via NY Post
In the opening weeks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European Union foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell placed his hopes in China to resolve the conflict.
“There is no alternative,” Borrell said. “We cannot be the mediators, that is clear. And it cannot be the US either. Who else? It has to be China, I trust in that.”
Note. I felt the same. China missed a massive opportunity with that one but I'm sure they balanced playing peace-keeper vs weakening the US. Weakening the US won.
A year later, Borrell’s faith has proven misplaced, as China has only disappointed Western policymakers. Once the repository of American and European hopes, Beijing has shown no interest in restraining Russia and restoring the pre-war European order.
Instead, it has leveraged the Ukraine war to begin building an alternative, Sino-centric system.
Its efforts are bearing fruit: As Chinese President Xi Jinping told Russian President Vladimir Putin at the end of their three-day summit in Moscow last week, “Right now we’re seeing a change we haven’t seen for 100 years, and we’re driving this change together.”
The change Xi references is most evident in the Middle East, where Russia’s war on Ukraine is driving America’s Gulf ally Saudi Arabia into the embrace of China.
China this month brokered the normalization of ties between Riyadh and Tehran in a diplomatic coup that shocked Washington.
How weak is our diplomacy? So weak that the State Dept is an afterthought internationally and the Pentagon has become our foreign diplomatic corps.
Traditionally, Riyadh would have looked to Washington for support as Tehran wields its Russian bayonet, but the Biden administration has shown little interest in deterring Iran. With war in Europe, it has little appetite for another hard-power competition in a second theater.
Unable to rely on the United States, Saudi Arabia is open to China as an alternative.
As China flexes its diplomatic muscle, it will work to establish an energy, trading and financial system in the Gulf that sits apart from the United States: an international protection racket under the aegis of Beijing.
China’s similar strategy for Europe explains why Beijing has shown no interest in constraining Russia.
Just as Iran’s attacks on the US-dominated Middle Eastern order have prompted the Gulf states to hedge their bets, China believes Russia’s attack on the US alliance system in Europe will make countries there think twice about their transatlantic ties.
If the war leaves Moscow entrenched in Ukraine, China will sell itself as an alternative partner for securing the European order.
If that wasn't bad enough then check out this last part.
If the war drags on and Russia’s dependence on China increases, some Westerners may look to China as the conflict’s indispensable interlocutor.
So instead of cracking down on Russia, China is intervening on its behalf.
Beijing has assisted Moscow with sanctions evasion and supplied parts for weapons. Most recently, it also shipped assault rifles and body armor to Moscow despite Western warnings against such transfers.
To test Western redlines even further, China could ramp up its provision of parts with military applications or send large numbers of weapons to third countries with friendly ties to Russia.
This would confront Washington and Brussels with a dilemma they would rather not face.
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