Ukraine War Talk. Why the talk of an offensive?

 Everyone on this blog knows that the major talk is of an upcoming offensive.

My question is why.

From my chair it doesn't make sense.

The losses to the Ukrainian side while not being documented as feverishly as the Russians are still heavy.  Real heavy.  Additionally while the training of Ukrainian forces is zooming along, they're still suffering manpower issues AND experience issues in their operating forces.

A spring offensive seems risky.

Better to wait till late summer, or early fall.  Press hard, win ground (if possible...the Russians get a vote too) and then hold on.

If the assault fails you consolidate your positions and let General Winter do his thing.

Between now and then you build up your forces as much as possible to ensure success.

But they're not doing that.  They're pressing ahead.  Like I said, from my seat its too early.  If they win ground they'll be pushed back and it won't be decisive.

173rd Brigade Support Battalion, 173rd Airborne Brigade, @ Juliet DZ Pordenone, Italy

 

Chinese future armored fighting vehicles are gonna be different...

Norinco Next Gen MBT

A Slide of Presentation Disclosed Recently from an Open Speech. The Lecturer Discussed bt One of the Proposals for PLA Future MBT - Articulated ONE with UGV/UAV-assisted. The Head Can Carries Infantries & The Tail Also Carry Loitering Munitions/Missiles pic.twitter.com/1oWq1fuYxJ

— David Wang (@Nickatgreat1220) March 19, 2023

Wow.

This has always been a private concern.  If you compare China where its at now with America, then you can say from an engineering/innovation stage they're in their 50's and early 60's.

Think about it.

Think about the designs we saw from our major defense corporations during that time period.

Think about how even now we're circling back and doing some of the things they tried to do but the tech wasn't quite there.

In some ways we've been fortunate that they've been following our lead and putting a few spins on it.

If we build it then we know how to kill it...or modifications of it.

But what happens when we see brand new stuff and haven't got a clue?

Open Comment Post. 19 Mar 23

 

The Grisly Aftermath Of An Anti-Tank Missile on a YPR-765

 

NSFW. Destroyed Dutch owned, Ukrainian operated YPR-765 near Novonikolaevka (held by the Russian 70th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment), Zaporozhiye Front. 15 March 2023
by u/sasha_man123 in DestroyedTanks

Geez.

Just let me walk to the fight.  This thing was a quick ride to doom (for the folks inside).

I didn't think the Biden Admin or the Pentagon would do this but they're just prolonging this conflict.

Now do you understand why I'm all about turning this thing off? Don't you get it yet?  They feed the "fight for freedom" to the masses while behind closed doors this is all about economics (or so I think).

Late Open Comment Post. 18 Mar 23

 

They want Marines on Fuga Island but that's still a problem...

“We want the marines and the coast guard here to protect the island. If it’s just us village officials, we cannot cover the entire area,” says Melchor Visario, the village chief on Fuga. https://t.co/ByVRApQETo

— Aaron-Matthew IL (@Aaron_MatthewIL) March 18, 2023

Marines on an island 22 square miles large? Stealth will help keep them from being targeted? A ruthless Chinese Commander will simply expend enough munitions to micrfragment every single square mile of the place. I don't believe theyr'e worried about the Chinese. I think they want American dollars flowing...

Anyone have any info on this freakishly large explosion somewhere in Ukraine?

 

Welp, Ukraine looks pretty interesting right about now. https://t.co/FjvH88WqIK

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) March 17, 2023

That almost looks nuclear. What type munition gives off a cloud like that? What gets hit and puts off a cloud like that?

Turkey's TF-X looks fantastic!

 Thanks to FenerliMusti82 for the pics!

The Pentagon needs to inform the public about peer vs peer "games"...what happened with the UAV was nothing compared to what has come before or what we'll soon see

 

Unprofessional, unwarranted, & dangerous. These antics don't always end without loss of life. Take the 1968 Essex incident for example.pic.twitter.com/bQ5mUMOSW5 https://t.co/2k3YtkjxNP

— 🇺🇸𝗢𝗹𝗱 𝗦𝘂𝗯𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿⚓️ (@USN_Submariner) March 16, 2023

Yeah.

Peer vs Peer "games" have been going on a long time and while the public appears to be alarmed (surprisingly quite a few congress critters too), whats happened in the past makes the recent incident look like kiddie play.

That's what we can see from the past too.

Talk to the old sub guys and you would hear about some pretty crazy stuff they were involved in (supposedly even recently they've been in some crazy stuff but that's just rumor).

My point is that if you're talking super power games, and we are, then the public better wrap its brain around the concept that things will get hairy.

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

All it takes is one Regiment/Brigade Commander on either side of a line on a map to dig his claws in and react/over react to a situation and suddenly you have both sides rushing forces to an area.

Same applies in the air and sea.

Fighters patrolling and suddenly it turns into an air battle because intentions are misunderstood.

You have bumper cars at sea and that monster Chinese Coast Guard Cutter bumps one of our ships and accidently sinks it and you have the potential for weapons free in the Pacific before leadership can lower the volume (wouldn't that be a kick in the pants to see that ship bump a Landing Ship Medium).

My point.

The UAV incident wasn't shit.