BlackFive launches a full frontal assault on Sweetman/ARES!

Told ya this was gonna get good!  BlackFive launches a full frontal assault on Sweetman/Ares and it appears that no prisoners will be taken....read it and weep critics!

Posted By Blackfive • [May 14, 2011] 

RE:  So How Much Does an F35 Actually Cost?

One thing a blogger enjoys about as much anything is when someone else unwittingly ends up making the point he blogged about.  Such is the case with the F-35 cost post I put up this week.  And who made the case for me?  Bill Sweetman – a blogger for the ARES blog at Aviation Week.
Sweetman is a critic of the F-35 program.  And, it is clear who he is writing about when he opens with this, in a post entitled “F-35 cost: A Bit of Reality”, a day after the F-35 post appeared here.

There is an unusual amount of utter bilge being talked about Joint Strike Fighter costs …

Hmmm, wonder who he’s talking about?  A couple of paragraphs later, it becomes clear:

(Blogger BlackFive, for some reason, thinks that APUC includes lifetime O&S costs, and goes off to draw some predictably inaccurate conclusions.)

I do?  I challenge Mr. Sweetman to back up that claim.  Nowhere in the post do I even mention O&S costs.  In fact the only place you’ll find O&S is on the chart included in the post to clarify what Mr. Sweetman would seeminly prefer remained murky. 
One can only conclude that Mr. Sweetman doesn’t know how to read the chart, but O&S is clearly listed under “Life Cycle Costs” there.
Sweetman then proceeds to do exactly what I talked about in the post.  He throws all sorts of numbers around with no context.  For instance:

The average procurement unit cost for the USAF F-35A, over the planned 1,763-aircraft run, is about $125 million (page 29).

What does the “average procurement unit cost” include? He doesn’t bother to tell you.  Without the chart, or unless you’re intimately familiar with the procurement process and what it entails, you won’t the foggiest idea, will you.  But he’s now established a cost which has no comparative relevance in the discussion of 4^th and 5^th generation fighters.
By that I mean the critics will use that cost to trot out the old “we could buy two 4^th generation aircraft for that price” argument.   Of course they’re using the unit recurring flyaway cost (URC) for the 4^th gen fighter (they have no idea what the APUC is for those aircraft and if they do, they don’t use it) and a completely different cost for the F-35 (in this case APUC).
Something like, “Well Bill Sweetman at ARES says the F-35 costs $125 million (APUC) a copy and a F/A 18 only costs $55 million (URF) so we could buy two of them for every one F-35”.  Apples and pomegranates. 
And of course, that was the entire point of my post.
My thanks to Mr. Sweetman and the ARES blog for helping me make the point about as well as it could be made.  I'm no accountant and was just trying to be extremely clear about costs.
Much appreciated.

So how does this all shake out?  See the video below...

F-35A AF-9 First Flight

The fourth production model of the F-35 Lightning II, F-35A AF-9, completed its inaugural flight on 13 May 2011 from NAS Fort Worth JRB with Lockheed Martin test pilot Bill Gigliotti at the controls.

F-35 Range and the reporting on it.

The DewLine broke the story (at least as far as I can tell)...

Everyone else is jumping on it as another fail for the F-35...

But what's the truth?  The below chart is from the DL...

The facts as I see them...

1.  The F-35B...supposedly the weakest of the bunch is meeting KPP requirements already.  That fact is getting lost in this story.  The "B" will be a winner.  Expect it to sell extremely well, especially with so many Navies acquiring LHD type ships.
2.  The F-35A misses its KPP by only 6 miles.  This will be an extremely easy fix.  That's getting lost in this story.
3.  The F-35C is (like the "B") meeting requirements.

In short, although I'm a fan of Trimble (like I am of Bill---I just think he's waaaaaay off the reservation when it comes to the F-35 program) but he made a non-story into a story.

One thing is for sure.  News of the F-35 drives web traffic.  Even here.

UPDATE:

Something about Trimble's post sparked a memory of this debate before...especially the fact that the F-35B is performing so well range wise.  Then it hit me...This post by Sweetman!  The US and its allies will be gaining Stealth, Speed, Superior Avionics and Extended Range with the F-35.  The parties that choose to replace AV-8B Harriers with F-35B's will see Amphibious Ships finally able to perform not only legacy missions but everything from Fleet Defense to Sea Control Missions.  The F-35 in general and the F-35B in particular are poised to be game changers.

Kel-Tec can officially kiss my a%$!

Follow the link and read this news...via Guns for sale.com

Kel-Tec announced the temporary suspension of PMR-30 production due to potential keyholing problems with the current barrels.  The PMR-30 has been shipping with 1:16 twist barrels, which appear to not stabilize all .22 WMR bullets.Kel-Tec is experimenting with 1:12 and 1:9 twist barrels to see what twist ratio works the best.  Kel-Tec said that they are suspending the production of all PMR-30 pistols until they find the correct ratio to use.  They expect to resume production in two weeks.

After waiting almost a year for them to finally get production under control and product into local gun shops, Kel-Tec pulls this monkey out of their arse?

Please.

Say it out loud Kel-Tec and see if it makes sense to your customers.  Explain to your customers why they shouldn't be beyond pissed.

Sorry, but I'm done.  Its either a Ruger, Walther...heck name it...anything except a Kel-Tec.  Consider me officially pissed off.

The definition of "THIS SUCKS"

If you want to experience misery, pain and general "suck-atude" then run this course!

A U.S. Marine helps a fellow Marine through a muddy obstacle at the endurance course at the Jungle Warfare Training Center on Camp Gonsalves, Okinawa, Japan, April 29, 2011. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Patricia D. Lockhart

Against superior numbers, Marines prevail

Editor's Note:  Too little is being written about the bravery shown by ALL members of our armed forces in the current fight...whether Marines, Soldiers, Sailors or Airmen...where ever I see news of their gallantry, then it'll be posted here.  This is the first of many...

Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus presents the Navy Cross to Gunnery Sgt. Brian M. Blonder during a ceremony at the Marine Corps War Memorial in Arlington, Va., May 10, 2011. Blonder received the second highest award given for valor in the face of danger for his actions during an all-day firefight against Taliban insurgents Aug. 8, 2008, during the battle of Shewan, Afghanistan. Although he and the Marines and sailors he was fighting alongside with were outnumbered eight to one against insurgents, they managed to kill more than 50 insurgents and drove the rest out of their fortified fighting positions in the Taliban infested village in southern Farah province. Blonder, a reconnaissance Marine by trade, was serving as platoon sergeant with a force reconnaissance platoon attached to 2nd Battalion, 7th Marine Regiment. Photo by Sgt. Michael S. Cifuentes

BlackFive channeled the opposition ....

UPDATE:  BlackFive has a fascinating conversation going on about the F-35 cost debate.  Most notably McQ (a BlackFive contributor) posted this in the comments....

ARES also blew the call on B5's article. They claim B5 put O&S under PAUC. In fact the chart shows O&S under Life Cycle Costs - exactly where it belongs.

Be nice if they'd learn to read a chart before they go making unsubstantiated claims. Make's 'em look pretty foolish.

 Note that this was posted in my comments section and I chose to give it added prominence.  This is getting good.  Want to read even more interesting stuff?  Go here to follow the conversation at BlackFive!

Yes.

You read that right.

BlackFive channeled the opposition into an area of his choosing and with the natural aggressiveness of a team of highly skilled Infantrymen, initiated contact.

The oppositions response was...as expected...lacking.

Required reading for this weekend is this post of BlackFive's answer to questions regarding the F-35's cost....and then this post on ARES seeking to debunk it.

Quite simply....ARES post ran into an L-Shaped Ambush and is no longer combat effective.

BLACKFIVE strikes back on F-35 costs!

Thanks Bruce for sending me this article!  


UPDATE:  Check out the comment from the Speech Writer/Deputy Communications Director from the US House Armed Services Committee.  BlackFive has the ears of policy makers on Capital Hill.  I'm beyond impressed.

Gentlemen, I present to you the real truth on F-35 costs.  Not the fantasy land dribble spouted by some, but the stone cold truth...and its from none other than one of the big boys on the internet when it comes to defense issue--- Black Five!  I shamelessly post the article in its entirety here.  Read it and weep F-35 critics.

If you've been paying attention to the battle for US air dominance, you might be, like me, a little wary of the comparisons and the rhetoric.  Since there are numbers flying all over the place with regards to cost (mostly from PR firms), I thought we ought to take a look at what the REAL cost of an F-35 is...and we'll look at it in the same terms that the DoD/USAF use to evaluate the bids.
First, we need to talk in terms of 2010 dollars.  We’re talking about what is known as the Unit Recurring Fly Away cost (URF) for a conventional take-off and landing (CTOL) variant (the type the Air Force is buying).  In 2010 terms, it will cost about $65 million dollars.
 
Whoa, wait a minute, you say, I’ve seen costs as high as $110 million a copy!

I’m sure you have.  But they don’t reflect the URF.  Instead they may reflect the Total Ownership Cost (TOC) - the cost of everything necessary to operate the aircraft over the span of its service life - or any of a number of other costs used in the project for various purposes, but it won’t reflect the one we should be most concerned with, the URF.
 
Confused yet?
 
Think of buying a new car.  You go in, look at the sticker price and ask the sales person, “how much will it cost me to drive this car off the lot?”   He or she is going to give you a cost at or near the sticker price.  You’re going to negotiate it down and, if you strike a deal, you’ll drive it off the lot for that negotiated price.  That’s the URF in a nutshell.

With me so far?
 
But does that cost reflect the TOC?
Of course not.
Gas and oil.  Extra cost.  Maintenance.  Extra cost.  Extended warranty.  Extra cost.  Parts.  Extra cost. Labor.  Extra cost.   New tires.  Extra cost. Etc. In fact, if you take all of those costs associated with owning, driving and maintaining the car over the years you own it you’ll find that TOC to be significantly higher than the cost to drive it off the lot (URF).

Of course that’s the case for any fighter aircraft.  However, in the media, the price you see applied to the F-35 may reflect the higher TOC and not the URF.  When such a cost basis is used without identifying it, you end up comparing apples and pomegranates.  The TOC is not what it will cost to fly the plane off the lot.

As an example, imagine the original cost of the B-52.  Now imagine – with the aircraft having been in constant service for 50 years or more – the total cost of ownership.   The difference is going be huge.  We could easily see a difference of several hundred million dollars per aircraft between URF and TOC as fuel, maintenance, upgrades, modifications, parts, labor, crew costs, and basing costs are all added to the aircraft’s original price, correct?  Imagine seeing the TOC for a B-52 represented as the URF.  You’d say “no way, we can’t afford it”.
 
So, given that understanding, what will it cost us to fly the aircraft off the dealer’s lot (URF)?  Again, in 2010 dollars, assuming all the aircraft originally contracted for are bought (2,443) and production can begin in a timely manner, a CTOL variant F-35 is going to cost $65 million to fly away.  The Marine variant, the STOVL (Short Take Off Vertical Landing) will be in the $75 million range and the CV version (more robust frame/undercarriage built for carrier operations) for the Navy in the $70ish million range. 
I briefly talked about other versions of cost associated with this or any other defense project.  They are only meaningful within the government/defense procurement community and are used in reporting and monitoring each program within that community.  They have no real relevance to the URF but are sometimes quoted in the media as reflecting that price.  They provide another example of the wildly divergent costs we see.

As an example, one cost used is APUC or Average Process Unit Cost.  Essentially they take the URF and add some other costs to it (see chart) to arrive at that cost.  There’s another called PAUC or Program Acquisition Unit Cost.  Again, in the case of PAUC, URF has some selected costs added to it to arrive atthe particular cost. They’re not costs we should be concerned with as they deal more with program costs over the life of the aircraft (as well as some R &D costs) than the eventual cost per plane to fly away. If you see a cost of $93 million per copy floating around out there, for instance, it is likely the PAUC cost as reflected in the chart. Again, that’s not the cost per plane to fly it away (URF).

Finally, just because it is interesting, let’s talk about something else associated with cost and also not properly compared.

So, I think we can agree that we can fly an Air Force F-35 CTOL away for about $65 million (2010 dollars). But I can fly a 4th generation fighter away for, say, $50 million – why not build a whole bunch of those for less money?

Two reasons – they’re significantly inferior in technology and not very stealthy at all. And that $50 million really doesn’t reflect the true cost – not if you want to do anything with the aircraft other than just fly it around. The F-35 as delivered is mission capable. That means it comes with everything already on board to fly missions in combat. It’s combat ready. The 4th generation fighter? Extra cost is required to make it combat ready. You get a basic 4th generation fighter for the quoted price and then have to buy, at extra cost, what is necessary to configure it for combat. Once you pay to configure a 4th gen fighter to be mission capable, i.e., buy what it needs to do its mission in combat, its cost is pretty close to the same as a CTOL F-35 and it is still an inferior aircraft.

Bottom Line: The actual cost to get a new Air Force F-35 into service is about $65 million (2010 dollars). Claims of higher costs for an Air Force F-35 are usually misleading attempts to include years of operating and maintenance costs (costs applicable to all aircraft across the board regardless of generation) in the purchase price.

Just thought that you should be aware of that.
Let's hear what you think about this in the Comments.
Update 1:  Just heard from the House Armed Services Committee on this post:

Just to piggyback, the Committee is expected to pass an Amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act today that authorizes GE-Rolls Royce to self fund  their F35 engine. Since the F35 contract will last 3 decades, the Pentagon originally planned for an annual competition for sustainment and procurement costs. The short term cost of developing the GE engine was deemed too high by the Defense Department, and they canceled the program, ignoring the hazards in handing a $1 billion engine contract to a monopoly. With the Pratt & Whitney engine is already $3.5 billion over budget and wrought with thrust and nozzle problems, the General Electric proposal to pay out of pocket couldn’t have come at a better time.
So in the spirit of your post, today Congress is in a unique position to significantly mitigate the costs of the F-35 program, with no further financial obligation from the Pentagon. We get taxpayer free competition for JSF engine contracts, avoid the pitfalls of a $100 billion Pratt & Whitney monopoly that’s already taking Congress to the bank, keep thousands of employees working, and finally will start to reap the rewards of industry-led acquisition reform. In short, the precise type of reform that the Pentagon and Congress have been pleading with the defense industry to institute for years.
John Noonan
Speechwriter & Deputy Communications Director
U.S. House Armed Services Committee

Update 2:  Got a question about how much the ball park cost for upgrading a 4th gen fighter to combat mission capable?
$10-15,000,000 which makes it about the same cost as the F35.  But you don't get the next gen technology, weapons, capabilities, etc. for that price.

Wow.

Just f*cking wow.

We've all been deceived.  And those that were spouting the various falsehoods know better.

Amazing.

RG-35 4x4 Data Sheet.

Ares broke the story, Defense Tech has the video...I have the data sheet.


baes_pdf_ds_rg35_4x4

What real training looks like.

Marines and Sailors of 3rd Battalion, 3rd Marine Regiment, conduct counter-improvised explosive device training May 6 at Marine Corps Base Hawaii's Boondocker Training Area. During the portion of the exercise shown, they used IED simulators, which produce a puff of smoke and an audible bang. Navy corpsmen and Marines to reacted to the simulated blast and treated mock casualties. The IED simulators were not heard outside the training area. America's Battalion, as 3/3 is also known, is scheduled to deploy later this year to Afghanistan. Provided by Marine Corps Base Hawaii - Kaneohe Bay. 

Yes.  Thats what real training looks like.  Not glamorous---nothing romantic...but vital nevertheless.

NG Firebird...the video.

A quick note to the Media Dept of Northrop Grumman. GUESS WHAT GUYS! No one gives a damn about the 'artistic' quality of your video. All we want are great views of the airplane...all this video jumping and other nonsense...save that for the music vids.

Looks great.

The F-35 Lightning II jet known as AF-7 arrives at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., on Friday to begin its flight testing program. Flown by Maj. Scott “Shark” McLaren, U.S. Air Force Pilot with the 461st FLTS at Edwards AFB.

Helmand Night Life. Photos by Cpl. M. Mancha

COMBAT OUTPOST OUELLETTE, Helmand province, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan – A Marine with 1st Tank Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, sleeps next to his tank after a hard day’s work. The night breeze keeps the Marines cool when they sleep outside under the moonlit sky.

COMBAT OUTPOST OUELLETTE, Helmand province, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan – A tank rolls into position at the outpost late at night after a recent overwatch mission. The tanks with 1st Tank Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, weigh about 70 tons and can hold more than 500 gallons of fuel. Their AGT-1500 turbine engines push out up to 1,500 horsepower.

COMBAT OUTPOST OUELLETTE, Helmand province, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan – A Marine with 1st Tank Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, takes in the scenery atop a tank. COP Ouellette sits on a hill that allows the Marines on guard duty to have a better view of the area.

COMBAT OUTPOST OUELLETTE, Helmand province, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan – A Marine plays a game on his portable media player as the moon rises over the horizon behind the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle. The Marines and sailors say it’s a treat to sleep outside because they get to see a sky that’s untainted by artificial light. They stay pretty busy during the day, so at night, when all becomes calm, the Marines try to unwind by playing video games or cards and sleeping after a hard day’s work.

COMBAT OUTPOST OUELLETTE, Helmand province, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan – Marines unwind and play a friendly game of cards while listening to music after a hard day’s work. This scene is a common nightly ritual the Marines do to help them escape the stress of a deployed environment.

Was the modified Black Hawk a modern version of the Credible Sport?

Question.  Is the modified Black Hawk that 'controlled crashed' into Bin Laden's compound just a modern day version of the C-130 Credible Sport?  By that I mean are we seeing a one off 'Black Project' that was used to ensure the element of surprise?

Rationale.
1.  The trade offs in performance expressed by various aviation experts would seem to make this a not very worthy (even) limited production airframe.
2.  Failure of JSOC to authorize an airstrike on the remnants of the airframe after it was discovered that a large portion remained.
3.  The presence of other airplanes that did not have the same treatment.

Speculation.
1.  I've heard many "Former" Special Ops people state that the SEALs leaving on one helicopter was part of the plan.
2.  The 160th has the best helicopter pilots in the US, if not the world flying for them.  Surely they would have been aware of the issues surrounding performance with landing within the walls of the compound.
3.  They rehearsed this mission several times before (probably in Colorado to simulate the altitude) and would be well aware of the performance issues.

It is my contention that this is simply a hastily designed, special mission helicopter for this one job.  Aviation experts might be chasing ghosts.

UPDATE:

Commenter "me" reminded me that the purposeful crash landing of a helicopter into a compound of a high value target has been done before...Operation Ivory Coast.  Better known as the Son Tay Raid.

Quote of the day. May 7, 2011.

Lightning Commitment
"[The F-35] is our highest priority program. Air superiority is something we absolutely have to have, operationally, forever. And so, we're going to get that program delivered."
—Frank Kendall, principal deputy undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology, and logistics, meeting with defense reporters in Washington D.C., April 20, 2011.

Col. Morgan-real American hero... / Bell Helicopter...get a freaking clue.

Big Time Apologies to Col Morgan.

Big Time Hat Tip to SMSGT MAC for getting me the article and his citation.

Bell Helicopter get a freaking clue.

I ran an earlier post here, where I questioned what Col Morgan was doing at the Bell Helicopter plant in the context of the US Army about to run a competition for their next generation scout helicopter and whether his appearing in the video amounted to product endorsement.

Bell Helicopter deceived me.  Either intentionally or unintentionally.  The results were the same.

They used a real life American hero for an advertisement when he was there to simply thank them for their product that he used to save lives.

Excerpts from the narrative that accompanied Lt. Col. Mike Morgan’s Silver Star:
“His heroic actions and those of the aircrews he led were singularly responsible for saving American lives that were on the brink of being overrun by a determined enemy insurgents of numerically superior force.”

“LTC Morgan’s quick reaction, skillful employment of his and other attack weapon systems, and mastery coordinating multiple aircraft over a target simultaneously resulted in a confirmed three insurgents confirmed killed and an estimated 20-30 unconfirmed.”

“LTC Morgan, with his aircraft munitions expended, determined that American lives were at risk. He quickly decided to make two additional direct passes with his team, enabling his copilots to use their M4 rifles to suppress insurgents attempting to maneuver and over-take the pinned down route clearance team lead vehicle. His actions provided critical time and space to enable the vehicle to maneuver out of the kill zone and back to the north.”

Pure dee crazy.

I was reading the blog Bayou Renaissance Man (highly recommended...its a mix of just about every interesting news story you could think of)when I stumbled across this story that he posted on May 3 of this year.  I repost it in its entirety without shame.

Doofus Of The Day #472

Courtesy of an e-mail from Australian reader Andrew S., we learn of the shooting of an alleged armed robber - and an incredible statement from his girlfriend.

Mr Douglas was shot in a St Kilda street by officers investigating a stabbing earlier that night at the nearby Gatwick Hotel and police have since confirmed they are probing his connection to two armed robberies at Geelong post offices last month.

The Geelong Advertiser reported the 31-year-old was also arrested in February at the scene of a stabbing at the North Geelong commission housing complex where he had lived since last year.

Miss Tuck, who was taken into custody after Sunday's shooting and later released pending further inquiries, claimed her partner had no involvement in the hotel stabbing and had done nothing to warrant the officers' use of lethal force.

"I'm devastated. I loved him he's my heart," she said.

"How dare those evil police shoot an innocent man who just happened to be advancing towards them with a knife out? It's every ones right to stab people, how dare they take that away from us?"

"It shouldn't be like this. He should be here with me today."

There's more at the link. Bold print is my emphasis.

I could hardly believe what I was reading. Is it even possible that someone could say something so stupid? I don't know what to say about the lady (?) in question . . . except that she instantly qualifies for our latest Doofus Of The Day award!





Peter

(EDITED TO ADD: I note, on returning to the linked news report several hours after I first read it, that the statement in bold print has been removed: but if you read the comments at the foot of the article, you'll see that other readers also quoted it. It was there, all right. A more detailed report of the shooting may be found here.)

Wow.

Just wow.

Oh and WTF!

More F-35 News Sweetman won't like;)

The third production model of the F-35 Lightning II, F-35A AF-8, completed its inaugural flight on 6 May 2011 from NAS Fort Worth JRB with Lockheed Martin test pilot Bill Gigliotti at the controls.

F-35 passes 1st radar cross section test.

via Bloomberg.

The program office has collected radar cross-section information on the Air Force version of the aircraft and “we are very pleased, very pleased,” U.S. Navy Vice Admiral David Venlet, the program manager, said in an interview.

F-35- win
Haters- another loss

AAV's from the USS Iwo Jima on exercise. Photos by Petty Officer 3rd Class Z. Ecklund

An amphibious assault vehicle from 2nd Assault Amphibious Battalion approaches the well deck of the multi-purpose amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima . AAVs are entering and deploying from the ship's well deck as part of a joint training exercise.

An amphibious assault vehicle from 2nd Assault Amphibious Battalion departs the well deck of the multi-purpose amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima bound for Camp Lejeune, N.C. The AAVs are deploying from the ship's well deck as part of a joint training exercise.

A landing craft air cushion departs the well deck of the multi-purpose amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima before crossing Onslow Bay to its final destination of Camp Lejeune, N.C. Iwo Jima is en route to Norfolk, Va., after participating in Fleet Week Port Everglades 2011.

An amphibious assault vehicle from 2nd Assault Amphibious Battalion departs the well deck of the multi-purpose amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima. AAVs are entering and deploying from the ship's well deck as part of a joint training exercise.