US Military Chiefs Warn Of 'Damaging' Cuts To Royal Marines

via Forces.net

Colonel Dan Sullivan warned that the relationship between the US Marine Corps (USMC) and its British counterpart would change if the proposed cut of 1,000 Royal Marines and UK's two amphibious assault ships are lost.

During a visit to London to attend a conference on the impact of technology on defence, The Times reporting him saying:

“My message is to articulate how important having that capability in our partner is, and how damaging I think it would be if our most important coalition partner potentially takes the hits that are projected right now.”

..........

 “From a military standpoint as the UK continues to diminish and as the Royal Marines in particular take a hit, I think that our view of what we will be able to do together in the future changes.”

Story here. 

Hmm.  Not sure why I'm just hearing alarm bells from US officials over UK defense cuts now.

The capability lost BEFORE now is much greater than any additional steps they're considering so I don't understand why things would change with regard to us working together. 

Is it the loss of two amphibious ships?  The potential loss of F-35 sales?  I'm really not sure but would love to know.

Diplomacy with North Korea looks to be on its 'last legs' as Trump openly ponders war

via Business Insider.

Multiple US government and congressional sources have said US diplomatic efforts with North Korea stand on their "last legs" as Pyongyang threatens more nuclear tests and Washington ponders all-out war.

The sources told NBC News on Wednesday that the efforts of Joseph Yun — a top US diplomat working with North Korea — to find a diplomatic solution to the missile crisis have all but completely broken down.

A US official told NBC that the sides have reached an impasse, a s North Korea apparently pursues completing its nuclear missile program above all else, and the US repeatedly states that it won't tolerate a nuclear-armed North Korea.

"It is not so much that North Korea is shutting down, it’s that the message from the US  government is, 'surrender without a fight or surrender with a fight,'" the official said. Another added that diplomatic efforts are on their "last legs."

Story here. 

Right on schedule. My prediction stands.  This winter.  Late this year, early next.

Expect some type of modified shock and awe.  They'll be massive strikes but targeted at a few sites.

I doubt very much that you'll see ground forces used...I don't think they'll actually try a decapitation raid...maybe a couple of MOABs dropped on the little fat dude but no Ranger/MARSOC raid into hell.

What I find funny is that everyone thinks that Trump is pushing this. 

He isn't.

He is taking the advice of his generals and Dunford practically shouted at the top of his lungs that N. Korea having nukes was unacceptable and that a fight would be necessary.

I'm sure they're planning to minimize escalation and I'm sure there are serious talks with China to determine their actions.  Same with Russia.

Oh and for our allies? 

You can bet that they're gonna assemble at least one airplane, servicemember and ship from as many nations as possible to make this look like a united effort and to give the illusion of legality to the upcoming fight.

My fear?

I think they'll go after Seoul and our bases in Okinawa with conventionally tipped ballistic missiles.  There are some service people that haven't got the memo and brought their families to a war zone and because the services don't want to give away the store they'll be considered a reasonable risk if things go bad because an evacuation would warn the North.

Side note.  Do you think that Trump would actually do the Transgender ban unless the military told him to?  Dude just doesn't care that much about the issue and his New York sensibilities would have him leave it alone.  He acted for the service chiefs.  Same with the recall of pilots.  The SecAF can lie and say that they won't use it but Trump didn't pull that out of his ass.  All this is part of the war prep.  Integrating transexuals in this environment would be too hard during a big war and the pilots thing is obvious.  As far as I'm concerned War has already been declared.

Open Comment Post. Oct 26, 201

AMX-10RC at Bold Alligator 17 landing on Onslow Beach...pics by Cpl. Abraham Lopez

This is still a big exercise and still worth watching even if all the units assigned didn't make it because of disaster relief duties.

I'm personally happy to see the French bringing their AMX-10RC.  It should serve to inform the Marine Corps on whether or not to pursue a Mobile Gun System type solution with the ACV.

The only other comment I have has to do with "interoperability" as the USMC is pursuing it.

I think the incident in Africa is instructive.

I don't believe that SOCOM is the all knowing masters of combat but from my chair it appears that they're not hot and bothered about being able to operate off foreign aircraft (although they will if its necessary) or ships.  They're more concerned with making sure that they have proper comms with foreign forces in their areas of operation and have developed "mutual aid" pacts with them.

Instead of stationing USMC aircraft and personnel on foreign ships (which will lead to tons of issues if they're actually needed in an emergency situation) we should be focusing on better meshing headquarters elements so that we can push quick reaction forces, assist with logistics if necessary and even ensure that casualties are taken to the facility best able to handle their issue.

I'm thinking that in the case of the Africa incident the French aircraft would have been cleared to drop bombs and do demonstrations of force.  French Legionnaires would have been able to act as a QRF for our Special Forces and vice versa.  And of course they would take our wounded to their field hospital instead of us having to rely on host nation medical facilities (and I'm making that assumption)

Interoperability can work.  If it's done right and if its done without the game playing to push an airplane.

Bold Alligator 17 Amphibious Assault...vid by Cpl. Boston Berg and Lance Cpl. Melissa Lettieri

Congratulations 239 Troop on earning your Green Berets.

Wow.  Can't put my finger on it but that was cool.  I can't quite tell and hopefully a Royal Marine will tell me but are those recruits lined up cheering them on?  If it is then I guess it's a subtle bit of motivation to keep them pushing forward when a few might be feeling like giving up.

Anyone know?

Regardless that was pretty fucking awesome.  Vid is via Royal Marines Instagram Page and if you're not linked into them then you're missing out.

Politics Talk. Trump has defeated the Republican political establishment.

via CNN

Republican Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, a frequent critic of President Donald Trump, will not run for re-election, he said Tuesday in a blistering speech on the Senate floor that bemoaned the "coarsening" tenor of politics in the United States.

Flake denounced the "complicity" of his own party in what he called an "alarming and dangerous state of affairs" under Trump, blaming the President for setting the tone. In his speech, Flake assailed a "flagrant disregard for truth or decency" and attacked a "regular and casual undermining of our democratic norms."
"When such behavior emanates from the top of our government, it is something else: It is dangerous to a democracy," Flake said.

Story here. 

You've already heard about this unless you've been hiding under a rock but I want to push forward my own pet theory.

First, the "conventional wisdom" is wrong.  I've heard more than a few reporters openly talk about leadership asking Flake to step aside so that a mainstream Republican could win his seat.

Seems as if Mr. Flake isn't too popular with Republicans in Arizona, so no, this is not a demonstration of courage/self sacrifice.

Dude just saw the writing on the wall and bailed before he was pushed.

This does raise an interesting issue in my mind.

For better or worse, Trump has defeated the political establishment of the Republican party.

The primary season and the election proved this to be true, but everyone (including me) got frozen because Trump allowed the Senate to enact their pet projects while putting his own agenda on the back burner.

I believe that was simply Trump playing nice.

The Republican party as espoused by the elite is dead.  Free trade is being replaced with fair trade.  Open borders is being replaced with tight immigration controls.  International agreements will be nation to nation instead of huge agreements between entire blocs of countries.

The only thing that is keeping this from being a complete rout is the seeming allegiance to Republican elite's military policy.  In particular his allowing the war on terror to expand into Africa and the continued push to label Russia as a potential threat to European countries.

My guess is that this tax bill attempt will be the final "gimmee" to the elite.  If they fail then I expect Trump's advisors to have him pivot over to infrastructure, law and order, and a continuation of shedding rules and regulations via his cabinet secretaries.

We've just witnessed the defeat of the Neo-Con/Elite political power in the Republican party.  The same WILL HAPPEN to the Democrats.  The only reason why it hasn't is because they have more factions under their tent and tend to focus more on social issues rather than issues of govt.

American politics has been changed forever because of Trump.  The only question is what happens to those establishment/elite?  Could they form a new political party?  Will Trump decide to dump the Republicans and run as an independent?

Who knows but it will be real interesting to watch.

X-47B will not be the Navy's new UAV...Northrop pulls out of the competition...

via Defense News.

Northrop Grumman will not put forward a bid for the U.S. Navy’s MQ-25 unmanned tanker aircraft, its CEO announced Wednesday.

While the specific reasoning underpinning the decision was not fully explained, it appears the Navy’s final request for proposals — released earlier this month — raised questions among executives who worried that Northrop would be unable to develop a UAV that met specifications and still delivered profit for the company.

“When we’re looking at one of these opportunities, let me be clear: Our objective is not just to win. Winning is great, it feels good on the day of an announcement, but if you can’t really execute on it and deliver on it to your customer and your shareholders, then you’ve done the wrong thing,” Northrop head Wes Bush said during an Oct. 25 earnings call.

“And we’ve worked hard over a long number of years in our company to have great clarity around what our objectives are,” he said. “When you’re entrusted by the U.S. or any one of our allied nations to do something in the defense arena, that’s a bond of trust that you can’t afford to break, and we really look hard at executability under the terms of RFPs that come out to make sure that we can execute.”

Story here. 

Navy aviation is killing itself.  First it had the weird switch to make the UAV into a tanker instead of keeping deep strike and then it wrote a RFP that was so strict that its obvious that there is no profit to even trying for the contract.

I blame this on two things.  The F-35 mafia won and because they did the US Navy is going to be out of the deep strike mission for another couple of generations.  The X-47B as first envisioned would have filled that role nicely.  Call it the second coming of the A-6 but unmanned and stealthy.

The second issue is the RFP.  I'm glad the Pentagon is getting serious about saving the taxpayer money but they're leaving proven capabilities on the table while grasping for lesser ones that will not pay off in a high end fight.

This is terrible news.

Are we heading back to a time when naval jets are undoubtedly inferior to their land based counterparts?

In WW2 that was certainly the case before the F6F and F4U arrived on the scene.  Land based fighter regained their superiority for awhile during the 50's and 60's, but with the arrival of the F-4 Phantom and F-8 Crusader the gap was again negated.  But now?  I like the Super Hornet but in terms of raw power it will never equal the Mighty F-15 or F-22, not to mention the latest Sukhoi or J-20.

A stealthy UAV that could conduct deep strikes, serve as a missile truck, do ISR, serve as a picket for the fleet and finally do the tanker mission would have been a God send.  The Navy instead seems to be emphasizing the tanker mission.

This is a lost opportunity.  I hope leadership knows what its doing.

It's time to throw out the Counterinsurgency Manual and start fresh with a new one!

The counterinsurgency manual was re-written with great fan fare by Generals Petraeus and Amos.  It supposedly encapsulated the lessons learned from our early efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq and would point the way ahead.

The battlefield has a vote and it has rendered our current concept of operations obsolete.

The problem?  The enemy has evolved.  No longer are we fighting peasants on foot armed with AKs and the occasional RPG.

Additionally we have found that insider attacks (in the form of actually assaulting our servicemen) or providing information to the enemy (as evidenced by the ambush of the Special Forces in Niger) is as great a threat to our forces as actually enemy action.

My solution?

Dump small unit tactics that embed our forces into host nation units.  Mark my words, one day we will see an entire team sold to the enemy for a few pieces of gold or the drug of choice in whatever country we're operating in and they will be subjected to barbarity that will shock the nation for a generation.

Additionally we've got to get real.  We can't scatter our forces all over the globe without proper support.  That means at least a company of infantry (at the least!) to act as a quick reaction force.  It means having our teams operate under the protective cover of artillery and rotary winged close air support.

Finally we've got to make better choices.  Not everyone that smiles at a nation's capital actually speaks for those in the countryside.  We need better human intelligence on the motivations of the various clans/tribes etc.  We need to know where the host nation is strong, where it is weak and where it is committing crimes against its people.

I'm done with the story of the Special Forces Team getting ambushed in Africa. It was horrific and I'm sorry it happened but enough looking in the rear view mirror.

It's time to look ahead and do our best to make sure it doesn't happen again. The first step to doing that is to realign our forces so that we can provide them the support they need if they have a chance encounter with enemy forces.

Pentagon takes over cost savings program from Lockheed...Death spiral obviously on the horizon.

via Defense News.

The U.S. Defense Department’s deep dive into the F-35’s cost is officially underway, as a team of Pentagon officials works their way through the massive supply chain of the joint strike fighter, a top official said Monday.

The Pentagon knows how much it’s paying for the F-35, but the deep dive will help officials understand the true cost of the jet and why, as well as what can be done to whittle down the price tag even further, said Shay Assad, the department’s director of defense pricing.

Over the next several weeks, the assessment team will meet with the three major contractors on the F-35 — prime contractor Lockheed Martin, as well as BAE Systems and Northrop Grumman, which make major portions of the fuselage — and lay out the parameters of the review.

“Lockheed is familiar with this process because we’ve done it before with them, so this isn’t something new,” Assad said. “Many of the things we’re talking about are just practices that have occurred in the past, this will just be much more rigorous. So we’ll lay it out with the companies. And we’ll also lay out for them: Here’s our plan in terms of your subcontractor base, and this is what we want to do, and then get off and get the work done.”

The review will take about a year to complete.

“It’s a very intense effort,” he said.

Story here. 

But wait!  The F-35 is already on course to be less expensive than the Super Hornet according to the fan boys over at F-16.net so why do this?

Because its obvious that the death spiral is on the horizon.  We can probably add to it that Block 4 isn't going to deliver as promised either.  Already we're hearing about weapon systems being moved to Block 5.

Forget all the "so called deployments".  The reality is stark.  The F-35 IS NOT delivering as promised and Lockheed Martin and the Pentagon know it.

My advice?  Watch their stock carefully.  Expect some well placed executives to start selling stocks and retiring early.  The F-35 has turned into a dropped knife...the only question that remains is who will be forced to catch it.