WTF. The Turks have lost their fucking minds!

I wake up, look at the news and Turkey has shot down a Russian Jet?

They've lost their fucking minds.

More to come...oh and I predicted this but wow.  Still think I wear a tinfoil hat?

NOTE:  MSNBC is barely covering this news.  They're focused on politics.  The same applies to Fox.  No one seems to consider this news that could change the course of nations.  Is this really no big deal?

NOTE 1:  The Turkish military websites are just reporting this news...no chest thumping.  I wonder if they sense that a line was crossed against a country that doesn't play?  You can screw with the US but Russia?

NOTE 2:  I wonder if the Russians will declare a "no fly zone" above the Kurds?  That would annoy and scare the shit out of Turkey.

Something is screwy with the UK's F-35 numbers...

Image taken from Think Defence Blog (full story on the SDSR here).

Check this out from Think Defence...

No details of timings, numbers per squadron, basing (rumour is Conningsby nd Lossiemouth for Typhoon), training, or where the air and ground and air crews are coming from.
‘We will maintain our plan’ is not an order.
By 2023, the UK is planned to have 42 F-35B’s in service, remember, this is a JOINT Combat Aircraft, not just for carrier strike. This translates into two squadrons (809 NAS and 617 SQN) plus the OCU.

Yeah.  He's absolutely right.  But what has me spinning is the infographic that TD has from the SDSR.  Two squadrons of F-35s.  Then they talk about buying 138 over the life of the program.

The Brits are being cheeky as hell.  First we find out that the first 18 or so planes  will be maintenance and training platforms and now this?

Something screwy is going on with the numbers here.  My opinion of the program continues and this attempt at positive news from our Brit brothers doesn't change the trajectory of things at all.  

The F-35 is in a flat spin headed out to sea....The Brits are reaching for the ejection handle...they just don't want the front seater to know it yet...

Breaking! State Dept issues worldwide travel alert!

Fox News is saying that several terrorist groups are planning attacks against Westerners.

In addition to ISIS at least five other groups were named.

My take?  

We're at war folks...whether you like or not...whether you're ready or not.

Russian troops led an offensive in Syria?

via Washington Beacon.

Jerusalem—Russia has sent ground forces into battle for the first time in Syria,according to Kuwait daily, al-Rai.
The troops drove rebel forces from strategic positions, said the newspaper, which is close to the Damascus regime. It did not say when the troops went into action and there was no mention of casualties. The Russians are not known to have sizable forces in Syria but a small number of tanks have been seen.
Until now, Russia has confined itself to strikes by aircraft and cruise missiles against rebel forces and the Islamic State in Syria.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week in a meeting with military officials that they must prepare for the next stage of the battle.
“Our objectives are being fulfilled and fulfilled well,” he said, according to the RIA Novosti news agency. “But for now that is not enough to cleanse Syria of rebels and terrorists and to protect Russians from possible terrorist attacks. The military campaign has not achieved enough and a next phase is needed.”

Here.

Everyone forgets the 800 pound gorilla in the room when it comes to Russia/US relations.

Putin can't stand Obama and vice versa.

With every move that Obama makes, Putin counters.  It makes sense tactically and diplomatically.  It shows that Russia is willing to put "skin in the game" when it comes to supporting allies.

But I also get the sense that Putin also likes the idea of tweaking Obama....I can't explain it but I feel like he gets enjoyment from humiliating him.

This went from being interesting to fascinating.  Forget popcorn.  Put some burgers on the grill and roll the lazy-boy outside.  We're about to see a show.

S-300's are being delivered to Iran...

via Sputnik

On November 9, Russia signed a new contract with Iran on the delivery of "about 300" S-300 air defense systems, according to Russia’s state technologies corporation Rostec.
The delivery of Russian-made missiles is expected to be completed by the end of 2015, Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehqan said on November 10.

Here.

And with this the failure of two president's over the span of 16 or so years is complete.

Iran will not only get nuclear weapons but they'll have the means to protect them.  All the talk about F-35's being able to destroy S-300's is wishful thinking.  These missiles, as part of an integrated missile defense system, will make any attacking force suffer badly.

Oh and consider this.  The Iranians were able to knock down one of our stealth drones that is orders of magnitude more stealthy than the F-35.

Saudi Arabia will get nuclear weapons and once they do (probably before the end of this year or early next), my prediction about ISIS being a pleasant memory will come true.  We're going to pivot to worrying about nukes in the middle east.  Nuclear war there is no longer a matter of if but when.

About those new Brit "Strike" Brigades. UPDATED!

via Sputnik

The UK will also create two new 'strike brigades' by 2025 to be rapidly deployable, able to self-deploy thousands of kilometers, and with a much lower logistic footprint. They will use the new Ajax family (previously known as Scout) range of vehicles, comprising 6 variants and almost 600 armoured vehicles.

Wow.  Two new "Strike" Brigades built around the Ajax family of vehicles?  Don't quite understand this move.  They're already covered when it comes to rapid deployment ops with their Air Assault Brigade.   Quite honestly it just seems like a bit of changing a deck chairs, and using an item that they have already started to procure and to call their already established Mechanised Infantry Brigades a new name.

The wording is also suspicious.  The Strike Brigades will be rapidly deployable and able to self deploy  thousands of kilometers with a lower logistic footprint?

That sounds like the US Army when talking about the Stryker Brigades circa 2003 or there abouts.

More to come on the Brit SDSR.  Just starting to dig thru the numbers.

UPDATED:  

THINK DEFENCE Blog is covering the SDSR so I don't have to...first he seems to agree with my thinking on the new "Strike" Brigades...

Follow the conversation and thinking here and here.

Protolab PMPV 6x6

Thanks to Galvars for the link!

via uusisuomi.fi

Finnish Protolab Ltd has developed a top-protected personnel transport vehicle for defense and crisis-management operation.
Protolab PMPV 6x6 is the manufacturer of the load-carrying capacity with mobility and competitive, but at the same time inexpensive multi-purpose vehicle with a strong mine warfare, a seat at sirpalesuojaus meet the modern crisis management requirements for the official use of defense and security.
- Started in 2009 and has progressed to now test drive phase, with the first prototype is driven road and off-road tests will tell Protolab Oy, Chairman of the Board of DirectorsJukka Kemppainen.

Here and another story with video here.

Remarkably good timing on this by Finish Protolab.  The  growth industry for at least the moment in defense/security circles is focused on domestic actions.  That means that MRAPs are about to become the "hotness".

SLDInfo has the best answer yet on why France didn't go to NATO for help...

via SLDInfo.

It is most important to note that when President Hollande declared a state of war with ISIS, he deliberately chose to invoke Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty, not Article V of the NATO treaty.
Article 42.7 is the “solidarity clause” that states if a member of the European Union is the victim of “armed aggression on its territory”. other EU member states have an “obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power.”
In essence, France chose to work within a European framework, without formally drawing in NATO and the U.S. direction that would entail.

If that isn't juicy enough for you, check out the reality of the Iranian nuclear deal...

When analysts and intelligence experts were highlighting the warming sun of the Arab Spring, there was much hope: democracy was in the air and the gap between Islam and the West might be closing.
Rather than a warming sun, close observers felt an icy chill from the events of this Fall in Paris, and an evident European strategic shift away from the agenda set by Washington.
Major changes in geostrategic forces began when the U.S. President backed off his Syria Red Line, and then pushed relentlessly his own objectives with Iran while dismissing French, Israeli, and Gulf Arab reservations to the U.S.-Iran accord.
The Russian decision to accept Assad’s invitation to intervene militarily in Syria, and enlarge its military base presence there laid down an historic marker for a significant reconfiguration of power, not only in the Gulf, but also the entire Eastern Mediterranean region.

So not only do we have the answer to the oft asked question of why France didn't evoke article 5, but we also have a warning...one I've been making since the start of this mess.

"a significant reconfiguration of power" 

We can already look to the future on this one.  The Obama admin's signature foreign policy achievement will be hailed as nothing but a failure

What happens after ISIS is gone?

via Sputnik.

Terrorists of the so-called ‘Islamic State’, or ISIL, keep on surrendering to Kurdish forces with several hundred more already having capitulated, according to local media.
ISIL militants have been surrendering to advancing Peshmerga troops on the regular basis since supply routes connecting Iraq and Syria have been cut off heavy pounding by the US-led coalition airstrikes, a frontline commander of Kurdish forces in Gwer, Qadr Qadr, told Kurdish media outlet Bas News on Sunday.

Interesting.  It seems that only once an issue becomes a crisis does the Obama Administration deem it worthy of attention.  Ok, even if you think that's unfair let me ask you this simple question.

What happens after ISIS is gone?

I contend that ISIS, operating in an open desert in technicals with a few armored vehicles thrown in, is hardly a difficult tactical problem.  Lt's going thru the Basic Course face bigger challenges.  Go to a good SNCO division course and you'll face more difficult.  Long story short.  The lie that fighting ISIS would be a "long" war...a generational war was just that.  So what happens when they're finally put in the ground.  Oh and I remind you that all the world's militaries are facing off against a force that numbers between 20 and 40K troops.

My prediction?

Attention will once again focus on internal issues.  The states in the Middle East will no longer have an enemy to point at.  The US, EU and Russia will no longer have a "credible" foil.  Will it lead to even more instability because all the rivalry will no longer have a cover?  Will Iran and Saudi Arabia finally get to it instead of using proxies?

I wonder about this entire "campaign" against ISIS.

I'm repeating myself but keep it simple.  We have the world united to fight 20 to 40 thousand troops in the open desert.   Yet instead of killing this threat we allow it to fester.  Now we see the Kurds, and the Syrian Army finally making major pushes against them?

This whole fight has never added up.  Not at all.  But once its over the real fights will begin...and fight against ISIS will look like happy times.

Brussels remains under threat, New York does drills and the word games over refugees continues...

via CNN

Children in France on Monday will have their bags searched at the front doors of schools, while administrators will be tasked with verifying the identities of everyone on school grounds, according to the Ministry of National Education website. Gatherings around the front doors of schools are discouraged, the ministry said, explaining parents should drop off their kids and promptly leave and principals should designate on-campus sites where students can gather and older students can smoke. Field trips to the Paris area are canceled until next week, though trips within the Paris region can resume, the ministry said.

How stupid are things in Brussels?  This report was posted 6 hours ago and the current reporting is that schools will be canceled on Monday.  Additionally there is some type of "police action" going on inside the city as I write this.  Brussels is in a hurt locker.  Even if there is no terrorist attack they've been exposed as the epicenter of Muslim Extremism in Europe AND they've been shown to be barely capable of dealing with the reality that this brings.   Meanwhile in New York...via NBCNewYork...

The exercise, executed jointly with the federal Department of Homeland Security, came just days before the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, one of the city's most high-profile events.
"In New York City, we are, at this time, very well-prepared and continually improving that preparedness," Police Commissioner William Bratton said outside the abandoned Bowery station in Lower Manhattan.

Hmm.  So they put together a terror drill of this size in a week?  That alone is highly unusual but ok.  My thinking?  They have something credible and this is a two'fer.  One to call the actors off and second to reassure the public.  As usual I could easily be wrong.

Last but not least.  I have to take another bite of this refugee word sausage that is being played. 

Above you see a newly built refugee camp in Jordan.  This is where the info that the refugees go thru a rigorous background check is coming from.  In these camps refugees are screened and their backgrounds gone over.  In these camps you'll find that the majority of people are women and children.  This is what the advocates are holding up as examples.  Below you see the flood of people into Europe...

This is where people like ME come up with the meme that the refugees are primarily (above 70%) male and of fighting age (I've always been told that this is between 16 and 65).  This is where the word sausage comes into play.  The liberals are using one example (the first) to defend the second example which has conservatives worried.

The most damning part?

The UN is saying that the mass of people rushing European borders should be designated refugees.  Which means that technically the liberals are telling the truth...but with a liars twist, a middle finger to honest debate and massive fuck you to the conservative elite that is trying to straddle the line on this issue.  Its all bullshit of course and we're left to the uninformed, and socially 'bendable' (meaning the people that raise their fingers in the air and follow whatever is popular) to determine the fate of nations on both sides of the Atlantic.

Personally, optimism is not high.