Compass Points take on China's Z-day war game...

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via CP

The whole purpose of the drastic reorganization of the Marine Corps under Force Design 2030 was to address the "pacing challenge" of China. Marines would be placed inside China's Weapons Engagement Zone and shoot at Chinese ships with missiles. It was claimed that the small Marine units on islands throughout the first island chain would create a critical set of problems for the Chinese Navy.

That was the theory of Force Design 2030.

The Chinese have just conducted a comprehensive "Z-Day" total war scenario. As reported in the Asia Times:

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China has just simulated a total war scenario at sea with the United States, an exercise that highlighted the People’s Liberation Army-Navy’s formidable challenges in a potential high-intensity conflict with an advanced, determined and highly-capable adversary.

South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that researchers from the PLA’s Unit 91404 recently added a “total war” scenario when testing and evaluating the performance of new weapons. Unit 91404 is responsible for the sea tests of some of China’s latest and most potent naval weapons.

The SCMP report notes that the researchers published their “Z-day” total war scenario in the peer-reviewed Chinese Journal of Ship Research last month. The report mentions that the researchers assumed that the Chinese military was under all-out attack by a hypothetical “blue alliance” with Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.

In the simulation, the PLA-N had nearly 50 destroyers, with each attacked with 11 missiles and more than three torpedoes coming from multiple directions.

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As far as Compass Points can determine, Marine missile units on islands were not even considered worth worrying about in the Chinese Z-Day scenario. Missiles from US ships? The Chinese Navy worries about them. Missiles from US submarines? The Chinese Navy worries about them. US air launched cruise missiles? The Chinese Navy worries about them. Missiles from island Marines? Not worth worrying about.

Marines for decades have had a particular role to play in global United States foreign policy. Marines embarked as part of a fully capable Amphibious Ready Group - Marine Expeditionary Unit (ARG-MEU) allow the worldwide Combatant Commanders to get the flexible, capable Marine MAGTF on site quickly, ready to deter, assist, or fight.

If the Marine Corps theory of Force Design 2030 was accurate, the Chinese would have centered their whole Z-Day scenario around the question: "How do we deal with those island Marines?"  Instead, of focusing on the missile Marines, China apparently feels it can confidently ignore them. Why would Marine leaders ever degrade the ARG-MEU in a futile effort to be relevant as a missile force?

Compass Points salutes all those in Congress and elsewhere keeping the ARG-MEU strong.