Thursday, April 07, 2022

What happens when the war is over? Who will pay to rebuild Ukraine?

Trying to look a bit into the future.

What happens when the war is over?  Who will pay to rebuild Ukraine?

If they reach a negotiated settlement then I'm pretty sure that Russia will demand its money unfrozen.  I don't see how they could "tax" Russian income if everyone is still embargoing their products (oil/food).

Meanwhile I expect the economic downturn to extend for at least another year or two (assuming we're lucky), which means that most nations in Europe and the US will be pretty damn cash strapped.

I guess contracts can be given to construction firms in the US and Europe to rebuild the thing but that will be cost prohibitive and take a ton of time.

The weird thing?

Hear me out on this and don't rage before you think!

The weird thing is that with all the destruction, the massive flow of people out of Ukraine, the tremendous costs of rebuilding it....

The Russians might have already won.  They MIGHT have won a crushed/massively destroyed country but at the end of the day they might have already won.

But flip that around.

What if Ukraine pushes the Russians out and wins.  They won the war but still have to win the rebuild.  Will the US/EU back that? What do you base your belief that we will when EACH nation will (assumably) be dealing with inflation, supply chain issues, high energy prices etc...?

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