On the topic of Marine Littoral Regiments (MLRs), the team found what I have suspected: that while these units are nice to have, they lack the sheer number of weapons to really move the needle in a large-scale conflict like this.

Another key takeaway, and one that shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s spent much time contemplating modern naval warfare - expect heavy losses at sea, on both side. Typical for the game: 2 US CVNs and 7-20 major US warships. For China 50 or so major surface ships. pic.twitter.com/nCdJokLwti

— Tom Shugart (@tshugart3) February 8, 2023

This ENTIRE Twitter Thread is worth reading.

While I highlighted the part about MLRs because its tearing up the Marine Corps I simply used that to highlight what a waste of resources they are.  The Army's Multi-Domain Brigades will have sufficient firepower (or at least on paper) to "move the needle".

So much makes sense now.

Of course the Navy would be hesitant to build the modernized LST if the results of wargaming are as described.

Why build targets that will be destroyed at the enemies leisure?

But the rest of the analysis by Tom Shugart is stunning.

Once again, in this wargame, we're looking at 90% of US forces DESTROYED IN THEIR BASES!

We've seen national authority stymied by balloons when it comes to their decision making.  What will happen if they're faced with 30K casualties before they even know we're at war?

Taiwan is un-defendable.  It's too close to China and only a ROBUST defense treaty with the Philippines that allow permanent US basing rights along with the development and deployment of MASSIVE numbers of anti-ship missiles coupled with authorizing the commanding general of the Pacific fleet authority to act in defense of both Taiwan and US forces do we even have a chance of success (and that's so dangerous it shouldn't even be considered).

In other words.  

When it comes to defending Taiwan we're fucked.