Combined Arms Breach....this is what Ukraine will be facing if they actually counterattack Russia. Confidence is not high that they'll be successful.

 

Think about this. Performing a combined arms breach is in the top 3 of military operations. Amphibious Assault being the most difficult in my opinion (no worry about that though...Berger gave up on it, but maybe the US Army will pick it up), Airborne Assault and last a combined arms breach.

Ya know what.  Scratch that.  Airborne Assaults are planned with the idea that LGOP will have to formulate plans as they go so move CAB up to number two.

After seeing all the fighting that we have up to this point do you think that the Ukrainians will be able to perform this complex military operation?

During Desert Storm the US Army and USMC were conducting CAB all up and down the line while the French did that deep desert feint.

But that was basically NATO (yep look at the roster) against one sorta medium power in the desert.

This is a Ukraine supplied by NATO going up against Russia.  Check out the tweet below to see what they're going up against. Its almost textbook field fortification work.

For context here, these defensive lines are littered with AT mines in advance of the dragons teeth with shallow trenches that stop wheeled vehicles. Obstacle belts are not impenetrable defenses nor are they meant to be. They offer staggered obstacles that must be cleared one by https://t.co/xso0Fw0IF8 pic.twitter.com/bNuBmZO9aS

— Ukraine Memes for NATO Teens (@LivFaustDieJung) May 25, 2023

If Ukraine was smart they would delay the offensive. They need 3 brigades that are fully up to speed on conducting a combined arms breach and they're gonna have to have at least another 3 that are ready to exploit the breakthrough.

From where I'm sitting they don't have it right now.

If they do decide to go now then the Russians are gonna put them in self-made kill boxes and shred Ukrainian forces.

I hope the White House has a serious leash on Zelensky.  If they do push ahead the images of burned up Abrams/Leopards/Challengers with crews hanging out of hatches burned up is gonna be a public relations nightmare.

They won't wait though.

War is politics and the politics of this fight means that if Ukraine fails and gets a bunch of its sons killed the blame will shift to them needing wonder weapon a/b or c, and how people like me calling for peace talks kept the various administrations from giving the Ukes what they needed.