I knew this was coming and Nicholas said it out loud. Ukraine convince me that protected 4x4s able to mount ATGM, light cannons, and loitering munitions are ideal for light forces across a range of scenarios. Inexpensive and modular, with decent on-road / off-road mobility, they maximise mass and bang-for-buck.

The conflict in Ukraine convinces me that protected 4x4s able to mount ATGM, light cannons, and loitering munitions are ideal for light forces across a range of scenarios. Inexpensive and modular, with decent on-road / off-road mobility, they maximise mass and bang-for-buck. pic.twitter.com/ljCS4gLfhj

— Nicholas Drummond (@nicholadrummond) May 13, 2022

I believe Ukraine is a unique fight with its particular quirks.

Having said that, its apparent that many are trying to validate preconceived notions from a war that is being strangely fought.

This blog refuses to be captured by the "hotness" of the moment. Some things can be gleaned from this fight but to declare any particular concept/weapon system as being the key to the future fight is premature.

From my chair the only thing that we can be certain of at this moment is that huge stocks of munitions are a necessity.  Additionally the number of vehicles that will be destroyed will probably outstrip the inventory of most nations.

Other than that, we have much analysis/study to do to determine where wars go from here.

The sad reality?  I BELIEVE we're in a period that resembles the interwar period just before the start of WW2.    Many are reaching to determine where the tech goes but that is a fools errand.  Better to be agile and ready to procure necessary systems as they develop than to predict where things go.

If we want to get ready for China then preparing our manufacturers to be agile and ready for max production no matter where the tech goes will be the smartest move.