A different view of the fight for Taiwan (if one comes)

In that scenario, you're turning one of the most densely populated urban areas into a battlefield - a battlefield that people cannot escape from.

Civilian casualties would be horrendous.

— PLAOps (@PLAOpsOSINT) November 17, 2022

I hadn't considered it because as usual I was looking at the lineup of forces.

The civilian population of Taiwan will be ravaged.

The loss of life would be horrendous.

I've always wondered why the Taiwanese were always so forward leaning with their defense preps.  It has always been biased towards preventing a landing instead of trying to defend in depth (what little they have).

So instead of just waging a major conflict between two super powers with the hope that it doesn't escalate (sinking a super carrier and losing 5,000 Sailors...that alone could flip this into a horror zone), you also have to consider the most massive humanitarian effort in the last 100 years.

Assuming we want the Taiwanese in the West, then you're talking about an evacuation on a scale that would overwhelm the combined capabilities of the Western World and most of Asia too.

That's before we even talk about the economic consequences of the fight.

Do you really think that the US and China crossing swords wouldn't lead to a world wide depression, a total fracturing of the global supply chain and a realignment across the board that would change the world for generations?

This fight might be necessary (I'm not sure) but we better know before we engage.  Considering the talk coming out of the Pentagon I hope they're SERIOUSLY getting ducks in a row...and I mean a REAL "whole of govt" approach.

The war everyone is predicting will be nasty, will change the course of nations and will alter lives across the globe.

Taiwan is insufficient in food, water, and fuel. Turning the island into a battlefield leads to cascading failures of civil infrastructure simply as a byproduct of urban conflict.

If PLA seizes the island, the US will need to dislodge them. i.e. more destruction

— PLAOps (@PLAOpsOSINT) November 17, 2022

No matter how a 🇺🇸-🇨🇳 conflict over Taiwan turns out, Taiwan is the one that loses because Taiwan is the one that has to eat all the munitions from both sides.

All the economic, political, and social gains it has made will be erased in such a conflict.

— PLAOps (@PLAOpsOSINT) November 17, 2022

Lastly make no mistake. The Chinese will get to shore. Fighting will take place ON LAND. The crazy thing? The USMC will not be constructed to properly conduct an opposed landing against that force to contest the Chinese and will probably have to rely on either Taiwanese forces to hold an airport or the 82nd will have to jump in to seize one! A port you say? When was the last time you saw the Marine Corps conduct a port seizure exercise?

A fight over Taiwan will be a fucking mess.