The Rand Study was right? Chinese missiles could wipe out our bases in Japan?

via AOL Breaking Defense.

A Chinese surprise attack tomorrow could annihilate US forces and bases in Japan, two Navy officers found. But deploying more missile defenses — Army THAAD and Navy Aegis — would protect most targets north of Okinawa, Commanders Thomas Shugart and Javier Gonzalez found in simulations. Such a stronger defense, in turn, would reduce the temptation for Beijing to strike first in a crisis.

This scenario isn’t implausible. Chinese history and doctrine since 1949 show a marked preference for surprise attack. They struck Korea in 1950, India in 1962, Vietnam in 1974 and ’79. The Chinese usually justify their attacks as a defensive response to actions that threaten their sovereignty or vital interests. But those vital interests are defined very broadly — e.g. Beijing’s claim to the entire South China Sea — and armed force is seen as a legitimate response to purely political, non-violent provocations.

Story here. 

Interesting.  I would love to get a real deal look at sims that the Pentagon is running with regard to the F-35 versus Chinese and Russian fighters.  I bet what they're telling the public and what the truth is is diametrically opposed.

Additionally that much derided Rand simulation keeps getting proved right time after time.

The F-35 fanclub slams it but the truth is probably a bit depressing.  Remember when that plane was born it was cutting edge.  After more than a decade though its all common place.

The last thing that everyone should be aware of is that this isn't only about the F-35.  Its about our entire defense establishment in the Pacific.  We're too far spread out, covering too many bases....would we be able to mass forces in time to make a difference?  The other stunning thing is that in certain locales (Okinawa) we have too many forces in too compact a geographic area.

I keep look at Alaska.

It was once a major point of emphasis for our forces in the Pacific.  We should revisit the idea.  Aircraft can move at speed.  The idea of forward deploying so many forces within missile range of mainland China is in my mind crazy.

Either way we need to rethink our drink.  They aren't telling us the truth but the Pentagon is running the simulations and the threat is real.  If China goes HAM we're gonna get a black eye.