By now you've heard that Trump's efforts at a deal have failed. I'm sorry to hear that but the writing was on the wall from the start despite my holding out hope for success. What do I mean?
1. Trump wanted the deal badly. When one side seems desperate for a deal, no matter how good the reasons, that side is operating from weakness.
2. He gave up too much too soon. Ending military exercises with S. Korea was also seen as a weakness. Trump gave too much too early.
3. He put the prestige of the American President front and center and the hermit king is reveling in knocking us down a peg. A leader never shows up to do the grunt work. Diplomats do the heavy lifting and then when all the i's are dotted and the t's crossed is when the leaders come together to sign the agreement. Unfortunately Trump looks like a rookie in his dealings on this one.
4. He had a weak partner in the S. Korean President. All of the above that applies to Trump applies to the S. Korean President. He wanted it too bad. Much too bad.
Where are we now?
If I was running things we'd go back to where we were but on steroids. I'd rush every available anti-ballistic missile ship to the region and maybe even roll out a couple of top secret projects for a live field test.
The next US/S. Korean exercise would be bigger than ever.
The sanctions would intensify and I'd force the Chinese to deal with millions of refugees flooding their border.
I'd set the conditions for continued negotiations from a position of strength. Oh and just for shits and giggles I'd reinforce the 2nd Infantry Division and move the 3rd MEF (Forward) to S. Korea so that they know we're serious about surging forces to the region in case of bad actions (Of course the same applies to Navy and Air Force elements).
That's my plan and analysis. What's yours?
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