Ebola News. Two blogs, two differing opinions...UPDATED!

Remember that little thing that was spreading in Africa named Ebola?

Well we haven't heard much lately and that's curious because we still have a ton of Soldiers and Marines either in country or heading there (101st you drew the short straw you unlucky bastards).

Which brings me to this.  Two blogs I follow, American Mercenary and Shepard of the Gurneys, have differing opinions on whats happening (did you know that a person with symptoms was recently admitted to a hospital here in the US?).

I have no idea.  My prediction from the past?  They're keeping a lid on things till after the Christmas holidays.  We'll see if my pessimistic view, along with SOTG is correct or if AM is right.

UPDATE!  SOTG is reporting that Sierra Leone is cancelling Christmas.  Details here.

Air power theory takes another hit...

Thanks to Info Infanterie for the link.

So what does the above photo have to do with anything?  Well first check out this website.

Let me get you up to speed.  The IDF struck sites in Syria.  Supposedly they were time sensitive and it was a short fused mission so the Israeli's went in hard and fast.

They launched Popeye standoff missiles at the target and supposedly were able to destroy it....but.....

Syrian air defenses didn't lay down and die.  They fought back and launched several anti-air missiles at the Israeli Air Force.  This time though they were not only aiming at aircraft but also missiles.

And the Syrians claim that they were able to knock one down.

A degraded and damaged air defense system was able to knock down an Israeli stand off weapon.

Air power theory just took another hit.

It appears that attackers will need so many cruise missiles that they overwhelm defenders OR they need to develop supersonic and faster attack missiles.

Payloads over platforms.  The US Navy is on the right track.

Canadian report confirms continued F-35 price increase.

Major thanks to ELP Blog!

via Ottawa Citizen

Defence officials estimate they will actually need more than $1 billion in contingency funds to protect against the effects of a weaker Canadian dollar, inflation and other countries cutting back on how many planes they purchase.
The report suggests that if an extra $1 billion is needed, “the remaining shortfall could be met by buying fewer aircraft.” It adds that the government “will consider the frozen acquisition envelope,” suggesting the $9-billion cap could be removed.
An attached government-commissioned review of National Defence’s numbers by Quebec accounting firm Raymond Chabot Grant Thornton noted defence officials had not actually studied whether it was feasible to buy fewer than 65 F-35s.
Canada had originally planned to purchase 80 F-35s to replace its CF-18s, but scaled back the order in 2006. The government has not said why it reduced the plan, but senior military commanders have suggested 65 is the minimum the air force needs.

Read the whole thing but what you see in the above passage is a classic "death spiral" scenario.

You heard it here first boys and girls.

This turkey is about to die.  The world economy is probably going to be the main culprit too.  The F-35 was based on a weak dollar, high oil prices and continued growth in Europe and China.  We're seeing the exact opposite now.  A strong dollar (getting stronger all the time as Southern Europe and China continue to slow down), cratering oil prices and weak consumer spending world wide.

This does explain the "extra" F-35 in that sinful Congressional bill though.  They're trying desperately to increase production but it just isn't working.

This is going to be fun to watch.

Even Taiwan is building a better LCS than us!

Ok.  This is getting to be a tiring meme.

We develop a concept to fit a need.  We build the first in class.  Its deficient in so many areas that it isn't funny.

Then an ally builds something better.

Israel set itself up for more violence.

Check this out from Jerusalem Online.

The autopsy of the Palestinian minister who died yesterday during a demonstration does not resolve the dispute between the Palestinian Authority and Israel regarding the cause of death - although Israeli officials have admitted that conflict with the Border Police officer may have led to his death.
Medical sources in Israel are aware of the details of the investigation of the joint autopsy that showed that senior Palestinian official Ziad Abu Ein died of a heart attack. However, the source added that it is quite possible the heart attack was caused by stress due to the fact that he was held and dragged by the neck by a border policeman.

No matter how you slice it this is unwanted in Israel.  They're undergoing a change in government, they just conducted a highly successful but extremely risky airstrike in Syria and now this.

I expect more fighting to erupt there and perhaps another Protective Edge 2 military operation.

Dragging anyone around by the neck is just plain wrong.  Being a Israeli Border Policeman and doing it to a Palestinian official is just plain stupid.  Oh and that's coming from a guy that does not sympathize with the Palestinians.

Malaysian Army receives first batch of AV8 Infantry Fighting Vehicles.

Thanks for the link Jonathan.

via Janes.

The Malaysian Army took delivery of the first 12 of an order of 257 Deftech AV8 Gempita armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs) at the manufacturer's facility in Pekan on 6 December.
Malaysian Army Chief General Raja Mohamed Affandi bin Raja Mohamed Noor accepted the 12 vehicles, all of which are the IFV-25 variant, in a ceremony witnessed by Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak, who formally named the vehicle the Gempita, which is a Malay term for thunderous noise.
The AV8 replaces Malaysia's obsolete fleet of SIBMAS (6x6) and Condor (4x4) AFVs and is a further development of the Turkish FNSS Savunma Sistemleri Paris (8x8).
The IFV-25 variant is fitted with a one-person FNSS Sharpshooter turret armed with a stabilised ATK Armament Systems M242 25 mm dual-feed cannon and an FN MAG 58M 7.62 mm co-axial machine gun (MG). Of the 257 vehicle order of 12 variants, a total of 46 vehicles will be in this configuration.
The 12 vehicles will be assigned to the 19th Battalion, Royal Malay Regiment, which is said to require 88 Gempitas in total.
Firing trials in South Africa are expected to be carried out in the first quarter of 2015 on the AFV-30 and ATGW variants, 68 and 54 units of which have been ordered. The AFV-30 mounts a Denel Land Systems (DLS) two-person LCT-30 turret with a DLS stabilised 30 mm GI-30 external dual-feed linkless cannon and an FN MAG 58M MG while the ATGW variant also has a LCT-30 turret with a bank of two Denel Dynamics Ingwe anti-tank missiles on each side.

You know what I'm thinking.  Yeah...even Malaysia...but not the USMC.  I'm running out of walls.

Russian Military Websites you should check out....

Thanks to Robert and Info-Infaterie for the links!

BPDM Typhoon-M (BPDM Typhoon-M)

I got a couple of jewels for you ... if you're interested in Russian armor that is.  The first is Vitaly V. Kuzmin's site.  Its a must see and there is enough information to clear up a bit of the confusion we have in the West with regard to their armor.  Exhibit number one is the vehicle above...the BPDM Typhoon-M.

The next is Sdelanounas.ru .

Check them both out.  You will not regret it.

CIMSEC destroys current Marine Corps doctrine! A MUST READ!

Have you ever been absolutely certain that the "supposedly smartest guys in the room" were smoking crack on a particular subject but you couldn't get others to believe you because it went against conventional wisdom?

If any of the above applies then welcome to my world.  Or at least what was once my world when it came to Marine Corps doctrine until CIMSEC published this article (read it here).  The main take away?  I was right, HQMC was wrong...Check out these tidbits...

The Marine Corps recently rolled out their Expeditionary Force 21 (EF21) “vision,” which states that Marines will need to be able to conduct ship-to-shore operations from 65 nautical miles away—an incredible distance for any kind of surface assault. The analysis (or lack thereof….EF21 was developed independent of the U.S. Navy) behind EF21 is the belief that amphibious ships will be susceptible to coastal-defense cruise missiles (CDCMs). Rather than adhere to joint doctrine, for some inexplicable reason the Marine Corps has decided the way around enemy capability is not to neutralize but rather to swim right through it with future high-speed amphibious combat vehicles (ACVs).

That kinda explains the issues with getting the ACV into service doesn't it.  A massive amphibious assault and the Marine Corps is going solo?  Ain't gonna happen and leadership knew it.

The Marine Corps refuses to accept that the U.S. Navy and the joint force will first set conditions for any possible future amphibious assault in accordance with Joint and Naval Doctrine, which currently allows for the first amphibious assault wave to be launched within 12 nautical miles (or closer)—not 65 nautical miles

How many times have you heard me bitching about the arbitrary distance that Amos was peddling?  How many times have you heard me talk about rolling back enemy defenses and setting up corridors for our AAVs, LCACs, LCUs and JHSVs?

Although the short, take-off, and landing version of the F-35B Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) is possibly the best fighter jet ever built, it is not a close-air support platform and was never intended to be. The F-35 is designed for high-end, air supremacy operations during the setting of battlefield conditions that occur long before landing forces ever arrive in theater.

Maybe the powers that be are finally catching on to what ever Jar Head below the rank of general has known all along.

We can only hope. 

Sidenote:  Make no mistake about it.  Freeman is part of what I call the Special Ops Cabal inside the Marine Corps that has had the ear of the former Commandant.  Notice his comparisons of the Marine Corps to SOCOM over and over again?  He can be right on the doctrine needing fixing and wrong on the solution.  The author fails to realize that SOCOM takes "the best" of the conventional forces, has lavish funding and can call on conventionals for outstanding support.  Additionally they have the option of saying "no" we can't do that.  The doctrine needs fixing, but reality must be acknowledged.  Freeman doesn't do that.

Quote of the day...

Already the RAF has something in the range of 140 Eurofighters on its books, of which it can man and use about 40.

The above quote is from a piece that I linked to today that described potential budget cuts to the UK military.

That is astounding.

How can the Brit military be serious about buying the F-35 if they have top tier fighters sitting unused?

UK military poised to be destroyed from within.

Thanks Jonathan for the link!

via TheWeek.

Cuts will be so severe that Nato could classify our reduced forces not as an army, but a gendarmerie
If George Osborne is to be taken at his word - and if the Conservatives are returned to power in May – the public spending cuts he is planning will trigger the biggest downturn in Britain’s defence capability we have seen in modern times, and therefore this country’s position in the world.
In short, the British Army could be reduced to around 63,000 personnel – so small it would be classified by Nato as a gendarmerie.
Responsible commentators, including two leading BBC programmes, Newsnight and The World at One, are forecasting between 30 and 40 per cent cuts in the budgets of the Ministry of Defence and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. That means reducing the current military defence budget of £36 billion to somewhere between £20 - £25 billion.
The cuts have to be this severe because the budgets for health, education and overseas aid are to be ‘ring-fenced’. (The aid budget, managed by the Department for Foreign Investment and Development, will run at £12bn, and will rise as the economy grows.)
In a worst-case scenario, sketched by several leading commentators, the MoD will be asked to lose a total of at least 50,000 military and civilian posts. The Army, already reduced under present policies to 82,000, is likely to lose a further 19,000 soldiers.
Osborne’s pledge to have Britain in the black by the end of the decade makes the undertaking given by David Cameron at September’s Nato summit in Cardiff - to spend two per cent of GDP on defence - sound like sheer whimsy or a cynical deception plan.
Estimates suggest that Osborne’s cuts would require the UK to spend only 1.2 per cent of GDP on defence - below that of France (1.4 per cent) and roughly equal with Italy.
And yet the government has just announced that the Royal Navy is to open a new £15 million base in Bahrain, the first east of Suez since 1971. And, of course, Cameron promised at Cardiff that the second aircraft carrier, the Prince of Wales, is to be commissioned after all.
Further commitments are to be made to the training of friendly forces and the air campaign against Islamic State militants in Iraq. (This despite a letter appearing in the press from a disgruntled officer saying that the RAF’s force of Tornados operating over Iraq out of Cyprus are dangerously low on maintenance and spares.)
Also this past weekend, a leak to the Sunday Times suggested that RAF planes and UK ground forces may have to return to Afghanistan to help the newly installed president, Ashraf Ghani, thwart the Taliban offensive on Kabul and in the south of the country.
But if Osborne is to have his way on public spending cuts, Britain will be in no position to offer sustained help in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, eastern Europe or anywhere much else for that matter.
This is mainly due to the government’s insistence that it will stick to current equipment plans, as laid down in the Strategic Security and Defence Review of autumn 2010.

Working from figures and projections by the Resolution Foundation, Francis Tusa, who runs his own independent think tank and journal Defence Analysis, suggests that within a few years the UK will be spending 70 per cent of its defence budget on equipment, meaning a huge reduction in manpower.
As well as cutting the Army by a further 19,000 to a force of around 63,000, the Navy would have to be reduced by 8,000 down to around 20,000 and the RAF by 5,000 to around 27,500. The Royal Marines would be unviable.
In short, the three services will have a lot of swanky equipment, including two new aircraft carriers, but too few personnel to maintain or run that equipment properly. Already the RAF has something in the range of 140 Eurofighters on its books, of which it can man and use about 40.
Now we get to the elephant in the room – Trident. If the projections of 30 to 40 per cent cuts are accurate, the replacement for the current Trident system of ballistic missiles, Britain’s nuclear deterrent, surely has to be written off for good.

Just plain wow.

F-35 News. China claims the J-31 is superior to the F-35.

Thanks for the link William!

via Investors Business Daily.

The battle for stealth is heating up with China boasting that its J-31 stealth fighter can out-fly Lockheed Martin's (NYSE:LMT) F-35, according to the president of Aviation Industry Corp of China on Tuesday."When it takes to the sky, it can definitely take it down," Lin Zuoming said on China Central Television in reference to the F-35, according to Reuters. "That's a certainty."
China wants to make its version of the stealth fighter available to countries that don't have access or the money for the F-35, which is the Pentagon's costliest weapons program.

Read the entire article here.

Should we be worried?  No.  Should we be aware?  Definitely.  But we've been here before.  After the Vietnam War the United States pulled its head out of the jungle, looked around and saw that the Soviet Union had "better" fighters.

What did we do?

We honed tactics.  We developed better missiles.  We designed world beating aircraft.

We can do it again.

But first we have to kill the albatross from Lockheed Martin called the F-35.

Russian Marines on exercise...

English Russia has another photo spread on Russian Marines conducting an amphibious assault exercise.  Definitely worth a look-see.  I've been beating the drum and the Russians seem to embrace it much more than we do.  WTF am I talking about?  Joint amphibious-airborne operations!  Historically its not something that we've done very much but I still believe that outside of tiny islands in the Pacific, its a natural partnership that can amplify the hitting power of expeditionary/rapid reaction (I despise the new buzzword, crisis response, with every ounce of my soul) forces.

A bit more on the forward firing V-22...

Warfare Technology Blog posted the below pic of a nose mounted gun system for the V-22.  Go to his house for more info.  One thing is becoming obvious.  The V-22 in the assault role is faltering.  The idea that the V-22's speed would protect it is another instance of hope being trumped by reality.

Denmark M-113 replacement contest goes forward.

BAE CV90 Armadillo

FFG PMMC G5

General Dynamics Piranha V

Nexter VBCI

General Dynamics ASCOD

via Defense News

One of Europe’s most important armored vehicle export contests moved closer to resolution today when four manufacturers delivered best and final offers covering five different platforms to the Danish Ministry of Defence.
Denmark is looking for a fleet of wheeled or tracked vehicles to replace aging M113 armored personnel carriers.
Numbers are uncertain at this stage. Denmark included options for 206,360 and 450 machines built in six configurations in their requirements.
Industry executives reckon the current focus appears to be leaning toward an initial buy of 206 machines.
The competition pits tracked contenders BAE Systems Hagglunds with its CV90 Armadillo, Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft (FFG) with the PMMC G5, and General Dynamics European Land Systems ASCOD against 8x8 wheeled rivals Nexter with the Vehicule de Combat d’Infanterie (VBCI) and General Dynamics with the Piranha V.
BAE, FFG and Nexter confirmed they have submitted a final offer. General Dynamics declined to comment.
Companies submitted original bids in 2012 with the current contenders shortlisted in February 2013.
One industry executive said the competition is important in its own right because it’s a buyer’s market for armored vehicles in Europe right now, but winning the deal could also have wider significance.
“The contract could be a potential gateway into a market for the large number of M113s coming up for replacement; a good chunk of those will involve high-end users like the Danes,” said the executive, who asked not to be named.
The Danish decision probably won’t answer the perennial tracks-versus-wheels argument, but it might provide a pointer or two as to which way the debate is moving, particularly as the selected vehicle will likely have to operate in extremes of climate from the Arctic to the desert.
One French source said there was informal feedback that the wheeled vehicles outperformed the tracked during a 17-week trial of all the vehicles last year.

I just don't get it!  What am I missing!  IF the Frenchman is being honest, and if the evaluators weren't busting sunshine off his ass then what happened to simple physics when it comes to ground mobility!  Are we simply seeing the effects of limited budgets on defense departments and the advantage of lower fuel/maintenance costs trumping real mobility over all ground?

What would air forces do if the F-35 is canned?

A massive what if but its constantly being thrown up as the "ultimate" excuse to keep going forward with what everyone know is a flawed program.

So what happens if the F-35 is canceled?  Oh and before you go one step further this is just an off the top of the head, arm chair general list.  I'm sure there are better ideas floating around...probably inside the Defense Depts and Ministries of the countries involved.  This is just an exercise in "what if" thinking.

USAF.

The main problem for the USAF isn't that they will be losing the F-35.  The problem for them is that they will have to admit that a concept has gone beyond its shelf life.  That concept?  Stealth!  But to the issue at hand.  The USAF could simply opt for new build Advanced F-16's.  They could take advantage of tech developed for the F-35 and revive proposals from the past.  Fitting F-22 engines into the F-16.  Building the F-16XL air frame.  Working with the US Navy to develop aerial lasers.  Taking as much of the sensor fusion from the F-35 that can quickly and affordably put into the Advanced F-16....but again.  The problem isn't stealth.  The problem is concept.  The lowest level and most affordable option is to simply put the F-22, F-16 and F-15 back into production...upgraded to the extent affordable and work on a real deal 6th gen fighter.

USN & USMC carrier mission.

This one is obvious.  The Advanced Super Hornet.  Instead of a modest upgrade as is planned now we go full force.  More powerful engines.  Make it as stealthy as is possible.  Take what widgets you can from the F-35 program. Consider a full hybrid force of Growler/Advanced Super Hornet Frankenstein models that combine the features of both aircraft to make your entire fleet capable of conducting electronic warfare, an area where the USN is the world leader and call it a day.  An even easier solution would be to simply piggy back off Navy buys of the Advanced Super Hornet.

USMC.

Extremely simple.  Follow the backup plan that saw the Marine Corps purchase British Harriers.  Keep the AV-8B in service until 2030 and beyond.  Purchase Advanced Super Hornets and position them with SPMAGTFs (they already deploy with KC-130's...putting F-18's in the mix shouldn't be hard) and forward deploy them to cover MEU's.

Brits and Allies.

The Brits will have the most heartburn among our allies to a possible cancellation of the F-35.  The Dutch, Italians, Japanese, Australians, Canadians and others will almost smile that the heart wrenching and budget busting decision has been taken out of their hands.

They'll want refunds and that will be sticky...but it doesn't have to be.  They'll need replacement aircraft and will probably follow the USN and USAF's lead on buying upgraded F-15 and 16's.  Discounted pricing should make the financial ministry smile and lessen the pain while at the same time getting them an affordable option that matches US jets and planning.

But what about the Brit carriers?

Interesting issue.  The Brits have a couple of options here.  First they can piggy back off the USN and install electromagnetic launch systems on their ships or they can make them huge LHDs.  Personally I believe that the Brit carrier mafia will want the capability to launch conventional aircraft.  That means you're looking at either Super Hornets or Rafale's for the decks.  I have no idea which way the wind blows in the UK on the issue.

The facts?

Its real simple.  There is a way out.  Is it pleasant?  No.  Is it pain free?  Not at all.  Does it stop the bleeding now?  Definitely.  All it takes is the will and the acknowledgement that a mistake was made and needs to be corrected.

Physical courage is easy.  Moral courage is hard.

UPDATE:  I did not consider another airplane that is currently available that is low cost, STOL capable and would truly get Marine Air headed back in the direction of an affordable AND capable part of the Marine Corps.  The SAAB Gripen!  If it is equipped with the same engines as the Super Hornet, if the same avionics are installed then we can have an extremely capable close air support with fighter capability we've always wanted.  Then we turn our attention to developing more capable missiles and enhancing our electronic attack and all is right with the world again.

Is the mount on the V-22 forward firing rockets retractable?

Is the mount on the V-22 retractable?

I've never seen this type of "contraption" on an airplane or helicopter but that means absolutely nothing.  By enlarging the pic it appears to be "foldable"...how I have no idea but that's the only thing that makes sense to my layman's eyes.

Any other ideas of whats going on there?

V-22 forward firing vid...

Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey Demonstrates Forward-Firing Capability

Thanks for the link William!

via Aviation Today.

The Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey successfully demonstrated its forward-firing capability at the United States Army Proving Ground in Yuma, Ariz. Initial design work for the forward fire capability began in mid-2013.

Thor's Hammer exercise....

via Raytheon Press Release.

VIDSEL TEST RANGE, Sweden, Dec. 8, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Armed forces from Norway,Finland, Switzerland and Turkey successfully fired five Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN)-builtAdvanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) AIM-120C7s as part of the Thor's Hammer flight test campaign in September.
Launched from F-16 and F/A-18 fighter aircraft and the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) ground launchers, the missiles achieved five successful shots on a variety of profiles and targets. Norway shot one AIM-120C7 from a NASAMS High Mobility Launcher andFinland shot two from a NASAMS canister launcher, while Switzerland successfully fired one from an F-18 and Turkey fired one from an F-16.

"AMRAAM is the world's most advanced air dominance weapon, and these successful tests once again demonstrate the missile's extraordinary level of effectiveness and reliability," said Mike Jarrett, vice president of Raytheon's Air Warfare Systems. "Intercepting all five targets from different platforms showcased AMRAAM's versatility across different scenarios for U.S. and allied forces worldwide."
Named for the hammer-wielding god in Norse mythology, the month-long Thor's Hammer exercise marks the completion of developmental testing for the AIM-120C7.

120C7 is just completing development test?  Just wow.  I thought that we were already well on our way to putting into service the "D" model.  Don't get me wrong, I realize that the C7 will have many of the features of the D but I was under the impression that it would give us much longer range (approaching that of the long dead Phoenix missile) with higher kill probability.

AMV 8X8 Armoured Modular Vehicle

Hmm, Patria seems to be increasing their advertising of the AMV 8x8 and they're really pushing the "family of vehicle" concept.  Did you notice a few images of the vehicle undergoing testing by the USMC?

Question.  Why is internal storage of gear by attached infantry such a big deal?  If the vehicle is hit or sinks while swimming, its more stuff to try and get out of the way before you can cleanly exit and it requires the vehicle to be a bit larger than it has to be.  If anything build some racks to store the rucksacks or simply provide tie down points.