyDeleteI may be mistaken but I thought the rebels were 'anti moaists' fighting a Beijing puppet government?
ReplyDeleteChina rather appears to be losing control at the moment, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, now Burma, all it needs is a spark in Tibet and it will be on the verge 5 front war...
When it comes to Burma, thats just it. There are way to many rebels and splinter groups fighting anyone and everyone. Every time they feel their turf has been messed around with, its violence. Its more tribal than anything else. One can venture to categorize them as Anti-this or pro-that but in the end its all about tribes. We faced a similar situation in the Eastern part of our country where rebel groups were fighting not only us but each other and anyone else they could carve up.
ReplyDeleteyou nailed the point i obviously didn't make. the politics of this region is down right head spinning. but this is just a tip of the iceberg. if you thought the issues in the Middle East were intractable then let me introduce you Asia. you're talking about religious, ethnic and historic hatred that stretches back for centuries and they don't forget! quite honestly i'm really beginning to wonder why we would want to step back into that hornets nest.
ReplyDeleteoh and from my perspective we've kicked ass all over the Middle East. the ME is perfectly tailored to our way of war. i'm not so sure about the Pacific. we're gonna have to face some obvious truths before we wander into that meat grinder and i don't think our politicians are ready to do that.
A return of the ANZAC.
ReplyDeleteThe DOD has always been given more money than sequestration allowed, every year since sequestration started. The USAF is going ahead with the KC-46. The F-35 is going ahead. More Growlers are being bought.
ReplyDeleteThe real question isn't what Congress will let us spend, the real question is what are we giving up to acquire new toys? Even the Army's push to make the Bradley hull the common chassis troop carrier to replace the M113s is costing money. We've been cutting brigades (but keeping the Battalions) in the Army, but without a real authorization from Congress, you will see a massive shedding of personnel this summer as the Army races to get down to the mandated maximum strength.
There is indeed a similarity between Burma ans Ukraine.
ReplyDelete1. Russian people originate from Ukraine, with the first Rus kingdom founded on Kiev.
2. Han Chinese people originated from Burma based on DNA study.
3. Ukraine has Russian separatists. Burma has Han Chinese(Kokang) separatists.
4. Ukraine is a buffer between Russia and NATO. Burma is a buffer between China and India.