via Bloomberg.
America is following an “arsenal of democracy” strategy in Ukraine: It has avoided direct intervention against the Russian invaders, while working with allies and partners to provide the Kyiv government with money and guns.
That strategy, reminiscent of U.S. support for Britain in 1940-41, has worked wonders. Yet as the war reaches a critical stage, with the Russians preparing to consolidate their grip on eastern Ukraine, the arsenal of democracy is being depleted.
That could cause a fatal shortfall for Ukrainian forces in this conflict, and it is revealing American weaknesses that could be laid bare in the next great-power fight.
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This is presenting Western countries with a stark choice between pouring more supplies into Ukraine or husbanding finite capabilities they may need for their own defense.
Germany has declined to transfer tanks to Ukraine on grounds that it simply cannot spare them. Canada quickly ran short on rocket launchers and other equipment that the Ukrainians desperately need. The U.S. has provided one-third of its overall stockpile of Javelin anti-tank missiles. It cannot easily deliver more without leaving its own armories badly depleted — and it may take months or years to significantly ramp up production.
If I was China, I'd have Russia keep pushing...keep letting the allies restock Ukrainian supplies. Keep the world simmering on the edge of economic ruin.
China would buy every drop of Russian oil, setup their own economic system outside of the one dominated by the West, restock Russian weaponry with a mix of Chinese/Russian tech...I'd do everything to keep Russia going and the West engaged in the defense of Ukraine.
Once their system is setup with the rest of the brick and road countries, a semi-peace established with India, more formalized relations with Russia, I'd get Iran to act a fool in the Middle East.
A few missile attacks against Riyadh, the IRG gets the Palestinians to start a few missile and terror attacks against Israel and a new offensive by Syria to push forces there and the West would be distracted to the extreme.
Then in early 2023, if I was China, I'd make a move against Taiwan.
The Navy won't be set to repulse the attack, the Coastal Defense Force formerly known as the Marine Corps will be halfway thru the transition and incapable of defending or projecting power...and our warstock will be essentially depleted...especially since the war in Ukraine has become an emotional instead of a strategic affair.
This is the type of danger that we're in which presents a tremendous opportunity to our enemies.
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