Opinion. The War in Ukraine is transitioning. We've seen the pretty, the not so pretty and now we're going to the downright ugly...

Ya know what I've noticed about the war in Ukraine?

Everyone is ignoring the psychological aspects of this thing.  People are laser focused on battle formation, the tech, the performance of individual units (I've been guilty of this one) and how both sides perform in the defense/offense.

The psychological part of this thing is the key though...at least in my mind.

I'm saying the war is transitioning, has been transitioning, from the pretty, not so pretty and now we're headed to the downright ugly.

What do I mean?

From my chair, when the invasion first started, I truly believe the Russian leadership thought that they would be welcomed with open arms.  Additionally I believe that even the Ukrainian leadership wasn't sure.

I've talked about Zelinsky's arc.  

When this thing first kicked off the guy looked dumbfounded. Dazed and confused.  He had no answer except for pure unadulterated shock.

Much to his credit and my surprise, he shook back, regained his footing and put his entire nation on a war footing.  A TOTAL WAR FOOTING.

Don't underestimate how important that was.

Several allies to include the US offered him a ride out so that he could lead a govt in exile.  He refused (hit them with the soon to be iconic..."I don't need a ride, I need weapons").

That set the stage for part 2.  The not so pretty.

What did we see then?  We saw civilians making molotov cocktails, adding machineguns to private vehicles, AK's were being handed out like candy to every male (able bodied or not).

The media made it a sensation.

The Ukrainians were emboldened.

What did we see?  In an active war zone we saw civilians riding around in their private vehicles throwing molotov cocktails onto Russian armored vehicles.  We ACTUALLY SAW protesters block armored formations (this shit had me spinning...anywhere else that would have ended BADLY)!

Which leads to the not so pretty, headed to downright ugly part of this thing...sorta the transition inside the transition.

Oh and before I go further understand that I am NOT excusing the killing of non-combatants, just trying to do a tick-tock of events.

We saw the Russians get hard.  We saw Russian commentators ask if they're fighting or masturbating.  We saw savagery in suburbs around Kyiv.

Which leads to the downright ugly we're headed for now.

The way Russia deployed its forces in the initial assault made no sense UNLESS they were expecting limited resistance.

They've since corrected and now they're massing armor, artillery, infantry and airpower on a limited objective.

Mariupol is all but done.  Some expect a major push on Odessa. The allies are rushing heavy artillery, counterbattery radar and loitering UAVs to Ukraine.

We have no visibility on Russia but I expect they're continuing to gather forces and I would not be surprised if the Chinese are augmenting their munitions.

The next few weeks will be a full on modern war.

Buckle up.

This ain't gonna just be ugly.  It's gonna be coyote ugly.