Wednesday, July 13, 2022

What we haven't seen in the Ukraine/Russia war (or things that didn't work)

 Your notes may vary but I've noticed a couple of things, I'm sure you've noticed stuff I've missed and I think we should compare notes.


1.  Air Assaults are pretty much out.  After the raid on the airport that was over.

2.  Close air is gonna be carried out at distance if at all.  SU-25 have been flying as have attack helicopters but they've been lobbying missiles from distance.  I at least haven't seen gun runs. Even higher end aircraft are doing the thing from distance.

3.  Artillery is still king.  The artillery duels have been epic and missiles have been used to strike deep.

4.  Towed artillery is dead meat.  They're just too slow and can be countered rather easily.

5.  We have little visibility but the dreaded cyber attacks haven't been close to what I was expecting.  

6.  I don't know what is going on with the electronic warfare thing but its not as highlighted as I expected.

7.  Surface ships are vulnerable.  They're getting knocked down from distance.  A fight in the littorals?  Bullshit!  Navies will take the fight to blue water.  Up close and you're meat for too many systems.

8.  Drones are king or maybe not.  The Ukrainians are talking about their TB-2s being ineffective and how they don't need Predators.  They're good in passive environments only it would appear.

9.  No raids of any kind by any elite force.

10.  No airborne drops of any kind by any elite force.

11.  Combined arms -- the jury is still out with regard to modern warfare. Neither side has really employed the concept so we don't know if TRUE mechanized warfare could work.

12.  Fighting in cities is a sad joke.  The idea of planners actually wanting to engage in fights in mega cities was a batshit crazy idea.  In the small communities we've seen hellacious fights.  In Mariupol we saw a relatively small group of defenders hold out for a long time.  Once again.  Artillery is king.

Sure I missed some stuff but my back is tweaked to hell, I'm medicated and a little pissed so cut me slack.

Tuesday, July 12, 2022

General Dynamics to supply Trophy APS Active Protection System kits for M1A2 SEPv2 and M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams MBTs

 

A rather neat solution. Wonder if the Army will establish an "Army Liaison" (along the lines of SF using indigenous forces for force multipliers) Force to aid allies (USMC) when their forces are needed. Large scale, armored/mech force knowledge is rapidly fading from Western forces.  Leaders outside the Army are gonna need advice how to properly utilize them when they're attached to forces that lack heavy direct firepower and lack battlefield maneuver.
Story here.

Random acts of crime. Olympian attacked...

 

The world is crazy. Not so concerned about you guys. Most of my audience is military/former military/law enforcement or associated with some type of gun club. If you're not trained up, aware of your surroundings and avoiding going to crazy places then its on you. 

This is about your loved ones. 

We can't always be there to watch over them. They gotta get skills too. Take the time to bring the savage reality of the world to those you care about. You'll be cracking their  innocence. They'll be either resistant (which will crumble after you show them vids of attacks for a couple of weeks) or border line paranoid till they're able to properly moderate themselves but the effort is worth it.

U.S. announces additional $1.7 billion in aid to Ukraine....we're not just funding the war, we're funding Ukraine's entire economy!

A reader made the statement and I noted it but kept moving, that the US wasn't just funding Ukraine's war effort but also their entire economy. He went on to talk about how they have no functioning industry, and have to fund public services, military etc. 

In other words Ukraine is now a failed state being propped up mainly by the US but also a bit by the EU (if the war stopped right now it would be decades of re-building and monitoring by the EU/US). But what happens when the American people start looking at the pain at home? What happens when the MSM can't play the rah-rah Ukraine mode anymore because people are looking at the money being sent overseas (ONCE AGAIN) instead of invested at much needed projects at home? What happens when the new inflation data comes out Weds?

This strategy is unsustainable.

Sadly the Ukrainians don't get it but I think I do.

We're not fighting to support the Ukrainian nation. It's already dead.

This is a fight for resources and location.

Natural resources and a port on the sea.  That's what this about.

If Zelensky was smart he'd step off the hawkish thing asap and try and save what he can of his country.  A few more months and this thing is over except for the powers that be picking over the scraps of his nation.

Quite honestly (and I don't know this...just sense it), he'll be lucky to make it out of this mess alive.  I'm catching the glint of long knives reaching for him.

Task Force 61/2: Enhancing Maritime Awareness

Note. I see NO indication that the US Navy is onboard with the Marine Corps concept. Additionally I can make a case that they're going in an entirely different direction (and so are the Chinese). Just as in WW2 I foresee (assuming there is even a conventional fight...the more I dig into that the less likely I believe it to be) a blue water fight and not one in the littoral zone. Those islands and land masses that the Marine Corps is trying to use will be bypassed and ignored (at best), quickly eradicated with long distance fires if necessary. 

We're putting people where we should be sending drones. The Chinese have bodies to spare and they'll still use drones to find these forces. 

This concept is dead. 

Worse? 

They are taking it Marine Corps wide. 

The entire Marine Corps dedicated to being a recon/counter recon force? 

YOU THINK THE MARINE CORPS WILL BE VIABLE WITH THIS AS ITS REASON FOR BEING? 

Stop smoking crack.


 

ROK Marines are still about that life! Conduct AAV operations at RIMPAC

Interesting isn't it. If an amphibious assault is necessary in the Pacific then it would have to be led by the ROK Marines. They are now the most capable and flexible Marine force in that theater....with the most staying power against a peer opponent.

UK's 16th Air Assault Brigade trains with US Army 101st Air Assault

I'm seeing more and more of this and I'm looking at British Army design which convinces me that they're building themselves in such a way as to seamlessly slot into US Army formations. This teaming (assuming I'm correct) is just another nugget of information proving me correct.

Latest photos of Bell's 360 Invictus prototype for the Army's Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA) competition.

Battalion Landing Team 2/5, 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit conduct live fire on Camp Schwab, Okinawa

Note. Marine Infantry is still doing Marine Infantry shit but the mission is just so ... confusing that it defies understanding. Stand-In-Force? Going Marine Corps wide and not just the Pacific? How does a modern Defense Battalion concept apply worldwide? China is the pacing threat but its a big world! How does the SIF make sense anywhere else but the Pacific? Spare me the talk about "if it works against the Chinese it'll work eveywhere". Even worse. How do you message the Stand-In-Force to the Congress, to potential recruits and to the force? It might (I say that in jest) be the right concept but they MUST get the messaging on it together. Right now its just word salad and a concept that smacks of legacy building instead of warfighting. Everyone wants to be the next Ellis but no one knows how! 

Sidenote. Why are we calling them BLTs when they won't do BLT shit in the future?

China PLA amphibious infantry fighting vehicles and an air cushion landing craft march on the sea during an exercise