PLA's 2006 Science of Campaigns...They are going to go first & big

They are going to go first & big - just read their works. The PLA's 2006 Science of Campaigns uses variations of "preempt" 15 times, "surprise" 110 times, "sudden" 246, "paralyze" 93, "seize" 231, and "strike" 942 times.

They don't just mention this stuff, it's their core idea.

— Thomas Shugart (@tshugart3) January 6, 2022

Have we ever wargamed someone trying a "Shock & Awe" on us?

I think we could weather the blow militarily.  The problem is that the leadership in Washington would be stunned, paralyzed, dazed and confused.

I'm sure we would act defensively and be authorized to do so on a local level (which would now be several different engagement across the region...a C&C nightmare for the numbered fleets/air forces) but the problem is that while we're reacting to their attack/s, they'll be achieving their objective.

Which brings me to Taiwan.

Would the Chinese launch attacks against our bases in Japan, warn S. Korea to remain out of it while seizing Taiwan?

The US, Japan and Australia would probably be so busy to dealing with spoiling attacks that killed bases and sunk a few lone ships that recovery would be paramount while they consolidate their hold.

In this type scenario, forward deployed forces are just gonna get stomped and for no tactical/strategic reason except to distract US from getting inside their loop.