Speer G2 Gold Dot totally underperforms...

If you're not into TNT Outdoors 9 then you're missing out.  The guy takes the time to do real world test with production ammo.

After seeing this I'll still roll with my Hornady Critical Defense.

The USMC armored vehicle crisis.

First check this out from Olive Drab.

The history of the LVTP7/AAV7 may be summarized as follows:

• 1972 - 1975 LVT7 Fielded. Most common variant was the LVTP7.
• 1983 - 1986 LVT7A1 Service Life Extension Program (SLEP)
• 1987 Redesignated AAV7A1 to better reflect mission
• 1987 - 1999 Product Improvement Program (PIP) - Upgrade Lethality, Survivability and Communications
• 1999 – 2003 AAV7A1 Vehicle Reliability, Availability and Maintainability/Rebuild to Standard Program (RAM/RS)

Why is this quick and dirty rundown of the AAV important?  Simple!  It shows the date of service entry for the AAV, highlights the various name changes that have been used to paper over the replacement issue and perfectly illustrates the danger that future Marines are being placed in by having a vehicle that has a projected service life of....58 years!

Yeah you read that right.  The United States Marine Corps is planning on keeping the Amphibious Assault Vehicle in service for 58 years.

Consider.  This is the same as asking a Marine Tanker to drive a Sherman into combat during the 1st Gulf War!

The F-35 has destroyed the Marine Corps' budget and appears to be well on its way to destroying the institution itself.  This is no longer bothersome.

The USMC has an armored vehicle crisis.

SIDENOTE:  This may all become irrelevant.  I can't imagine the vehicles even being road worthy much less combat ready for much longer.  Even if the replacement ACV is delivered on time there will be at least a 5 year gap (by my estimation) of the Marine Corps NOT having armored protection for its infantry forces...at least 5 years and probably longer.

Getting ready for the Amphibious Combat Vehicle RFP? Bullshit. The plan is worthless.

via Marines.mil

Within the next two months, the Marine Corps is expected to release a Request for Proposal to industry, marking a major milestone on the path to fielding the first phase of the ACV program.
According to Kevin McConnell, deputy director, Fire and Maneuver Integration Division, Headquarters Marine Corps, Combat Development and Integration, “The Marine Corps plans to select two vendors during the fall of 2016 to build prototypes for a 30-month competitive Engineering and Manufacturing Development phase leading to the eventual selection of a single vendor to build enough vehicles to outfit two companies in the Corps’ assault amphibian battalions.”
The first ACV, 392 upgraded AAVs and the LCAC Replacement (ship-to-shore connector) are all scheduled to hit the operating forces in 2020.
It has taken several years to get here. Since the late 1970s, there have been numerous attempts to develop a high-water, speed-capable replacement for the AAV. However, technical complexity and overall affordability have caused each effort to be cancelled. Still, according to the recently released 36th Commandant’s Planning Guidance, the Marine Corps “will continue to prioritize the fielding of a self-deploying, high-speed amphibious combat vehicle that will meet our requirements for the future even as we implement the first phase of the current Amphibious Combat Vehicle Program.”
The approach to ACV is different. The ACV will leverage advancements in technology by the worldwide armored personnel carrier industry to more rapidly deliver a needed capability without the risks associated with designing a new vehicle from scratch.
“At this point, we don’t intend to spend Marine Corps money or time developing new technology for the ACV. There is existing technology already out there,” McConnell said. “We intend to capitalize on those existing technologies and expect industry to deliver a robust and affordable capability that best meets our specific needs.”

I thought the USMC had a plan to get a replacement for the AAV into service with a bit of quickness.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

NOTE CAREFULLY THE PHRASING OF THE OPERATIVE SENTENCE...

The first ACV, 392 upgraded AAVs and the LCAC Replacement (ship-to-shore connector) are all scheduled to hit the operating forces in 2020.

That would lead you to believe that the ACV will quickly be entering service right?  Now check out the below image...

Click on the image to expand it.  The AAV upgrade will begin in 2019.  The ACV will be fully fielded in 2028 (by the current plan).  So we're back to where we were.  The AAV will serve till 2030 and beyond.  That is if we don't see the ACV program outright killed before then.  Even if it survives it will be almost useless. Why?  Because it will be obsolete before it even enters service!  Additionally we're looking at less than 500 vehicles and its going to take over a decade to produce them?

This plan is bullshit.

I had high hopes for Dunford but confidence is fading fast.  I don't know the game that is being played but this is borderline deceitful.  Its time for the Commandant to have a come to Jesus moment and get real, honest and factual with regard to the ACV program.

What is the problem?  Is it the budget?  Doctrine?  Is it believed that a new AAV isn't needed?

Something is broken in Marine Corps procurement. If Dunford can't fix it then he needs to tell us what the problem is.

German Armor on exercise (pics)

Quote of the day.

...[ISIS] screwed with the wrong King. He's gonna light 'em up. He's going to -- knowing him and the way he thinks and operates -- it is going to be a take no prisoners approach, and all ISIS has done is put the king in a better position to use his power to go after him.  Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe Television Show. 

You can watch the round table discussion here.

Don't you wish that could be said of the US President after the first American was beheaded?  The United States isn't weak.  It's leader is, but our nation isn't.

Two wars that aren't really insurgencies.

Question.

When does an insurgency morph into something different?  When does the number of separatists, insurgents, terrorist, rebels etc...go from being a mob, dead-enders etc...to becoming an army in the field?

One thing we aren't seeing is 4th generation warfare.  Check this out from Wikipedia...

Fourth generation warfare is defined as conflicts which involve the following elements:

• Are complex and long term

• Terrorism (tactic)

• A non-national or transnational base –highly decentralized

• A direct attack on the enemy's culture, including genocidal acts against civilians.

• Highly sophisticated psychological warfare, especially through media manipulation and lawfare

Think about it.

1.  ISIS and the separatists almost equal the number of state forces they're facing.
2.  ISIS and the separatists have demonstrated that they're able to support and equip their fighters in the field.
3.  They have been able to buy or steal weapons that place them on an equal footing with state forces.
4.  They are engaging in stand up fights against state forces and AREN'T employing classic insurgent tactics.

We aren't seeing classic insurgencies.  This is something new.

Ideological armies that assemble with enough power to fight state forces?  That is shocking.  If this is heralding a new form of warfare then peace as we know it is out the window.  These types of peoples movements/armies can gather and unless killed in the crib morph into something that will require coalition power to put out.

Non-state armies, with sophisticated weapons capable of matching small nation forces in the field is a recipe for chaos.

These two wars aren't really insurgencies.  They're something else and that should concern us all.

X-37 (Orbital Test Vehicle). What is it for?

In a short conversation with ShockWave Lover he brought up the old anti-sat system that was launched by the F-15 way back during the Star Wars days.  The program was canned but I suspect that it simply went classified and continues to this day.

But when you add what was done back then with the new Darpa project, which I believe is simply an attempt to utilize the work that was done in a classified setting and bring into the light, its obvious to me that we have our bases covered when it comes to space warfare.

We can quickly launch replacement sats that are knocked down by threat nations and we have the ability to take their sats out.

Which leads me to the X-37.

If I'm right then that just adds to the confusion surrounding that space plane.  Exactly what is it for?  What is its mission?  It has endurance, its reusable and its maneuverable in space.

Is it part of the US space warfare plans or is it actually just a test vehicle?

This is the one project that we don't talk about that should be front and center..especially to you aviation/space buffs.

Death Spiral. US Navy takes out the fork for the F-35.

Stick a fork in it.

A common saying that everyone uses.  It usually signals that the gig is up, the game is over, the turkey is cooked....

In the case of the F-35, it means that the death spiral is officially here.  via Aviation Week.

The U.S. Navy has reduced its planned buys of the Lockheed Martin F-35C Joint Strike Fighter by almost one-third over the fiscal 2016-2020 Future Years Defense Program (FYDP), while committing almost $800 million to new standoff weapon developments and canceling the only missile program that was primarily dedicated to the F-35C. All the new developments are part of the fiscal 2016 presidential budget proposal and constitute the first move by a U.S. service to slow down its JSF procurements.
This year’s budget buys four F-35Cs, including two added late in 2014 by the lame-duck Congress. The Navy now plans to buy another four aircraft each in FY2016 and 2017. The rate ramps up slowly in the final three years of the FYDP, peaking at 12 aircraft in FY2020 and buying 38 F-35Cs in the plan period. The FYDP includes 83 F-35Bs for theMarine Corps, unchanged from earlier years.
Under 2015 plans the Navy would have bought 54 F-35Cs in the FY16-20, with F-35C production reaching 20 per year in 2020. 19. The JSF Program Office states that “the Navy’s commitment to the program remains strong” and that it expects the Navy’s cutbacks to be offset by international JSF procurements.”

The program office said what I never thought I would ever hear.

"...the Navy's cutbacks..."

That should send chills down the spines of this airplanes supporters.  Long story short?  I was right, you were wrong.  The death spiral is here and the Navy's commitment might be strong in word but not in budget.

China Defense Blog: The Sino-Russian 20+ ton Heavy-lift Helicopter Project...

China Defense Blog: The Sino-Russian 20+ ton Heavy-lift Helicopter Project.. 　

BEIJING, January 21 (ChinaMil) –During the Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, an all-red Russian-made M-26 helicopter, the largest helicopter in the world, was frequently seen on TV. It lifted a large number of badly-needed goods and materials to the disaster-hit areas, impressing the public.
　　However, there were only two M-26 helicopters in China at that time, and they were the only helicopters that were able to lift those lifesaving heavy-duty machines.
　　The pain of Wenchuan is also the pain of the helicopter industry in China. After that, China began to speed up the development of heavy helicopters, and China and Russia's joint development of heavy helicopters has become a hot spot.
　　An insider from the military industry system of Russia said in an interview that the heavy helicopter being jointly developed by China and Russia is slightly smaller than the M-26 helicopter. With China's needs taken into full consideration, it is usable at high altitude, reported Interfax, the Russian news agency.
　 　With the help of Russia who possesses strong technical strength in helicopters, this advanced heavy helicopter tailor-made for China is taking shape.
　　In as early as 2010, Andrei Shibitov, Chief Executive Officer of the Russian Helicopters, declared at a news conference that Russia and China would jointly develop 30-35 tonnage helicopters.

Interesting.

I remember those articles about a 33 ton helicopter being built jointly.  Here's one for those that don't.

For military applications I think we've seen the upper limits of helicopter size.  I wasn't sure about the civilian limits until this news.  So we have it.  C-130 sized helicopters are as big as is practical.  Good to know.

Humanitarian corridor for Debaltsevo civilians & potential blowback from arming Ukraine.

Meet the next flashpoint for the fighting in Ukraine.

Debaltsevo.

Many readers have been commenting on it, and I've watched as they've put up links and talked about the situation but I wasn't sure if this was actually shaping up as a real fight or just a sideshow to the fighting at the airport.

Real fight it is.  Check this out via RT.

A ceasefire starting from 9 am local time (0600 GMT) on February 6 has been suggested by the Donetsk militia, in order to provide a corridor so that civilians in Debaltsevo can leave the conflict area. Kiev has reportedly agreed to hold fire.
The proposal for the local ceasefire was initiated by the militia, the Donetsk defense ministry representative Eduard Basurin announced on Thursday. The corridor should give people caught in the fighting in and around the town of Debaltsevo the chance to flee the area, Basurin said.
Kiev's military officials have confirmed their agreement to the ceasefire, according to Basurin.
Debaltsevo residents will have a choice of which safer area to head to, the DNR representative at the Minsk talks, Denis Pushilin, told Russia’s Rossiya 24 news channel. He said that people can choose between areas controlled either by Kiev or the militia, to be evacuated to the towns of Artyomovsk or Donetsk respectively.
The announcement of plans for the localized ceasefire came during a series of international meetings aimed at working on devising a solution for the increasing fighting in eastern Ukraine.
The US Secretary of State John Kerry visited the Ukrainian capital on Thursday following Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko’s pleas for the US to supply arms to Kiev.

Then we have this from the NATO Chief on the possibility of arming Ukraine via CBS News...

BRUSSELS -- The top NATO commander warned Thursday that any move to provide Ukraine with lethal defensive weapons must take into account any possible angry reaction from Russia.
U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove said that any action the U.S. or other Western nations take "could trigger a more strident reaction from Russia."

This thing in Ukraine is turning into a complete clusterfuck.

I thought that winter time would be the opportunity to sort this mess out and reach some type of peace.  That time is rapidly passing.  We could see warfare last another two or three years.

5.6% Unemployment. The big lie.

Major hat tip to offgridsurvival blog.

via Gallup.com

The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.
And it's a lie that has consequences, because the great American dream is to have a good job, and in recent years, America has failed to deliver that dream more than it has at any time in recent memory. A good job is an individual's primary identity, their very self-worth, their dignity -- it establishes the relationship they have with their friends, community and country. When we fail to deliver a good job that fits a citizen's talents, training and experience, we are failing the great American dream.
Gallup defines a good job as 30+ hours per week for an organization that provides a regular paycheck. Right now, the U.S. is delivering at a staggeringly low rate of 44%, which is the number of full-time jobs as a percent of the adult population, 18 years and older. We need that to be 50% and a bare minimum of 10 million new, good jobs to replenish America's middle class.
I hear all the time that "unemployment is greatly reduced, but the people aren't feeling it." When the media, talking heads, the White House and Wall Street start reporting the truth -- the percent of Americans in good jobs; jobs that are full time and real -- then we will quit wondering why Americans aren't "feeling" something that doesn't remotely reflect the reality in their lives. And we will also quit wondering what hollowed out the middle class.

This is what so irks me about the political, government and economic specialist in the United States.  I'm sitting in my chair and I know this.

Why don't the so called best and brightest?

Simple.  They want the public to continue acting as if all is well instead of preparing for the worst.

Ukrainian News. Separatist armor is taking a tremendous beating.

Major hat tip to George for the link!


The separatist are taking a beating if this video is to be believed. I'm still lost in the woods on this one and have no idea where this thing will go. We live in very interesting times. Historians will have a field day with the current President's leadership...as well as that of the EU. SIDENOTE:  Is there a Russian speaker in the house that can give us a basic rundown (don't need word for word) of whats being said in the video?

ALASA Concept Video

Major Hat Tip to ELP Blog for the link!

Navy Matters Blog take on the Next Gen Fighter.

Have you noticed how enthusiastic the CNO seems to be when talking about the next gen fighter vs his talks about the F-35?

In my opinion the US Navy is looking past that plane to whats next.  Regardless Navy Matters has a great take on the issue and you can read it here.

USMC Winter Mountain Leaders Course. Photos by Cpl. Charles Santamaria

Kasal takes over as 1st MEF's SgtMajor.

Ok.  This makes sense.  Kasal is definitely being groomed to become the next SMMC and this is probably the last box that needs to be checked off.

1st MEF is in good hands, with Berger and Kasal at the helm they'll be ready for any challenges that pop up over the next couple of years.  Read the story here.

JGSDF practices small boat raids with 1st Recon Bn. Photos by Cpl. Angel Serna

Is it just me or does it seem like the Japanese are really pushing small boat handling and raids in their joint training with the USMC?

What has me curious is that it doesn't fit with the published accounts of how they're going to defend the disputed islands from Chinese attacks and points toward a more offensive role for their forces in the future.

Sidenote:  I would love to know which JGSDF unit participated in this training.  That would provide a bit more visibility on their intentions.

China selling Argentina "export" Type 056 Corvette.

via MercoPress

Argentine reports indicate the agreement to be signed in Beijing could cover co-production in Argentina of the Norinco VN1 wheeled armored personnel carrier (APC) and co-operation in building a new ice-breaker, naval tugboats, mobile hospitals, and new warships for the Argentine Navy.
In late 2014 the Argentine government reportedly accepted a Chinese offer to meet its long-standing requirement for a new class of offshore patrol vessel. Over the last decade Argentina has considered purchasing designs from Brazil, Germany, and Spain, but China has reportedly succeeded in selling a more capable warship: a version of the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation's (CSIC) P18 export corvette.
Somewhat controversially, this vessel will be known as the Malvinas class, after the Argentine name for the Falkland Islands. Two P18N corvettes were sold to Nigeria in 2012 for 42 million dollars each. The 'Malvinas class' version is in the range of 50 million dollars.

The operative words here are "Chinese offer".

The interaction between China and Argentina bears watching...especially if you're British and have an interest in military affairs.

Bladed ground testing of the S-97 RAIDER helicopter

F-35 News. The quote of the day...

“The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter was originally estimated to cost around $220 billion to research, engineer, and build 2,800 planes. Now we are going to spend more than $330 billion, a 50% increase, to buy 400 fewer planes.  John McCain's opening statement to the Carter nomination hearings.

Yeah.

That is a US Senator with visibility on the program stating that we've seen a 50% increase in the cost of the F-35.

Tell me again how the death spiral isn't here.

Tell me again how I'm misreading budget documents.

What?  No response?  I thought not!