Tell the truth Sat. Face it fellas. Taiwan will fall....

 Have you been watching the Chinese firepower display around Taiwan?

I have.

The sad truth?  They can break Taiwan...break it bad.

Worse?

If we're honest with ourselves and take into account the fact that decision makers in DC will have to be notified, meet and determine what course to take...that once the Chinese make a move on Taiwan that every base we have in the first island chain will be monitored for troops, aircraft and ship movement...and bearing in mind that IF WE'RE LUCKY we'll get a decision (assuming we'll attempt to defeat the Chinese in their goal of taking Taiwan) to go 4 to 8 hours after they've launched...also assuming that we've defeated any deception campaign and our intel has made us aware of their intentions.....

They can still take Taiwan.

We fiddled in sand wars and ignored the big bad that American consumer greed, bribes to leaders and normalcy bias in the Pentagon created.

Taiwan will fall.

Tell me why I'm wrong.