They're lowering expectations for Ukraine's counter offensive

 via CNBC

Ukraine has a lot to prove with this latest counteroffensive, having to show its international partners that the continued supply of NATO weaponry is worth it, used effectively and can be decisive in the outcome of the war.

U.S. State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller said Tuesday that the White House would not comment on “twists and turns of the counteroffensive or battlefield updates on what is obviously a very active and ongoing situation. We’ll leave that to the Ukrainian military to speak to.”

RUSI’s Reynolds said that Western-donated weaponry wouldn’t radically change Ukraine’s performance on the battlefield, however.

“I think a lot of the capabilities they’ve been gifted have been useful but the Ukrainian military is still working to absorb a lot of the equipment it’s been given, a lot of it’s been provided piecemeal,” he said, noting that, as such “we certainly shouldn’t have expected any radically different performance based on sort of Western equipment.”

I stated that they launched this assault too soon.  That they should have waited.  Additionally I surmised that it wasn't a call by military leadership to do this now, but by their political masters.  More from the article.

 Analysts say there is a concern that Ukraine is under too much pressure to perform for its international partners who are, ultimately, sustaining its military efforts to repel Russia over the longer-term.

“The importance of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is high, and so are the expectations,” Teneo’s Tursa noted, adding that, in this respect, “Ukraine has partially become a victim of its successful counteroffensives in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions last year.”

“The long wait for Ukraine’s latest offensive and the arrival of advanced Western weapons have further raised expectations and optimism, which might prove counterproductive for Kyiv in the long run,” he noted.

RUSI’s Reynolds agreed, noting that “I think expectations were set very, very high ... and I think they were too high.”

Here 

Everyone wants to declare Zelensky a great statesman, a wartime leader and damn near a Saint.

The reality?  He's an actor and a showman.

He likes to "move the crowd".

So when it comes to this counter offensive he's done the showman thing and let his arrogance wag his tongue.  Instead of being moderate, informing the international audience and his countrymen that this would be hard.  Casualties would be high and that they should steel themselves to a hard fought campaign, he instead insisted on certain types of weaponry which lends to the mindset that if we have this we can end the war tomorrow.

Back on task.

The placement of this article in a business rag is telling.  For better or worse, our business community is able to push Congress to act in certain that the general public can't.

I kinda read this as a message that they're gonna comeback for even MORE money to aid Ukraine.  

The politics of this are getting untenable.

Our cities are sewer fires.  Our infrastructure is trash.  The American people will not tolerate the sending of treasure to Ukraine for much longer when they're dealing with increased taxes, crime, open borders and other non-sense that has to be dealt with here at home.

The Ukrainians boxed themselves in.  Maybe it was foreign leaders.  I don't know.  What I do know is that even if successful the lines will move only a bit and it will take tremendous propaganda to spin this into a win.

My opinion?

This counter offensive now was a Hail Mary shot to end the war this year OR to set conditions favorable to Ukraine to make peace talks possible on their terms.

The sad thing?

I truly believe the military leadership of both Ukraine and Russia want to turn this off.  Any human should want to turn this off. 

If you're a cheerleader for this war then be advised.  They have a foreign legion and they're taking men from 18 to 65.  Even if you're at the edges of that range I'm sure they'll accept your service.  Put your words into action.  FIGHT FOR UKRAINE is here (under construction) but they'll put you in contact with people that will instruct you on how to get into the fight.  Put up or shut up. But stop barking at the moon.