Tuesday, August 04, 2015

Long Range Strike Bomber...the next USAF budget grab...


via Defense Industry Daily.
A GAO report released at the end of July has detailed how US government expenditure on strategic bombers is expected to reach $58 billion over the next ten years. This figure is projected to be split between the development and manufacture of the Air Force's new strategic bomber, the Long-Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B), and upgrading of two in-service platforms, the B2 Spirit and B-52 Stratofortress. The LRS-B program is expected to eat up $33.1 billion over the 2015-2024 period, whilst the upgrading of the B-2 and B-52 fleet is expected to total $24.4 billion. The LRS-B program is due to announce a contract decision in August or September, slipping from a previous timetable of a June or July announcement. The report also forecast $1.3 billion spend on new tailkits for the B61-12 nuclear bomb, which was successfully flight tested in mid-July.
Here.

First.  If you're not getting the Defense Industry Daily e-mails in your inbox everyday then you're missing out.  Not only do they meticulously keep track of programs but they also cover each programs HISTORY!  Awesome stuff.

Next.  Its time to have an adult conversation about nuclear deterrence AND delivery of weapons in case of war.

Its about payloads, not platforms which means that the Long Range Strike Bomber is NOT NEEDED!  The Ohio class replacement yes!  A follow on to the Minuteman missile yes!  But the LRSB?  Fuck no!

I have yet to hear a justification for the LRSB.  All I've heard is that its needed.  But tell me.  For what mission?  Nuclear penetration?  Its not gonna make it.  Maritime strike?  The B-52 will do the USAF portion of that fine.  Deep strike?  F-35 or even better F-15E.  So why and for what do we need it?

15th MEU conducting ops in Djibouti....photos by Sgt. Steve H. Lopez

ARTA BEACH, Djibouti (July 29, 2015) U.S. Marines with Light Armored Reconnaissance Detachment, Battalion Landing Team 3rd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit, engage targets in a Light Armored Vehicle (LAV-25) during sustainment training. Elements of the 15th MEU are ashore in Djibouti for sustainment training to maintain and enhance the skills they developed during their pre-deployment training period. The 15th MEU is currently deployed in support of maritime security operations and theater security cooperation efforts in the U.S. 5th and 6th Fleet areas of operation. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Steve H. Lopez/Released)





Monday, August 03, 2015

Retired US Army General warns..."The Army is breaking down"

Thanks to Matthew for the link!

via Weekly Standard
It happened after World War II and it happened after Vietnam. Now, after years of repeated deployments, the Army, as Robert H. Scales writes the U.S. Army is breaking down.

The Obama administration just announced a 40,000 reduction in the Army’s ranks. But the numbers don’t begin to tell the tale. Soldiers stay in the Army because they love to go into the field and train; Defense Secretary Ash Carter recently said that the Army will not have enough money for most soldiers to train above the squad level this year. Soldiers need to fight with new weapons; in the past four years, the Army has canceled 20 major programs, postponed 125 and restructured 124. The Army will not replace its Reagan-era tanks, infantry carriers, artillery and aircraft for at least a generation. Soldiers stay in the ranks because they serve in a unit ready for combat; fewer than a third of the Army’s combat brigades are combat-ready.
Scales knows of what he writes. He is a retired Major General and former commandant of the U.S. Army War College.
Here.

Interesting.  American Mercenary views this as being a normal part of doing business.  I viewed it as being alarming because after previous wars we had periods of peace.  Now we have the Pentagon talking about a 50 year or more conflict.

Downsizing as much as they're doing is crazy.

Its good to see the General's club finally start taking notice.  They're a bit late on this and other subjects but maybe, just maybe they can raise their heads...scan the horizon and see the mess that's being created.  Friendships and golden parachute gigs SHOULD take a back seat to the defense of a nation.

Motley Fool's F-35 (Lockheed Martin) stock advice...




SIDENOTE: Are you tired of me banging the drum on the F-35? Well get over it! From my chair this one project is putting in peril EVERY defense program going or projected. Worse, if the USAF gets their way then they're going to further drain the coffers with another stealth project, the Next Gen Bomber. Meanwhile ships, armored vehicles, subs....even testing of a replacement for the 5.56 isn't happening (you guys sold me on moving to a larger round). So hang tough. We have to talk about this because its the ball game when it comes to our nations defense. Either we stop this shit bird or we watch the F-35 mafia wreck the defense of the Western world.

Hellfires for LCS? Time to bring back the Sea Wolf concept...

The US Navy has operated for years in densely packed shipping lanes, where friend had to be sorted from foe its entire existence.


In World War 2, it used PT Boats to patrol close in shore.  Its called the "littoral" battlespace today but the theory was the same.

We would use our small boats to attack their small boats and keep them off our capital ships.  It worked too.  If you have the time, read about the history of these PT Boats in the war.  They took on ships twice, sometimes three and four times their size and gave much better than they got.  Additionally they did the other tasks that weren't as glamorous but important.  They served as couriers, picked up downed aviators, inserted coastal watchers and special units, and even served as troop transports in a pinch.

Fast forward to the Vietnam war and the same problem reared its ugly head.  How do you patrol a long shoreline filled with boats of all type and at the same time protect your ships AND provide fire support to forces ashore?  There was no LCS, but the solution was almost magical.  Again we saw small boats...this time called Monitors (converted landing craft that were fitted with extra armor and weapons) and helicopters nicknamed "Sea Wolves".


While I like the idea of "modern day Monitors" I don't think it would be accepted.  They were able to absorb tremendous amounts of fire (to include B40 rockets...a variant of the RPG2) these slow moving boats would be too vulnerable on a modern battlefield.

Why am I bringing this up?  Check out this Defense24 article...
American Navy carried out a series of shooting for small surface targets using modernized Longbow Hellfire anti-tank missile.The missiles have hit the arming of ships to the offshore activities of LCS.

The tests were organized in June. within the work on the next task SSMM module (Surface-to-Surface Missile Module) for ships to offshore activities. Task modules are generally permit the preparation of the watercraft to perform a specific mission.depending on the needs.
SSMM LCS ships will enable small and high-speed combat surface ships, the destruction of which does not pay to use expensive and large-type Harpoon anti-ship missiles. They will complement the fore cannon calibres 57 mm and rockets Sear (Google translate took a powder here for some reason).
During the shooting of rocket used remotely controlled surface targets HSMST (high speed maneuvering surface targets). Indeed they are the equivalent of high-speed boats posing a serious threat asymmetric for American ships.
Longbow Hellfire Missiles fired from a ship in the US Navy auxiliary "Relentless" hit seven to eight maneuvering targets. Tests simultaneous rally ended with three goals, which ultimately were hit.
SSMM modules have come to equip LCS ships at the end of 2017.
So a rapid firing 57mm cannon isn't enough to take care of small boats in Navy simms?  I find that interesting in itself.  If a rapid fire 57mm cannon that reaches out to about 10 miles can't do the job then something is definitely wrong.  But putting that aside for a moment.  What is the most effective modern weapon system to fight small boats?

Helicopters!



The US Navy should revive the Sea Wolf concept and seemed well on their way with the EFSS package adopted from the Army for the MH-60's.  Taking it a step further, if the laser guided 2.75 rocket is adopted then you get more potential "kills" per sortie.

The LCS is undoubtedly under armed.  Slapping short ranged (comparatively) missiles on it is not the answer....Hellfire is a great weapon, but not for the LCS.

Avro Arrow - Bourdeau Industries (concept pic)...


F-35 news. Your Monday morning challenge.


Let me take a few to show you why the media annoys me so much.  via DefenseOne this morning...
The battle-ready milestone marks the most significant moment for the $400 billion program, the most expensive project in Pentagon history.
“The weapons system is now in the warfighters’ hands and can be called upon to do its mission,” Air Force Lt. Gen. Christopher Bogdan, the F-35 program manager said in a statement.
To obtain battle-ready status, which the military dubs initial operational capability, a new weapon must meet a series of benchmarks. The Marines wrung the jet out in a recent five-day, live-fire evaluation. The verdict: today’s jets can perform basic military missions effectively in combat.
“It is capable of conducting close air support, offensive and defensive counter air, air interdiction, assault support escort and armed reconnaissance as part of a Marine Air Ground Task Force, or in support of the joint force,” Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Joseph Dunford said in a statement. Future versions of the F-35, of course, will receive various improvements.
Wow.  So you have the Commandant of the Marine Corps and a Lt Gen in the Air Force that's managing the F-35 program all saying that the plane is ready for combat.

If I glanced at the F-35 and wasn't following its trials and tribulations carefully I'd think that all was well.  But wait.  Check this out from DefenseOne back in May of this year....
“[I]f I had my druthers, I’d rather not deploy it right away, because I’d like to build some momentum in the program and build the instructor base,” Lt. Gen. Jon Davis, the Marine Corps deputy commandant for aviation, said Tuesday at a Defense Writers Group breakfast.
The Marines plan to declare 10 of their F-35B jets battle-ready in July. But the Corps is still racing to train instructor pilots on the short-takeoff-vertical-landing aircraft, and sending any of them off to war would disrupt the carefully planned training pipeline.
Davis didn’t completely rule out the possibility that the F-35s might be quickly deployed against the Islamic State in Iraq. “It could have a very great capability out there against the ISIS targets out there,” Davis said. “If they wanted to deploy it that way [and] we want to deploy it that way, we could.”
Build momentum?  After sacrificing the Ground Combat Element on the altar of the F-35 they still need to build momentum?  We'll come back to this later in the week.  I'm following a little hint and crunching numbers on manpower requirements and where billets are going and its going to shock many....early hint?  The Aviation side of the house is about to gobble up the Marine Corps in money and staffing.  But back on task.....

Your Monday morning challenge is simple.

When has the USMC ever declared a weapon system combat ready and not sent it to war with the new car smell still on it?  Name one other system and you'll win the prize, but be warned.  I took a half hour on this and couldn't come up with a thing.  Can you?

Duterte says America will never die for PH....another reason why a Pacific "NATO" is a pipe dream...

via Inquirer.net...
“America would never die for us,” Mayor Rodrigo Duterte told visiting military attachés, including those from the United States and China, during a discussion of the South China Sea territorial dispute here on Thursday.
“If America cared, it would have sent its aircraft carriers and missile frigates the moment China started reclaiming land in contested territory, but no such thing happened,” said Duterte, a potential presidential candidate in next year’s general elections.
And then this...
Why can’t you leave us alone, allow us to fish in the area, which we’ve been doing for centuries. Those are important sources of food for us. Are you going to kill us with hunger?” Duterte said, addressing himself to the Chinese military attaché.
“Don’t oppress us, you’re already a rich country while lots of our people are poor. We’re not going to make war. Will you allow us to die of hunger?” he said.
Duterte spoke at a closed-door meeting of military attachés from 20 countries at The Marco Polo Hotel that discussed regional security and the territorial disputes between China and five smaller neighbors in the region.
Here.

I told ya so.  Many questioned whether a rather simple scenario lined out in my fictional story would actually freeze the nations of the Pacific and leave us standing alone in a fight against China.

Are you kidding me?

The reality is stark.  Most of the nations in that region are simply using us to their advantage.  The idea of a Pacific "NATO" is a pipe dream.  The rivalries are too strong, China despite its aggression is seen as a counter weight to the US and unity in the region is an impossibility.

Second.  This guy spoke to military representatives from 20 countries and delivered this message?  Uh...wow.

I thought the Philippines was ready for warmer relations with the US.  If a leading politician is speaking like this then maybe not.

If you're asking for help then you can't demand that the help be provided on your terms.  We should walk away if the Philippines can't get with OUR program.

Sunday, August 02, 2015

Forget Syria. Start focusing on Yemen!

via Defense Blog
via Defense Blog

If you click the link under each photo, it will take you to Defense Blog that found pics of AMX-56 LeClerc Main Battle Tanks and Humvees mounting quad Kornet Anti-Tank missiles in Yemen from the UAE.

I make note of it on this blog because the GCC appears to be becoming more involved in fighting that seems to be intensifying there.

I think we're all missing a major story in Yemen.  Independent journalist aren't covering it (and I don't blame them) but I get get the impression that the proxy war between Iran and the GCC is reaching a new phase.

Forget Syria.  Its becoming a sideshow.  Turkey's assault on the Kurds seems like an attempt to shape borders to their liking.  My guess is that a stalemate is being "shaped" by the powers that be.  Yemen is a different kettle of fish.  The GCC and Iran are playing for keeps. Start focusing on Yemen.

Saturday, August 01, 2015

China's 200th Mechanized Infantry Division on exercise...via China Defense Blog...

Leading the charge is the Satellite Communications APC, based on the ZBD89 Chassis, an increasingly common sign of today's PLA orbat.


More pics here.