When does a program become unaffordable?

EFV

FCS

Crusader Howitzer

Comanche Attack Helo

BAE SuperAV

So when does a program become unaffordable?

No one seems to have an answer, but consider this.  If we applied the same metrics of the F-35 to the above programs then all of them would be in service today.

If the F-35 isn't affordable then why does it continue?

Quite simply because the critics are right.

The program is too big to fail.

The A-12. It would have been glorious...

The A-12 would have been a glorious attack plane and it could well have served as a baseline configuration for the next Navy interceptor.

It could have, but it was canceled because of cost.

Interesting because I'm sure (going by instinct because I don't have the numbers) it would still have been cheaper than the F-35C.  So we have another program that faced tougher scrutiny than the F-35.  If Comanche, Crusader, FCS and EFV were all canceled for cost, how do you explain those programs being killed and yet the F-35 survives?

I can't.

Cherry Point Marine Corps Martial Arts Instructor Course Pics.

Battle of Hill 881.

via Wikipedia.

The first contact made with the NVA occurred on Hill 861 when five US Marine forward observers were ambushed in the bamboo, four of whom were killed by gunfire.
After this contact, two companies of Marines advanced on Hill 861, encountering heavy fire from entrenched NVA positions. Constant mortar barrages on potential landing zones prevented evacuation of wounded and fog cut off most air support. Separated, burdened with wounded and dead (it is US Marine Corps tradition never to leave their dead behind), both companies set up hedgehog positions until relieved by other Marine companies.
Even after skinning the hill with napalm, white phosphorus, 500-pound bombs and Huey (helicopter) runs, NVA snipers and machine guns would cut down advancing Marines. Entrenched NVA troops would wait until the Marines were 20-30 yards from their positions, firing on them, bombarding them with 82mm mortars hidden on the reverse sides of ridges and then pursuing them through the burnt trees.
After a constant day and night bombardment, Marine forces managed to take Hill 861, the closest hill mass to Khe Sanh. Dug into the hill they found 400 foxholes and 25 bunkers. The bunkers were often fortified with up to 6 ft of earth and logs, making them all but impervious to the 250- and 500-pound bombs of Marine aircraft.
Having taken Hill 861, the Marine forces advanced against Hill 881 South covered, as they found later, with 10 times as many foxholes and bunkers than 861. Despite the discovery of the well entrenched bunkers on Hill 861; Marine aircraft used 500-pound bombs in the bombardment of Hill 881 South for fear of hitting themselves with shrapnel when they flew low over their targets to avoid monsoon cloud.
With Hill 881 South insufficiently bombarded, Marine infantry found the going even harder than the previous hill, often taking fire from bunkers they had passed, effectively being surrounded on hills and ridges that their own artillery and airplanes had cleared of cover.
After the Marines had suffered heavy losses on Hill 881 South, a new commander ordered the Marine aircraft to break with tradition and use 750-, 1000- and 2000-pound bombs on the heavily-entrenched NVA forces.
With the hills properly bombarded, American forces managed to take Hill 881 North and South in the same day. After beating off a fierce NVA counterattack on Hill 881 North, the Marines could finally claim victory in what had become the bloodiest battle of the Vietnam War so far.

This is one of the most illustrative Battle of the Vietnam war.

*  It highlights the vulnerability of small units.
*  It shows that even overwhelming firepower is no guarantee of victory.
*  It shows the power of the enemy in defense (something never to be underestimated).
*  It illustrates the vulnerability of US forces when faced with effective enemy artillery fire.

But what it mainly shows us is this.

Airpower is NOT enough.

Quick question.

If the B-52s, F-4s, A-4, F-8s, A-7s, Hueys, CH-53s, CH-46s, CH-47s and all the rest of the assembled US firepower was not able to make the enemy turn tail and run, do you think that the V-22 and F-35 will?

Haynie is back at it. This time talking pullups.

Haynie wrote an article at USNI and instead of her usual pile of feminist talking points she actually comes down on the side of females meeting the same standards as males.

But something happened.

She got only one comment on the post and that was from a fellow USNI writer.

Everyone else is just staying away.  Why?  Because its obvious.  The feminist have won and a negative comment is career suicide.  So the masses are simply waiting and watching.

But I doubt they're approving.  Read the article here.

Think via Everyday Carry Systems.

Another sweeeeet 300 Blackout build from my buddy Kuech!!!!

Damn!  Kuech keeps pumping these sweet builds out and I don't have my first.  Jealous much?  Yes.  Yes I am!  More pics dude...more pics!  A Vltor upper on  a Noveske lower?  They look they were made for each other.  That's a nice tight looking fit.  The only thing I would change is the muzzle brake.  I want that flash suppressed as much as possible.  Other than that minor detail (which is more to philosophy than anything else) its pure perfection.  I like it!  Correction::he's got threads for a suppressor on that bad boy...flash is taken care of!

Advanced Super Hornet

Dang.  I still hate Boeing but that plane looks good!

The gear renaissance may be over.

Hey gents.  Consider this a heads up.  I was trying to catch up with a weeks worth of emails and got one of the usual sunday flyer ad type that I get from all the gear stores.

I was about to chuck it but opened it instead and it was a note from USCAV saying that despite recently going into bankruptcy they weren't going out of business and any rumors to the contrary were lies.

This made me sit up and notice.  I could care less about them filing for chapter 11.  But this could spell trouble for the industry that has grown since the start of the Iraq/Afghanistan wars.

I can't name the number of gear stores, nylon gear makers and others that I've seen arrive since the beginning of the "troubles"...USCAV has been shaky for a while but I wonder how many others are wobbling?

This could be a problem for gun guys in a couple of ways.

1.  You could see the custom guys go down fast.  Alterations to your favorite pack?  You better hope you know a seamstress with heavy duty gear thats local...or you better learn to do it yourself.

2.  Innovation will suffer.  I like to make fun of the Blue Force Costa sling bag.  Some call it the Ninja Turtle Bag.  However you view it though, it was a development.  Someone took the chance to test a concept on the market.  Compare it to the Tactical Tailor concealed carry bag.  Two concepts, one proved popular, the other not so much.  Less nylon guys, less competition, less innovation.

3.  The same issues with gear will probably apply to firearms.  Europe and Asia copy what's done in the US.  Less customers, fewer businesses, less competition all equals less innovation.

We have been through a firearms/gear renaissance.  This might be the warning bell that the good gear times are over.

Republic of Korea Forces at Work by KishKim

See more of the Professor's work here.

Textron LCU(R)

Thanks for the pdf Lee.

  Textron LCU(R) Hispd

I have a feeling that this concept and the more aggressive (and challenging 21st Century Landing Craft from an earlier post) are both going to take a a backseat to the LCAC SLEP and then the Ship to Shore Connector (LCAC on steroids).

This Sheepdog concept is going to end up biting the gun community in the ass.

I've always thought that the gun community is nuts for supporting Zimmerman.  The guy was playing neighborhood watch/keystone cop and because he ignored dispatcher suggestions to stop following Martin, the guy ended up getting into a fight.

A fight that could have been avoided if he had simply stayed in the car.

And that's the rub of it.  One action was critical to the entire episode.  If he had stayed in the car then the shooting would not have taken place.  For cops its the Fruit of the Poison Tree issue.  A cop pulls you over illegally and then finds a cache of weapons (a real cache...like 200 Glock 19's and 100 AR-15s) along with 50 pounds of weed, it all gets thrown out (you probably won't get back the drugs...maybe the guns) because the first action, the traffic stop, led to the rest of the events.

But I digress.  Check this out...via the Orlando Sentinel.

A resident watching fireworks explode late Thursday over The Hamptons at MetroWest on Turkey Lake said she feared for her life when a man carrying what looked like a machine gun ordered her to leave, according to Orlando police.
The heavily armed man turned out to be Swapna Mandavia's neighbor with the title of "chairman of the fine and hearing violations" committee for the west Orlando complex's homeowners association.
"The suspect, later identified as Howard Fox, approached her and told her to leave because it was after hours," according to an arrest report released Friday. "Mandavia began to leave the pier when Fox raised the gun and pointed it at Mandavia and said she was doing something illegal."
Another resident with two children then complained about a stranger openly carrying firearms. That's when Mandavia, 36, noticed that Fox, 47, was pointing the gun at her again, and she called 911 for help, the report stated.
The first officers to reach the 776-unit complex found Fox at home, where he said property managers gave him permission to enforce HOA rules. He also said he walked the grounds at night to hunt small animals with a 9mm pistol on his belt and a .40-caliber Glock short-barrel rifle over his shoulder, the report stated.
A Hamptons spokesperson could not be reached for comment Friday.
Diana Washburn, the Hamptons Community Association manager, told police Fox had the right to report and document HOA violations but was never given authority to approach people or carry a weapon while enforcing its rules and regulations, the report stated.
After Fox opened his gun safe, he gave police two pistols, the short-barrel rifle, a shotgun and a pair of "silencers," which require a special federal permits to own, the report stated. Police arrested him on charges of aggravated assault with a firearm and openly carrying a firearm.
On Friday morning, Fox was released from the Orange County Jail on $2,600 bond.

Gun guys have a serious problem.

They're being led astray by marketers.  The whole Sheepdog concept emerged (in my opinion) from two things.  The first was the view that in an active shooter situation Police contain the situation before seeking to neutralize the suspect.  That means that if a shooting occurs in the Mall, the people inside would be told to hide to the best of their ability because police would secure the location and then SWAT would come along and do a room by room search until they could stop the bastard.

Gun guys know that means much more bloodshed till cops got there which means that in order to survive you needed a civilian with the training and ability to put those wildmen down.

The second was the fact that we've had an industry popup with regards to firearms training.  How do these companies stay in business?  By pushing the Sheepdog concept and by inventing all kinds of weirdness that has no practical application (have you seen some of these shooting stances that are so popular?).

I digress.  The active shooter scenario is valid and makes total sense.  But it is an extremely narrow scenario.  Properly applied the Sheepdog concept should be reserved for protecting you and your loved ones.  What do I mean?  You're in your car and someone tries to carjack you.  Blast him.  You see an old lady being punched in the head by a young punk.  Kill him and take pictures.  You will be a hero.

A weird teenager walking in a neighborhood?  Not so much. You call police and let them handle it.  A lady watching fireworks at a lake?  Not so much.

I'm not the one to do it but we have got to get this Sheepdog concept under control or it will setback the gun community.

What the fuck just happened? Silva knocked out????

Oh SHIT!

Did I really see that?

Did Silva get knocked out like a rookie facing a pro?

I'm not believing this!

Comments.

I did some reading on online privacy and was surprised about more than a few things.

One of the biggest surprises is that I negatively affected readers online privacy by requiring all commenters to have a Google ID in order to post.

My bad.  My very bad.

Thats nonsense and is no longer required. Anyone can post a comment without being affiliated with Google, Disqus, Wordpress or any other online entity.

That is all.

One Team, One Fight via Jinx Labs.

The guys at Jinx Lab are working on a high rez 3d version...this was just one of around a dozen different "versions" they're working on.  I kinda like it.  Call it Marine Corps bias but I like the idea that the Corps is at the center of it all!

RFA Tidespring replenishing RFA Argus. The latest CGI

A 21st Century Landing Craft.

NOTE:  I've recently mentioned the need to actually design forces capable of fighting in the Pacific.  I contend that those types of forces will be totally different from what we have today.  From the short legged F-22 to the underarmed, undermanned and under equipped LCS, we will need to rethink our strategy/procurement.  For the Marines, at the top of the list should be a high speed replacement for the LCU-1600 class.  If the Marine Expeditionary Brigade is the new "Unit of Action" and if Army's Heavy Brigade Combat Teams are going to flow into theater then we need a replacement asap.  See the article below for one option.  Of particular interest is that the author has seen fit to arms his landing craft.  I find such thinking refreshing.  

  A 21st Century Landing Craft. by snafu-solomon-blogspot-com

The wrong force for a future Asian conflict.

Thanks for the article Jonathan.

via Janes.

Asian powers are outpacing the United States to become the biggest spenders on defense by 2021 and are fuelling an “explosion” in the global arms trade, a study showed.
The global arms trade jumped by 30 percent to $73.5 billion between 2008-2012 in spite of the economic downturn, driven by surging exports from China and demand from countries like India, and is set to more than double by 2020, defense and security consultancy IHS Jane’s said and was reported by Reuters.
“Budgets are shifting East and global arms trade is increasing competition. This is the biggest explosion in trade the world has ever seen,” said Paul Burton, a senior manager at IHS Jane’s whose study looked at 34,000 defense acquisition programmes.
The United States has accounted for the lion’s share of global defense spending over the past decade, but budget cuts in Washington, as it withdraws from countries such as Afghanistan, mean that it will account for just 30 percent by 2021 to fall behind Asia at 31 percent.
Military spending in the Asia Pacific region – which includes China, India and Indonesia – will rise 35 percent to $501 billion in the next eight years, compared to a 28 percent fall in U.S. spending to $472 billion over the same period, IHS Jane’s said.
“The big Western defense companies have no option – export or shrink – but this could be sowing the seed of their own demise; the opportunities in the East are a double-edged sword, fuelling a trend which threatens U.S. dominance of defence.” said Guy Anderson, senior principal analyst at IHS Jane’s.
China’s ramp-up in defense spending in recent years is worrying its neighbors such as Japan, with whom it is currently embroiled in a stand-off over a series of uninhabited islands, despite its repeated reassurances that there is nothing to fear.
Japan, as well as India and South Korea, are among countries being courted by weapon makers such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing and BAE Systems who want to sell them fighter jets and other equipment to make up for reduced spending in their Western home markets, but such deals tend to require investment in the buyers’s defense industries.
Israeli sources told I-HLS that many of the future deals in Asia will include systems that aer either made for homeland security or that are defined “dual Use.”

Asia is appearing to be on the edge of a high tech conventional forces playground.

Almost every single country in the region is either in possession of or is in the process of acquiring modern, state of the art armored vehicles, fighters and naval vessels.  Included in that shopping list are UAVs and other high tech surveillance systems/equipment.

Simply put.

We're going to be fighting mirror images of ourselves with slight variations on the theme.  Congratulations partnership missions.  You succeeded.  Everyone lusted after our capabilities and now the entire region is about to have them.

The biggest issue facing the Pentagon?

We're building the wrong force to win in this new, emerging, high tech battlefield and with the wrong strategy.

*  How will the LCS fare in a high tech sea fight?
*  How will the short legged F-22 do against SU-30/35 and J-20 launching from extreme long range under direction of an integrated anti-air network?
*  Is Air Sea Battle valid with the force of the next 10 to 20 years?
*  Is over the horizon assault valid under these conditions or will it have to wait until defense are rolled back?
*  Is the Sea Base survivable against a technologically capable foe utilizing undersea robotic attack vehicles, multi-spectrum air attack, hypersonic anti-ship missiles and Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (why go after a carrier when you can cripple an assault assembling off shore?)
*  Do Stryker Brigades have a role against mechanized forces of equal capabilities?
*  Will Heavy Brigade Combat Teams even be able to function in restricted Asian cities, light load only (by Western standards) bridges and numerous waterways?

Our future force is sizing up to be the wrong force.  Want an even more troubling issue?  The Middle Eastern countries are rapidly arming up too.  The same issues apply.  Not only are they buying comparable equipment but in many cases its our stuff.  Once China cracks the code and starts selling high tech variations of our gear (without modifications or backdoors so that they can't be fully utilized) we'll face the same issues in the Middle East.

We're soon to suffer the hangover from a period of the worst Generalship in our nations history...both on the battlefield and in setting the table for future forces.

Turkish Air Force F-16 demo by Kevin Martin 1.

J-20 carrying next gen missiles via Chinese Military Review.

Note:  The bays aren't as big as I thought they were.  I imagined that it would accommodate 6 or maybe more missiles easily.  I was wrong.