A reader of the blog (Gessler) put forward an intriguing idea. A "what if" that is so mind blowing that it has to be discussed.
Spare me the usual "ain't gonna happen" that alot of people spout almost reflexively, and dig into the thinking behind it.
I think its kinda cool. His comment in its entirety...
replied in SNAFU!This is just to illustrate a wider possibility:
https://www.theguardian.com...
...just as a thought exercise: toward end of this decade, how likely do you guys think it is that Germany could decide to ditch NATO and get into an alliance with Russia & China? Russia for energy, China for market access. This would of course leave them with no security cover from NATO/US which means that if the future German leadership (in no small part influenced by the huge industrial concerns which have a lot to lose if cheap energy & the Chinese market is no longer available) decides in favour of such a geopolitical realignment, German re-armament would become an inevitability.
Looking at the recent pace of arms buildup by countries like Poland I can't help but think its not just Russia they are concerned about. I think the Polish already have an appreciation of the economic & geopolitical pressures that will befall Germany in the near future, and are preparing for a worst case scenario as to what the German leadership could decide to do in response to said pressures. I think the powers that be are already seeing the pieces on the chessboard have started to move.
By the way, Poland has recently officially demanded $1.3 trillion reparations from Germany for WW2.
Much ignored in the US, but Germany has been bullying its neighbors for at least a couple of decades and many (especially in the South) are more than a bit pissed.
Another issue is that the Poles are gearing up for a major land action. It's the only thing that explains their massive buildup.
Another reader (forgot his name...sorry bro) speculated that we would see Ukraine fractured into many pieces with Poland controlling the area near their border (from what I've been told, many Ukrainians already work in their country) with Russia basically keeping what it has and the rest administrated by the EU/US.
That sounds about right to me.
Under those circumstances with markets dried up in the EU, friction with its most powerful rival (Poland) and everyone looking out for themselves is it outside the realm of possibilities for Germany to go its own way with regard to its economic interests?
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