Modern day "Game of Thrones"...Keep an eye on Saudi Arabia...

via Jerusalem Online.

According the the Egyptian Television network "El-Nha'r, the Saudi king will announce in the next few minutes that he is giving up his crown.
King Abdullah (90) has been hospitalized for several days in the hospital in the Saudi capital city Riyadh. According to reports, specialists from the United States arrived at the hospital in Saudi Arabia to address his needs. King Abdullah, or by his full name - Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz Al-Saud, is the sixth King of Saudi Arabia.
According to the publication, In March of last year, Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz was named deputy Crown Prince and is therefore second-in-line to the throne.

The second in line will continue current policies.

That isn't what should have your attention.  Its the game behind the scenes. If there is a power struggle and if the current "regime" loses to an upstart then everything is on the table.  Relations with the US and Israel, the Syria Conflict, the conflict in Iraq with ISIS, the US pullout from Afghanistan and even world oil prices could all hinge on palace intrigue.

Keep an eye on Saudi Arabia.  It could affect your world.

Did the Ukrainian President signal more fighting?

via Interfax.

Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko has transferred more than 100 items of modernized military equipment, including armored vehicles, aircraft and weapon systems, to the country's army.
During the handover, which took place on Monday at a military range in Zhytomyr region, the president said that this was the third time in a month that the government has transferred armored vehicles, tanks, infantry fighting vehicle, howitzers, mortars, aircraft and other equipment to the military.
"I believe that 2015 will be a year of our victories and a year of peace. To achieve this we should have a strong, well-trained, and well-equipped patriotic Ukrainian army," Poroshenko said.
The president presented vouchers for 203-mm and 121-mm self-propelled howitzer complexes, 82-mm automatic grenade launchers, assault rifles "Fort", two MiG-29 and two Su-27 aircraft, and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle. "For the first time in many years, we hand over modernized aircraft to the Armed Forces of Ukraine," he said.
Poroshenko thanked employees of Zhytomyr Armored Plant, Kharkiv Automobile Repair Plant Shepetivka Repair Plant, and the Fort Research and Production Association for the repair and reconstruction of equipment.

That quote stood out to me.

"I believe that 2015 will be a year of our victories and a year of peace. To achieve this we should have a strong, well-trained, and well-equipped patriotic Ukrainian army,"

I'm not sure how careful his speech writers are but the need to emphasize victories as well as peace stood out for me.  It obviously stood out for the Interfax reporter as well.

Despite public statements by US and EU officials, it seems like the Ukrainian President is expecting continued fighting.

Active Duty Marine Captain unloads on the DoD, HQMC and the Defense Industrial Complex!

via The Atlantic (note, this is a letter to the editor his identity for good reason was withheld).

I have personally experienced nearly being killed by the excesses of the collusion between industry and the military, a la the V-22 Osprey. I was forced to use this platform despite its limitations in theater, and due to various reasons I can't discuss, I feel it was responsible for nearly getting myself and my men killed. Yet, top brass shoves down the throats of career-minded subordinate commanders that it is a sound platform, with dog and pony shows put on toward "proving" that.

&

Why would the Marine Corps need a VTOL (Verticle Take-Off and Landing) F-35 variant? To replace an aging Harrier as a close air support platform is the official line. The real reason why is the protect the Marine Corps' raison d'etre; amphibious warfare, also largely an anachronism - a divorce from the Navy and its carrier fleet with platforms that can provide the same capabilities (the F-18). The result is an engineering dud if you are talking 5th generation air war against a near-peer. This bureaucratic infighting with expensive consequences is repeated many times over with all sorts of major and minor end systems.

Go to the Atlantic to read the entire article (its discussing the F-35), but get past the controversial airplane and get a feel for the sentiment.

I told ya so.

Service members are pissed!  They're seeing waste, abuse, corruption and a weakening of America's defenses.  Each and everyone has a different solution to the problem.  Some say to keep the course.  Others like the Marine Captain want to tear the entire house down.

If I was advising General Dunford, our current Commandant, the first thing I would tell him is that HE MUST rebuild trust between the leaders and the led. The strain of what everyone sees as a war without end is starting to show.  The cracks have been there but unnoticed by many.  I fear we're about to see an eruption unless action is taken...and quickly. 

You would think we're under biological attack

via NBC News.

An American health worker who experienced a high-risk exposure to the Ebola virus while in Sierra Leone is being sent to a Nebraska hospital for observation and possible treatment, hospital officials announced Saturday.
"This patient has been exposed to the virus but is not ill and is not contagious," said Phil Smith, medical director of the Biocontainment Unit at Nebraska Medicine in Omaha. "However, we will be taking all appropriate precautions. This patient will be under observation in the same room used for treatment of the first three patients and will be carefully monitored to see if Ebola disease develops."

I had a sudden epiphany.

Most of the United States is suffering an "influenza epidemic".  How would you tell the difference between someone in the early stages of Ebola and some poor soul that has the flu?

Also remember that 1200 people were being monitored for Ebola within our borders just a couple of weeks ago.

If I didn't know better I would think we're under biological attack.  Ebola, Enterovirus D68 and now a flu so severe that its killed a healthy, active 3 year old girl. 

To answer your question, no, I don't think this is an attack.

I do think it points out how frail modern medicine actually is.  We might be better at healing broken bones and dealing with illness in normally healthy people, but when nature throws a wrinkle into our plans (like when they guess wrong on the flu virus that will hit) we're helpless.

GE Aviation makes its move to smash P&W.

Thanks for the link William.



Yeah.

The fight has begun.  News has it that the Republicans are looking to make deficit reduction and no "missteps" their agenda this year.  That means sequestration might be eased but it will not go away.

The Navy will get upgrades to existing gear alot easier than buying new stuff.  The Advanced Super Hornet looks more and more likely.  We might not see the complete package but engines, maybe the fuel tanks and a few enclosed weapon pods here and there....it'll get done, but it'll be on the sly.

Note:  Republican policy planning for the next year is outlined in this AP news story.  Observe the lack of focus on boosting defense spending.  I expect defense hawks like McCain and Graham to raise a ruckus but for nothing to be done.  The focus on the deficit will calm the Tea Party while most issues and programs unchanged.  Relief for the defense industry/budget will come with the next President...if it comes at all.

F-35 News. Turkey moves toward an "enhanced" LHD.

Hat tip to Christian Thiels for the link.

via deutsch-tuerkische-zeitung.de

Turkey wants to build its own aircraft carrier. This was decided on Tuesday in Ankara, the National Security Council at the last meeting. In the, under the chairmanship of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan held meeting of the National Security Council, a far-reaching military decision was made. Turkey wants to 2019 the first aircraft carrier homemade handed over to the Navy's inventory. The spa located already in active planning dock landing with a helicopter platform (LPD), will now be built as an aircraft carrier with a plan revision. The military dock landing with a helicopter platform was initially intended for the transport and the use of occupation, amphibious vehicles, and helicopters operating Turkish naval units. Now, should by installing a tilting by 12 percent starting ramp (ski-jump method) built the LPD ship as an aircraft carrier. The ski-jump method allows aircraft, with only half the normal starting Bahnes to withdraw. On the ship, the new combat aircraft of the type F-35 will be deployed. This gives the Turkish navy first opportunity with a crew of 700 soldiers in global crisis areas to operate independently. With a fully equipped hospital in the aircraft carrier and its use in natural disaster areas should be possible. 

It happened again.

The Marine Corps started a meme (one that I often parroted) and its eventually going to bite the naval services in the ass.

Have you noticed that the term "aircraft carrier" is being dumbed down?

Instead of Turkey building a big deck LHA/LHD (by US terminology) they're building an aircraft carrier?

On a separate note, this could have ramifications for the F-35 program.  What happens if the Turks move from buying A's to B's?  If they split their current order?  I have no idea what that would do to the price.  I seriously doubt that they would increase their buy though.  This is another project that bears watching.

Prediction. Russia won't buy Mistrals, they'll buy Chinese.

Prediction.  Russian will turn to the Chinese to get themselves a world class LHD.

What does that mean for our allies and especially scrappy little Georgia? 

They're going to be facing ships that will be far more capable. The size of the attached air wing will almost double over that of the Mistral.  The same with the number of troops carried.

If I'm right China & Russia become even more intertwined, the desire to prevent improvements to the Russian Navy fail completely, the Russians still get modern shipbuilding techniques (the Chinese industry is every bit as good as the French) and since the Chinese have probably hacked the French as completely as they've hacked us...the Russians still get tech transfers.

The only question is what will China demand in payment?

Update:  Naval Requirements Blog tells me that the tech transfer has already been completed and pointed me to this article.  Personally I still have my doubts.  The Russians are still pushing hard on this and while claims are made of being able to build Mistrals we haven't seen any move to do so.  I remain in a wait and see mode.

Northrop YA-9 concept art

Leadership Lessons and Remembrances from Vietnam...

  Leadership Lessons and Remembrances From Vietnam PCN 19000413000

Take out the word "Vietnam" and replace it with "Afghanistan and Iraq" and you would be hard pressed to know the difference if you had no knowledge of military history.

Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement: and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it...George Santayana

A bad gun law that will have terrible consequences.

I haven't talked about PTSD on these pages.

Its outside my wheelhouse and its such a touchy subject that I didn't want to go there.  But this is different. Check this out from SHTFPlan.

Gun confiscation at the hands of medical records sharing is now officially a reality, with serious consequences for the individuals involved.
Now, under ObamaCare, the United States is on pace to swiftly become a snitch society that would make East Germany and Soviet Russia blush.
One former Navy man and 30-year police force veteran is suing the relevant authorities in New York after four of his legally registered firearms were confiscated as a result of his seeking voluntary treatment for insomnia.
Despite the fact that he has no criminal record, was diagnosed with only “mild depression” and his record explicitly noted that there was no concern for violence, the man was listed as a “mental defective.” And thanks to New York’s “SAFE Act” for Secure Ammunition and Firearms Enforcement Act of 2013, his weapons were seizedby the local sheriff’s office after his records were shared and New York State Police made repeated requests for confiscation...

This ain't gonna work.

Talk to a retired, former or active duty Marine.  Tell someone that if they're having mental problems that they should seek help...then tell them that if they do they're going to lose their gun rights.

The result is going to be that many people that should seek help won't.

Maybe they can fix the law but if the real effort was to cut down on the number of people seeking treatment then I think they're on to something. Once word of this gets out no one will ever trust doctors again.  

SOCOM attempted to rescue "downed" Jordanian pilot...

via Jerusalem Online.

Rebel sources in Syria claim that American commandos tried to rescue the Jordanian pilot that was captured by IS last week, according to a Turkish news report in El Andalul.

According to the report, Jordanian pilot Muaz Yossef El Kasasba was hidden in a private house in El Raqqa, an IS stronghold. The rebel sources claim that US battle planes and their allies carried out diversion bombings on IS targets in the area in order to permit two US commando helicopters to enter the area.
Few details are known so far. There is no further confirmation from any other source. The helicopter tried to land in a private home in El Raqqa, but upon coming under heavy fire, was forced to leave the area. The failed rescue attempt increases the risk to the life of the Jordanian pilot.

I've held fire on this one but a few things just didn't seem to make sense to me.  By all accounts the allied forces are flying to high for ISIS to touch them and Syrian Air Defenses are cooperating fully.

Additionally we heard no reports that the pilot's plane suffered mechanical problems.  The Jordanian Defense Ministry has been extremely closed mouth about the circumstances behind the crash too.

Which make me wonder if the guy didn't defect/sympathize/give himself over to ISIS....but lets put aside suspicion and assume its a legit situation and he merits rescuing.

I wonder...don't hate me I'm just being honest.  How much harder would SOCOM have pushed if it was one of our own?  Not busting sunshine off the 160th's behind (if they did the mission) but they have a reputation for flying through steel rain to get the job done.  I have real trouble thinking that small arms fire would turn them around.

Regardless, CENTCOM needs to shed a little light on this one.  The lack of information is raising my suspicions.  IF a Jordanian pilot defected to ISIS then we have a force protection problem.  How many others that are feeding our troops, washing their clothes, performing maintenance at bases they're staying at are also compromised?

NOTE:  Personal pat on the back for the timeliness of yesterdays post about the price paid to "leave no man behind".  Good job me.

A little interpretive dance for you...WATCH IT BEFORE YOU DISS IT!

Thanks to Joe for the vid...



You say interpretive dance and I say eat shit and die.

I was wrong.

Check out this dance group from Hungary that performed on "Britain's got talent".  They got me awhile ago with the sad sack that could sing his ass off.  They got me again with a bunch of new age hippies that could tell a story by way of dance.

At what point does "leave no man behind" come at too high a price?

The US military takes pride in the "leave no man behind" concept.  Its a promise to each servicemember that all efforts will be made to save you if possible.

At what point does it become too high a price?  Before you answer reflexively that its a point of honor and everything must be done, consider this passage from an Army War College Case Study of the Bat 21 incident by Lt Col Stanley Busboom, United States Air Force (this is a cached page, its easily accessed online though).

When SAMs struck the Bat 21 EB-66, five men were lost; that is a sunk cost that precedes all others in this story.2 On the same day, a UH-1H making a rescue attempt was gunned down with the loss of four lives.  Two OV-10s went down to SAMs with two creymimbers lost, a third becoming a POW, the fourth escaping.4 Six more lives (five cremen and a combat photographer) were lost when the Jolly Green rescue chopper went down on the rescue attempt. There is no single authoritative source that accounts for all of these men together, or suggests other losses in Sandys or strike
aircraft that flew on supporting missions. If the foregoing compilation is accepted, at least 17 combat deaths are relevant to the Bat 21 story.  From one perspective, the loss of these aviators may be the least problematic of the analysis. All were flying combat missions and were well  aware of the risks involved in the line of duty. On the other hand, it is possible to argue that the UH-1H crew was not on a properly planned mission
and was unduly put in harm's way. Similarly, the Jolly Green crew was sent in through withering fire--but then there was also a communication error in that sequence of events.

Thats the losses from the air side of the house.  Check this out from Wikipedia... 

Maj. David A. Brookbank, a U.S. Air Force liaison with the 3rd Division, reported, "The operation cost the 3rd ARVN dearly." He concluded that the restriction gave the North Vietnamese "an opportunity unprecedented in the annals of warfare to advance at will." He stated, "It seems logical to assume that many South Vietnamese troops died because air and artillery support were not available."[3]:120 He warned his superiors that the 3rd Division's officers resented the fact that the 7th Air Force would put thousands of South Vietnamese soldiers' lives at risk to rescue one of their own.[18]:318
American response to the NVA operation virtually ground to a halt[16]:251 as air resources were diverted to support the recovery, and for a few days defense of the northern border area was second in priority to rescuing Hambleton.[18]:318

One man went down and at least 17 other fliers died to recover him.  It doesn't count the heavy losses that the ARVN suffered because they were denied air, sea and artillery fire support.

Was it worth it?

Did the "leave no man behind" concept come at too high a price?

This question has particular importance to the USMC.  Tactical Recovery of Aircraft and Personnel is a hallmark mission of the Marine Expeditionary Unit.  The O'Grady Rescue and the recovery of the downed F-15 pilots in Libya were successful.  But we were lucky.  Mechanical problems, a stray bullet or a lucky RPG shot could knock down a helo and suddenly you have a squad of Marines along with the pilots they sought to rescue becoming bait for a meeting engagement no one saw coming.  In the future, at what point does it become a case of cutting losses and accepting the capture and/or public beheading of US personnel?  Or do we accept any losses to get back one or two pilots that went down in bad guy land?  I just don't know.

Armored Brigade Combat Team to Eastern Europe. Allied protection or provocation?

via Press TV.

The United States has once again threatened Russian President Vladimir with deploying more than 150 tanks and armored vehicles in Europe.
Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges, commander of the US Army in Europe, said the Pentagon planned to deploy the tanks and vehicles by the end of 2015.
They could be placed in Poland, Romania or the Baltic states, the military commander told Reuters.
"By the end of... 2015, we will have gotten all the equipment for a heavy brigade, that means three battalions plus a reconnaissance squadron, the artillery headquarters, engineers, and it will stay in Europe," Hodges said.
Last month, the Pentagon threatened Russia with redeploying nuclear cruise missiles to Europe, accusing Moscow of violating two arms control treaties.
Washington said Moscow violated the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.
However, Russia denied the allegation and said the testing of a ground-launched cruise missile in July 2014 was in compliance with the INF treaty.
Hodges said the United States currently has about 30,000 troops in Europe plus a similar number of Air Force, Navy and Marine personnel.
He added that the US military would keep the forces in the continent despite budgetary pressures in the country.
The US and its allies accuse Russia of sponsoring military activities in Ukraine. The Kremlin has firmly rejected the accusations.

This article is laced with inaccuracies but it points to something important none-the-less.  US intentions and actions are either being misread or misrepresented.

From our perspective we're reassuring allies.

From the Russian view we're being provocative.

Happy 2015.  Its going to be a rough ride.

Lockheed Martin Propaganda Video.

Note:  They have not responded to Dave's excellent reporting on the issues with this airplane.  The heat is on.  Ms. Martin needs to get her affairs in order.  I'm sure she'll be a target in the investigation into one of the biggest frauds in defense procurement history.  Have you observed that we're seeing less of LM's President when it comes to making announcements about the plane?  Ms. Hewson has outstanding survival instincts!

F-35 News. The plane will be declared IOC but its gun won't work? Is Marine Air going rogue?

Consider.

Every announcement from HQMC and think tanks lauds nothing but praise on two platforms...the F-35B and the MV-22.

Long gone are the days where the Marine and his rifle was the focus of HQMC and those that seek to give advice/counsel.

How is this showing up?

You spend money on whats important.  You jettison anything you think is redundant or a waste...this applies double when times are tough.  During these tough times what is the Marine Corps shedding?  Infantry Battalions, Artillery, Tanks, Tracks and various support units.

What is increasing?

Marine Air.

But wait.  It gets worse.

The F-35B is going to be declared operational and not only is the software a mess but not even the gun will be operational.  Check this out from the Daily Beast.

The Pentagon’s newest stealth jet, the nearly $400 billion Joint Strike Fighter, won’t be able to fire its gun during operational missions until 2019, three to four years after it becomes operational.
Even though the Joint Strike Fighter, or F-35, is supposed to join frontline U.S. Marine Corps fighter squadrons next year and Air Force units in 2016, the jet’s software does not yet have the ability to shoot its 25mm cannon. But even when the jet will be able to shoot its gun, the F-35 barely carries enough ammunition to make the weapon useful.
The JSF won’t be completely unarmed. It will still carry a pair of Raytheon AIM-120 AMRAAM long-range air-to-air missiles and a pair of bombs. Initially, it will be able to carry 1,000-pound satellite-guided bombs or 500-pound laser-guided weapons. But those weapons are of limited utility, especially during close-in fights.
“There will be no gun until [the Joint Strike Fighter’s Block] 3F [software], there is no software to support it now or for the next four-ish years,” said one Air Force official affiliated with the F-35 program. “Block 3F is slated for release in 2019, but who knows how much that will slip?”

So having said all of the above the question must be asked.  Is Marine Air going rogue?

Once Marine Air was considered the keepers of the flame when it came to providing close air support. 

Now?

They are talking about retiring early (even though NAVAIR says that it can be kept in frontline service til 2030..at least) the AV-8B Harrier...a plane that is proven, can provide the support that the GROUND COMBAT ELEMENT needs but isn't exactly designed to be part of the air sea battle doctrine that the USN and USAF are working on. 

Is Marine Air attempting to not only break away from the ground side of the house but while doing so remake the Marine Corps in its image?

Polish Army in action.

NOTE:  I think these are Polish Forces.  The website is here...great photos, but Google Translate took a dump and isn't working.

Marine Air is breaking the Corps.

pic via Business Insider.

The graph is so simple and easy to understand that there will be no response from my critics.

Marine Air is breaking the Marine Corps because its toys are so expensive they can't be afforded...and real questions must be asked about whether they deliver what was/is being promised.

The situation will not improve with the introduction of the F-35 either.

Choices must be made now.  Either the Marine Corps remains a balanced Air Ground Task Force or it becomes an Air Force with attached security forces.

What Dunford decides to do in the next few months will determine the future of the Corps.

Great full body workout...pic by Cpl. Jeraco Jenkins

U.S. Marines with Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force Crisis Response – Africa, are guided by a Spanish Army mountaineer with 1st Mountain Troops Command, on a hike during mountain warfare training in Candanchu, Spain, Dec. 16, 2014.

That's a great full body workout...

You build up a tremendous amount of sweat...

You're hardly thirsty and have to force yourself to drink water....

And if you're sleeping outside you're going to freeze your ass off!

Mountain Warfare Training Center, pic by Sgt. Emmanuel Ramos

Lance Cpl. Julio C. Miranda Jr. rappels down a cliff during Mountain Exercise 2014 aboard Marine Corps Mountain Warfare Training Center in Bridgeport, Calif., Aug. 29, 2014. Miranda is an infantry rifleman with 3rd Platoon, Lima Company, 3rd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment. Marines with 3rd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment will become the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit’s ground combat element in October. Mountain Exercise 2014 develops critical skills the battalion will need during deployment.