The doomsday scenario isn't a Chinese invasion...its a mistake happening on either side that leads to war.

 Ya know what the most dangerous thing is about these exercises that China is carrying out?

It's not the threat of invasion.  I don't think the Chinese want that, we don't want that but China NEEDS to save face ... so they're gonna rattle cages hard.

The most dangerous thing is that you have so many military units operating in a relatively confined area, firing live rounds all over the place that we could actually see a mistake happen that leads to a war no one really wants.

A missile goes off course and hits Taiwan?  A pilot gets amped up and does something stupid in the midst of patriotic fervor?

A ship captain that turns weapons loose when his ship gets illuminated?  An amphibious assault exercise where the landing forces doesn't turn around at the designated line drawn on a map?

People are involved in this thing and people fuck up.  That's the real danger here.