The current amphibious force can meet the military’s missions for the immediate future, Vice Adm. Sara Joyner

 via USNI News

The proposal does show the Navy buying an America-class amphibious assault ship in FY 2027 and starting to buy the Landing Ship Medium – previously known as the Light Amphibious Warship – in FY 2025. The Navy would buy another Landing Ship Medium in FY 2026, followed by two each in FY 2027 and FY 2028, according to the current procurement scheme. The platform is meant to shuttle small units of Marines between islands and shorelines in the Pacific, where they could set up expeditionary bases and fire anti-ship missiles.

So they'll have 18 by 2040?

 The current amphibious force can meet the military’s missions for the immediate future, Vice Adm. Sara Joyner, the director of Force Structure, Resources and Assessment on the Joint Staff (J8), told reporters Monday.

This actually makes sense.  The Ground Combat Element is smaller and lighter than in the past.  Quite honestly when it comes to tonnage moved by the Gator Navy for a Marine Regiment, with 31 large amphibious ships they'll have excess capacity.

Berger got called on what he's been saying and the numbers did not match the rhetoric.

Add Landing Ship Mediums to the mix and even with the fall in numbers to 24, the USMC will have more than enough ships to fulfill its new mission sets.

 “We believe that’s vital to the Indo-Pacific region in particular, and as we look at all the investments we’re making, for example, in the Marine Corps’ Force Design 2030, of course it includes the ability to move around our Marine forces,” Hicks said.

“The question really is what is the right mix of capabilities for today and for tomorrow, and that’s where we’re taking time to look at what that right mix of capabilities looks like, including, of course … in the case you’re pointing out on the amphibious forces.”

The bean counters always get the last word.  The MEU hasn't evolved.  I dare say its de-volved to a point where it can only perform the recon/counter recon mission & EABO.

There just isn't justification for the legacy amphibious ships in this new construct.

Add to all of the above all the talk from inside Marine Corps circles to use the ships as anything but amphibious assault and they become a luxury instead of a necessity.

Story here, but its obvious that this is another failure of Berger and his team.  They pushed so hard for FD2030 that they failed to take into account the ramifications of such a dramatic transformation.

My prediction.

The Gator Fleet will sink to 20 large amphibs.  11 big decks and 9 San Antonio class ships.

FD2030 will go down in Marine Corps history as Berger's folly.