Lengthy F-35 Upgrade List To Transform Strike Fighter’s Future Role

Article is at Aviation Week (here).  This is the part I want you to focus on ... it's towards the end of the thing and he lays out the optimistic, neutral and pessimistic possibilities going forward.  See them below then head over and read the whole thing.

Optimistic
After short-term stagnation, global defense spending resumes growth and Lockheed delivers 4,000 F-35s overall
Despite early concerns, Lockheed completes the Block 4 modernization program on-time and on-budget

Neutral

Global defense spending stagnates through 2040, increasing downward pressure on programs of record
Block 4 modernization suffers some delays and overruns but does not affect aircraft procurement

Pessimistic
Global defense spending enters a long-term decline, setting off a 1990s-style “procurement holiday” for fighters
TR-3 Refresh and Block 4 are delayed significantly, with cost overruns leading to further cuts in the procurement budget

If you're neutral or optimistic then I applaud your faith.  The trainwreck is here and the F-35 is gonna make it harder than it should have been....and it still won't be worth a bucket of spit.