Ukraine/Russia war. If it ain't over by the end of Aug, beginning of Sept the coalition will fracture.

 This is pure speculation on my part.  I feel comfortable now on giving a timeline.

If the war isn't over by the end of Aug, beginning of Sept the coalition will fracture and the sanctions will fall apart.

My reasoning.

The "vacation" or "holiday" season will be over.  Many will be going back to work, school, etc..Once normal activities like back to school shopping will raise the ire of the public.  Shortages will now be felt and outrage will be at an all time high.

One caveat though.

Hurricane season for the southern US.

If it's as active as the weather service is predicting then we will see oil production offline for weeks at a time.  Refineries too.  That will put enormous pressure on the Biden administration.

The howls from some of his most important regions (the East and West coasts) over the price of fuel and electricity will be too loud to ignore.

The Russians thought that they could end this quickly at the start of this war.  They thought wrong.

The Biden Admin thought that they could bring Russia to retreat with over the top sanctions.  They thought wrong.

What will that leave us with?

Probably a muddled mess.

A low grade, grinding war in Europe, an economically destroyed global system and politicians searching for distractions to calm the masses.

My guess is that once we get to that point, the Biden Admin will pressure the UN to call a ceasefire with the lines frozen and a bid to put peacekeepers in-between the forces.  Chinese? Indian? I see them as the only acceptable forces.  African forces will not be allowed due to the geographic "sensibilities" involved (being polite to the many racists I have on this blog...fuck you all).

Europe will be destabilized for a generation.  Congrats to all that decided to play an unwinnable game.