China state media dials it up to 11 with regard to the Pelosi trip to Taiwan.

If US fighter jets escort Pelosi’s plane into Taiwan, it is invasion. The PLA has the right to forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane and the US fighter jets, including firing warning shots and making tactical movement of obstruction. If ineffective, then shoot them down. https://t.co/V7LhrXgXoM

— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) July 29, 2022

It still mystifies me that the Chinese are dialing this up so much. What it the gain? They're making this a do or die moment. 

Is it calculations with regard to Biden's timidity? I can only wonder if they tried this with someone like Reagan (even given today's environment). He'd be sending a Carrier Battle Group, Amphibious Battle Group, put a couple of Air Wings on alert and do the same with the 2nd ID along with the 25th ID.

The real question though is this.

They've tossed down a gauntlet that means that we can't back down...neither can they.

So what will they do when Pelosi arrives and what will our response be?

What is the percentage chance that we see a major military event before this is over?