Tuesday, June 07, 2022

Opinion: An economic 'hurricane' is coming. Political turmoil could be next.

 via CNN

The worst of the pandemic may be over, but the economic aftershocks of the global crisis, made much worse by Russia's war against Ukraine, mean that a return to normalcy is nowhere in sight.

"The hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way," said JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Wednesday, adding a warning to his ominous economic forecast. "We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself."

For the developed world, the prospect of a severe recession is deeply worrisome. In poorer countries, the growing fear -- and already present danger -- is what the World Food Program is calling a looming "hunger catastrophe."

When economies shrink and poverty rates increase, political systems shudder. And we're already seeing that in some countries.

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 Widespread economic turmoil is frequently a trigger for political instability. Look at the so-called Arab Spring that shook the Middle East a decade ago, toppling regimes and launching civil wars. Rising food prices and unemployment were among the key triggers. Rising prices could again foment political instability in the Middle East.

Told ya so.  Don't care how you feel about the war.  All in for Ukraine or understand Russian consternation and the need to attack.

It just don't matter.

What does matter is that the current policies are leading the world to doom.

In an interconnected world, designed that way on purpose, the idea of sanctions of the magnitude formulated by the allies is batshit stupid.

To be blunt?

The only reason why this thing hasn't spiraled into a world war is that Russia is moderating its stance.  They aren't doing "militarily smart" things like attacking every grain storage facility, knocking out Ukrainian power plants or ravaging the country with cyber attacks (just to name a few).

This is a modern war being fought with "rules".

The next one won't be like this one.  Many have died and will die but its still kid's play compared to what's coming next.

 

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