Thursday, September 01, 2022

Ukraine is on the offensive.

So Ukraine is on the offensive.

I find it curious and I'm wondering why they launched their assault now instead of waiting till they built up combat power.

They appear confident but I'll be watching for a few things.

*  Will we see proper combined arms action by the Ukrainians?
*  Offensive warfare is much harder than defensive. Will they be able to sustain their assault?
*  What role will air power play?  They've been able to reconstitute their ground forces (to a certain degree) but what about offensive air support?

My belief?

They're trying to shape the battlefield before winter...before their European allies feel the bite of cold, suffer even more from inflation/high fuel prices and finally the long talked about food shortages arrive.

Supporting a cause when you see no cost to that support is one thing...when you have to bear the brunt of that support is another.

I don't think all the chicken hawks screaming for war will be so hawkish when they start paying a price.

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