CDR Salamander has a sobering post which begs the question. Why continue the fiction with Russia? China is the threat!

via CDR Salamander's Blog.

I wonder what comforting words the former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, USA has for us;
...it’s likely the United States will be at war with China in 15 years.

Hodges said: "I think in 15 years — it's not inevitable, but it is a very strong likelihood — that we will be at war with China. The United States does not have the capacity to do everything it has to do in Europe and in the Pacific to deal with the Chinese threat."

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 Unless you're paying my bill, I won't give you the full brief here but, besides praying for peace you better:

- pray for the effectiveness of the Vietnamese Army.
- pray for civil unrest in western China.
- pray for a re-militarized Japan.
- pray for a decade of political and financial stability in the USA to mitigate the Terrible 20s.

So, yeah, we've got that going for us. The four above are low probability assumptions. When you wargame without

Sobering isn't it.

China as the main threat to the US is gaining traction.  I like it.  Not the fact that China is the threat but that its being IDENTIFIED as such.

The problem?

The ongoing fiction about Russia.

No way in hell are they going to invade Western Europe.  As a matter of fact it could be easily pointed out that the West reneged on promises made when the USSR dissolved.

We created the hydra and the mess that is Europe.  We can solve it by simply reaching sensible agreement with them.  Friends?  Maybe not but we don't have to be enemies either.

China though.

China is an enemy.  Their intentions are clear.  Their motivations are clear.  We're gonna cross swords.