Stay out of Syria via TacBlog.

Wow.

I don't know what to make of this.  I get the sentiment.  We would essentially be supporting Al Qaeda in the civil war.  That's infuriating.  But this thing in uniform is the same crap that
Hungry Hungry Hippo did in utilities when she tied herself to the White House fence to protest don't ask, don't tell.

Polish Concept Tank (real).

S. Korea and the USMC are in the same boat...its about the budget.

Thanks for the article Peter.

via World Outline.

However, the most convincing explanation seems to be the fear of “structural disarmament” of the ROK Air Force should it choose to buy yet another batch of expensive fighters to replace the aging F-4 Phantom and F-5 Tiger fighters. Simply stated, the more advanced the fighter jet, the more costly it is. The more expensive the jet, the fewer the South Korean military can purchase. The fewer stealth fighters purchased, the smaller the ROK Air Force.
Indeed, the limitations of South Korea’s US$7.43 billion budget for fighter acquisition and procurement (A & P) seems to have been the primary motivating factor in selecting the F-15SE. As Soon-ho Lee warned last month, “if the F-X project is pursued as planned, the ROK Air Force may have to scrap the contentious Korean Fighter eXperimental (KFX) project, which [may leave] the ROK Air Force [with] only around 200 fighters.”

Money.  It always comes back to money.

The S. Koreans looked at their budget, and determined what they could afford.  Inside that revolutionary construct they chose a  capable, but non-stealthy airplane.

What is scaring the living shit out of the F-35 program office and Amos is the idea that other nations will take a good long look at their budget.  They'll also get the latest brief from Boeing on the Ultra Hornet and they'll have to decide.

If the Ultra Hornet can do 90% of the F-35 missions at half the price then why buy the more expensive airplane (this is applicable because some of the classified stuff the Navy is doing with the Super Hornet will make its way over to the F-1SE).

90% capability vs. 100% perfection.

I'll take the 90 while being able to have a balanced force over the 100 that is biased. 

China's proposed Nicaragua Canal.

While both of our political parties seem to relish the role of the US playing Global Policeman, China is quietly and efficiently gaining status through a real free trade scheme.

They've played the game perfectly in Africa and are steadily cornering the market in precious minerals.  Now they're taking the game to Central America.

The Chinese are planning to build a "SUPER" canal through Nicaragua.  Besides being large enough to allow a carrier to pass through it, it also will bring economic vitality to the Nicaraguan people.

China is drinking our milkshake.  Read about it here.

Information on the corporation that is going to do the work can be found here.

Syrian Order of Battle. S-300.

The S-300.  Anyone with even a passing knowledge of military matters has heard of this missile.  This is one of the boogeymen of all air forces, and with good reason.

You have a very powerful missile (thats fast) coupled with a superb transporter along with phased array radar.

In other words, while you're flying in to hit in at one location, it can move at high speed to setup at another.  Partner this system with the Pantsir S1 and you have a powerful system.

The World's Strangest Combat out Post.

“Their lives are very hard... but they are Marines. They are used to that kind of thing,” said the retired general

via the Philippine Star.

A handful of Marines living on a World War II-era ship that is grounded on a remote, tiny reef is the  Philippines’ last line of defense against China’s efforts to control most of the South China Sea.  The soldiers are stationed on Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands aboard a former US tanklanding vessel that was deliberately abandoned there to serve as a base, according to their former
commander, Juancho Sabban.  “Their lives are very hard... but they are Marines. They are used to that kind of thing,” said the retired  general, former head of military forces in the western Philippines that  has jurisdiction over the area.
“There is no ground, they live on a grounded ship. They depend only on supplies that are delivered to  them on logistics runs.”
The shoal and the lives of the troops guarding it were thrust into the global spotlight this week after the  Philippines said a Chinese warship was “illegally and provocatively” circling the area.  It was the latest in a series of aggressive steps by China in recent years to assert its claim over the  South China Sea that have rattled the Philippines,  with others including the Chinese occupation of another Filipino-claimed shoal.  China says it has sovereign rights over nearly all of the South China Sea, even waters far away from its  main landmass and approaching the coasts of Southeast Asian countries.  The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also claim parts of the sea, and the area has for  decades been regarded as a potential trigger for major military conflict in the region.  Dozens of Vietnamese soldiers died in losing battles in 1974 and 1988 with Chinese forces for control of  islands in the sea, which are believed to sit  atop reserves of oil and gas worth billions of dollars  The Spratlys archipelago, which has hundreds of islands, reefs and atolls, is one of the most hotly  contested areas of the sea.  All claimants, except Brunei, station troops on various sized islands and atolls in the Spratlys to back their  claims.  The Philippines occupies nine of the Spratlys, including Thitu island, the second-largest in the area.  Second Thomas Shoal is a tiny group of islets and reefs about 200 kilometers (120 miles) northwest of  the Philippine island of Palawan, the nearest major landmass.  Resupply ships take between 36 and 40 hours to reach it, depending on the weather.  Eugenio Bito-onon, mayor of the region that oversees the Philippine-held Spratlys, described the shoal as  an eight-kilometer-long, oblong-shaped coral reef that barely rises above the water.  “It sinks at high tide,” Bito-onon told AFP.  The BRP Sierra Madre, a 100-meter (328-foot) amphibious vessel built for the United States in 1944 and  acquired by the Filipino navy in 1976, was  deliberately grounded in the late 1990s to shelter the garrison, according to Bito-onon.  He said each of the Philippine-held islands was manned by “at most” a dozen Marines or navy personnel.  Neither Sabban nor defense department spokesman Peter Galvez would confirm to AFP the troops’ exact numbers, nor their weaponry.  However, Galvez said the grounded vessel produces its own electricity generated from its fuel-powered  engine, giving the shoal garrison access to indoor entertainment, including movies and video games.  “It’s still a functioning ship. It’s just considered a ship in distress,” Galvez told AFP.

Crazy cool. 

General Mattis on Syria.

via Business Insider...

Mattis continued to harp on having a political end state and clear goals before any military action — whether that be boots on the ground or no-fly zone — or else he said, "you invade a country, pull down a statue, then say 'now what do we do?'"
The general told Blitzer the military "is not worn out" and can carry out any mission, but "we should not fight wars without a clearly defined end state ... when you go to war, it can't be a half-step" — meaning, you have to be fully committed to winning.

Awesome.

Finally a bit of common sense.  Read it all here.

Syrian Order of Battle. Pantsir S1 Anti Aircraft System.

If the US style of warfare is being used in the run up to Syria then you can bet that drones are flying all over the place trying to get a view on where key facilities and personnel are located.

What might slow down that effort?  The Pantsir S1 anti air system.  Read about the particulars here, but lets sum it up by saying it sports two 30mm cannons and 12 ready to launch missiles.

Add a few Russian Advisers,  stir in lazy mission planning and we could see a few UAVs get knocked down.

But even more interesting is the fact that these weapons also have the capability to target cruise missiles...especially slow ones like the Tomahawk.

Sidenote:  This is the same system that the Syrians credited with shooting down a Turkish RF-4E doing a recon mission along their coast.

Chicken Shit Decision Making

Its the first weekend of College Football.

I live in the South.

That means that blogging will be almost non-existent tonight while I watch LSU beat the living dog shit out of TCU.  I was reading my blog roll and Defense News posted this piece.  Read it all here but...

Obama looks reasonable by holding off on sending tens of Raytheon-built Tomahawk missiles to pound Assad regime and military targets. If either or both chambers of Congress opts against coming back from a weeks-long recess a week early to debate and vote on a Syria use-of-force resolution, given those disapproval numbers, Obama is betting Americans will view lawmakers as unreasonable.
That’s doubly so because a large number of lawmakers from both parties and both chambers this week urged Obama to let Congress debate and vote before he green-lighted any military strikes. The president some have called too unwilling to engage in political warfare with Congress just called their collective bluff.
What’s more, this decision very well could allow Obama to play tiebreaker in chief. The GOP-controlled House has tried to block or de-fund just about everything Obama has pushed. And with over 70 percent of Americans skeptical about a Syrian strike, there’s plenty of reason to believe he will lose Democratic House members when the chamber finally votes on Syria.

I beg to differ and it has nothing to do with politics.  It has everything to do with leadership.  The President stated that this must be done.  He also stated or it was leaked, that time was of the essence.  That we needed to punish the Assad Regime now so there would be no confusion about why we were launching strikes.

And now he decides to wait.

That's chicken shit leadership.  If you are utterly convinced that your course of action is a matter of national security and you're President of the US, then you are duty bound to act.  I might disagree but I'm not looking at the intel briefings every morning.  If this is a clear and present danger to our nation then he's duty bound to do the deed.

But we all know its not about that.  Its about a guy that bluffed, got called on the bluff and is now trying his best to not be seen as changing his mind/backing down...whatever.

This is about ego.  Not national security.

A little Saturday Funny to balance out all the craziness from DC.

Syrian Order of Battle. American ground forces.

Everyone is doing a roll call of ship and plane movements.  Well to be precise, everyone is paying attention to the press releases that the Pentagon is feeding the public.  But what happens when we take a look at the ground forces that are in the region?

You might be surprised at a quick tally I did (most of this is from memory and confirmation is difficult...correct me where I'm wrong).

*  26th MEU(-) arrived off shore to join the battle group.  A token force of 300 Marines aboard a San Antonio Class LPD.  I find this an interesting choice.  Definitely reduced troop compliment, if I were to guess you probably have the "Maritime Raid Force" with a Company Reinforced of Marines from the BLT to provide support.  What other Special Operations personnel are on board is anyones guess.

*  Patriot Missile Batteries along the Turkish border.  I'm sure they've been reinforced with a grunt unit or two to provide security.  This is also another opportunity for SOCOM to stage personnel.

*  Last but definitely not least and possibly the best indicator of where this thing is going is the 1st Armored Division FWD that setup shop on the Jordanian border.

Still.  Thats far from enough ground troops to deal with unforeseen circumstances.

This Syria thing will end badly.

Many of my liberal readers are going to take issue with me but I listened to this several times and each time it rubbed me raw.

At about the 30 second mark the President says "my military" and "our team".  Many will blow that off to his speech patterns.  I consider it extremely telling.  If you want to see a "little Hitler" complex,  simply observe a man that is given the power of command without accepting the responsibility of it.

I really believe this entire episode will end badly.  Bob sent me a link to an article that is telling.  In short we prepare for phase III but not phase IV of conflicts...in other words its easy to do the kinetic stuff, its hard to deal with the aftermath.  As rushed as this has been, there is no way anyone has properly ran and planned for all the scenarios if this goes sideways (and moving a MEU(-) into the area is hardly comforting).  Thank God Syria is on Europes doorsteps and not ours.

Syrian Order of Battle. Scud-C.

An oldie but a goodie.  Basics are as follows...

*  Has a 500 mile range.
*  Carries a 600 kg payload.
*  Has a CEP of 700m (this is really unimpressive but we are talking about 1960's technology).
*  Assad has used these weapons against the rebels with reportedly devastating effect.  People describe massive destruction after one hits.

Again, this is not an impressive weapon but if you think back to your Gulf War One history, then you'll realize that not even our Patriots were entirely successful in shooting them down.  Even the remnants can be deadly.

Syrian Order of Battle. The P-800 Yakhont Missile.

*  Syria reportedly has 72, P-800 Yakhont missiles.
*  They have a range of 120km if surface launched, 300km if air launched.
*  If surface launched they have a speed of Mach 2.
*  It supposedly has a low radar cross section to make interception more difficult.
*  Sea skimming up to sea state 5.
*  Has active countermeasures to defeat jamming, spoofing and chaff.
*  Served as the basis for the Russian-Indian Brahmos missile.

Normalcy Bias Experts will say no big deal.  Our Navy can easily handle these "vampires".  I simply ask.  When was the last time a Navy had to deal with inbound antiship missiles?

That's right.  The Israelis against a C-802 launched against a SAAR-5 by Hezbollah.  The results?  The ship was badly damaged.  The excuse given to the world was that the automated defense systems were switched off.  I say poppycock.  The Israeli Navy might be the smallest of their services but they're thoroughly professional.  I'm not buying it.  Additionally what kind of propaganda victory would the Hezbollah grab if it was admitted that their missiles easily defeated an Israeli warship?

Before that skirmish the only other example we have is the Falklands War.  A bloody messy affair....and the Argies only had a handful of Exocet missiles.  The Syrians have 72 P-800s.

Does Syria show that the need for stealth is overplayed?

Question.

Is the need for stealth in strike missions being overplayed?  Notice I said for strike missions, not air superiority but for strike?  The question needs to be asked because Syria is a mini-anti access exercise.  You have a country with at least moderately effective anti-air capabilities, decent anti-ship capabilities and in order to roll back their defenses its assumed that we're going to launch a robust Tomahawk strike on the designated targets.

Air is not needed.  And even if we were to put up a no-fly zone we'd still do it the same way.  Air defenses would be pounded mercilessly.  We bomb fixed sites, hunt down every other site with UAVs and when located we'd Tomahawk them too.

If we were to use strike aircraft in these packages it would be to launch bombs that had sufficient glide angle as to keep the aircraft out of range of the targets and hopefully we'd have F-22's flying top cover.

If I'm even remotely correct in this scenario then do we really need as much stealth as we're being sold or did we miss the boat by focusing on the bow instead of the arrow?

Just a question.

Ohio Class SSGN. Any other ship for the Syria mission is just for show.

The USN is a powerhouse.

By itself it fields a formidable Air Force, has at its disposal a highly effective Marine Corps that rivals some nations army's in size and dwarfs many in capabilities, and it has a single warship that is capable of laying waste to a small country single handed.

The SSGN.  A cruise missile firing Ohio Class Submarine could perform the entire strike mission (I'm guessing) on Syria by itself.

154 Tomahawk Cruise Missiles.

Thats more than the UK has in its entire arsenal (not picking on the UK, just using them to illustrate the point).  We have that many on one sub.  We have four subs so equipped.

The Navy is sending 5 warships to the area in preparation for this strike.

Its all for show.  They could get it done with a single ship...if we were serious about getting the job done and not posturing for all to see.  And having said that imagine the shock, awe and fear that would have ensued had we decided to exercise a little OPSEC, have one of our SSGNs pop its entire payload at Syria and then announce to the world that we will not tolerate Chemical Weapons use against civilians.

The American public would be chest thumping the exercise of force for a worthy cause.  Europe would be shamed by their inaction.  Putin would be shocked at America's audacity...and dictators worldwide would be shitting their pants.

Think Defence vs. Lexington Institute.

Talk about dueling commentaries!

Think Defence is taking the position that the vote by the UK to not participate in Syria is no big deal and the special relationship continues (read it here).

Lexington Institute is taking the position that the special relationship died with the Syria vote and that it ended with a British whimper (read it here).

I don't know who's right, but I tend to lean toward the Lexington Institute position.  The US is about to turn inward and if we do raise our head to become involved it will be with a clear understanding that OUR national security is at stake.  That means the next time a European adventure is in the offing (think Libya 2) we will remind the UK of this vote.  The difference?  We can go it alone if necessary.  The UK  can't.

S. African Defense Force Sniper makes 2 kilometer plus kill?

via Defense Web.

The softly spoken but steely-eyed man who heads the SA National Defence Force’s (SANDF) Joint Operations division will not be drawn on whether a South African operator made one of the longest confirmed sniper kill shots in history.
Various South African media have carried reports of a successful two kilometre plus kill by a South African soldier deployed in the DRC as part of the UN Force Intervention Brigade (FIB) this week.
“South Africa was not specifically requested to supply snipers as part of its troop contribution but the 850-strong battalion moved to the DRC to be part of the FIB does have certain capabilities,” Lieutenant General Derrick Mgwebi told a briefing in Thaba Tshwane this morning when asked about the sniper’s kill.
“That is a question you would have to ask the UN,” was all he would say. At the time of publication the UN Peacekeeping Operations website did not carry any information about the sniper shot.
One report said at least six M23 rebels were killed by South African snipers. This apparently included one killed at a range of 2 125 metres. If verified this would become the sixth longest confirmed combat sniper shot in history, military writer Darren Olivier has said.
The reports also indicated that small teams of SANDF snipers have been operating behind M23 lines to disrupt the rebel group’s supply lines. The sniper was apparently using a South African specialist anti-materiel rifle – an NTW 20 or NTW 14.5 – a weapon designed and manufactured by the State-owned defence industry conglomerate, Denel.
Indications are the sniper was part of a two-man team with his spotter, responsible for “lighting up” selected targets with a laser.

The S. Africans were fighting terrorist before fighting terrorist was cool.  They also have a proud martial history and make some unique equipment.

This wouldn't surprise me one bit. 

Switzerland Defense Committee votes "yes" to Gripen procurement.

via Press Release.

The procurement of Gripen in Switzerland received a strong endorsement this week when the Defence Committee of the Swiss two-chamber parliament's National Council recommended the Gripen deal with a 14-9 vote.

As noted in The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, the procurement is now expected to continue its journey through the Swiss Parliament, moving to the plenum of the Nationalrat for votation on 11 September.

Good news for SAAB.

I wanna see it come to Red Flag, for the rules to be made public and for us all to see exactly how well it does. 

Free Intel.

via the Free Beacon.

A fifth U.S. warship steamed toward the eastern Mediterranean on Thursday to join four other cruise missile destroyers poised for strikes on Syria, as U.S. and allied military planning continued for a bombing campaign against Syria.
U.S. intelligence agencies, meanwhile, continued to put the finishing touches on an assessment the Obama administration expects will conclusively link Syrian government and military leaders to the deadly nerve agent strike near Damascus Aug. 21.
A defense official said the fifth destroyer, the USS Stout, would soon arrive in waters near Syria. The warship is armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles.

I hate these demonstrations of power without an actual military goal.  Besides being wasteful, besides causing unnecessary casualties...they also give the enemy (in this case the Russians, Chinese and Iranians) a pretty good look into our operations.

It also gives the bad guys a glimpse into the combat loadouts of our warships.  If the Russians and Chinese are smart they'll be sending intel ships to the scene at flank speed just so they can count missiles coming off each ship.

Additionally there is suppose to be a submarine in the area that's been converted into a Tomahawk carrier.  That's the real battleship in this scenario and that makes counting warheads from the destroyer even more important.  How does a US Sub launch its payload under combat conditions?  What is the ratio of missiles fired to the platforms deployed?  How far off the coast do we stage our ships when a credible anti-ship missile is available (the Syrians supposedly have the P-800 in service)

We're doing more than wasting missiles on a questionable mission.  We're giving the enemy another look at our playbook for free.