Y-20A production at XAC.

pics via @Rupprecht_A

You're looking at my greatest concern with China.

The Y-20A might not be a capable as the C-17 but they can churn them out by the bushel.  Same applies with the Type 99 vs M1 Abrams (well to a degree...we have many in storage but how many are frontline ready?).  I believe it will soon apply to the Type 52D Destroyer vs the Burke.

Industrial capacity.

We gave it away and they now have it.

What if everyone is wrong?  What if the next war isn't a lightning affair that's over in a matter of days, weeks or a few months?  What happens if the next war is so vicious that we're into a WW1 style war of attrition just with much better tech?

Do we have the ability to replace combat losses?  Seeing how long it takes to drag things out of the boneyards to get them combat capable are they even worth maintaining (from the view of combat reserves)?

The worldwide trend is to move toward smaller armies, that are higher tech and its believed that they will allow victory on the cheap.

But if that theory is wrong then the victor will be the side that can replenish his forces after they've been savaged during round 1 of the fight.

Can the US?  What about the Europeans?

If nuclear war is so unthinkable that no one is willing to go there then could the idea that the next war will be fought with rocks and sticks be correct...the difference being that it won't be because of nuclear annihilation but because that's all that's left in the armory from a protracted conventional war?