Friday, November 20, 2015

Shots Fired! The internal Air Force war between the bomber and fighter factions heats up!

via DoD Buzz
..retired Lt. Gen. Michael R. Moeller this week called for the service to buy between 150 and 200 aircraft as part of the Long Range Strike Bomber, or LRSB, program — up from the 80 to 100 aircraft the Air Force plans to purchase as part of the acquisition effort awarded last month to Northrop Grumman Corp.
“In the long term, to maintain the bomber force’s viability, the Defense Department should consider funding additional advanced bombers beyond those 100 aircraft before the last B-1s and B-52s retire in 2045,” he concludes in a paper released on Wednesday and titled, “U.S. Bomber Force: Sized to Sustain an Asymmetric Advantage for America.”
Moeller wrote the paper as a non-resident fellow of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, which is affiliated with the Air Force Association, an advocacy group based in Arlington, Virginia.
Of course, doubling the fleet of long-range precision-strike bombers may also significantly increase the program’s estimated cost.
Here.

THIS IS TOO DELICIOUS!  Now we have the bomber and fighter factions inside the USAF competing for those few precious dollars.  Even better?  Make no mistake about it....this is a shot across the bow of the F-35!  Why do I say that?  Easy.  While the public is focused on ISIS, the services are trying to modernize for a probable war with China.

In my opinion you can take the talk about Russia being the number one threat and put it in your back pocket.  Air-Sea Battle (or whatever they're calling it now....they really need to get over all the rebranding nonsense) is designed to fight one enemy...China.

And in the Pacific the USAF is hobbled by distance.  Long range aircraft will be at a premium  and provide the USAF the best chance of contributing to the air part of the battle plan.

Oh and a juicy side benefit of buying more LRSBs?  You might be able to offset a SMALL portion of the cost by reducing the number of new tankers you have to buy (on this I could easily be wrong...I would imagine the same death spiral scenario that the F-35 is caught in would apply but I don't know enough about procurement and the Tanker contract to be sure).

Regardless.  The budget war is here.

5 Things the Media Won't Report About the Refugee Crisis

Thanks to T.Rob for the link!



Uh....wow.

Rebuttal anyone?

The USAF's reversal on buying F-15's...is it about cost or capability?

Thanks to Mobius for the link!


via The Diplomat.
Interestingly, a senior U.S. Air Force official revealed that “the last time we looked, this was more expensive than buying F-35s in bulk.” However, he confirmed that the option of purchasing 72 aircraft is nevertheless still on the table.
The U.S. Air Force has already asked for cost estimates on procuring new F-15s and life-extension/upgrade options. “Also under consideration is a plan to augment U.S. Air Force electronic attack capabilities by fitting some F-15Es with a version of the Raytheon Next Generation Jammer pod,” the article states.
Overall, the Pentagon is planning to procure 2,457 aircraft by 2038. Total acquisition costs are estimated at over $400 billion making it the U.S. military’s most expensive acquisition program. Operation and support costs throughout the aircraft’s lifetime are estimated at over a $1 trillion.
Here.

We have to ask a serious question.  Is this about cost or capability?  Note that the unnamed USAF official said that the last time he looked buying the F-15 was more expensive.  Of course he could be talking about the fairytale cost estimates that the program has put out or he could be actual and factual.  We don't know.

What we do know is this.  The USAF, USMC and USN have talked about the F-35 acting as a sensor node.  Additionally the USN has always planned on using the F-35 in conjunction with the Super Hornet with the Lightning 2 performing the electronic  attack/ISR mission.  In essence they talked about the plane clearing the way.

Now in this article we not only hear about buying F-15's but also fitting them with Next Generation Jammer Pods.

The F-35 was suppose to render the EA-18Gs obsolete.

So again.  What gives?  Is this about cost or capability?

Holy Shit! USAF to consider buying new F-15's, F-16's or EVEN F/A-18's!!!

Thanks to William for the link!

via Aviation Week behind a paywayll
The U.S. Air Force may solicit bids for 72 new Boeing F-15s, Lockheed Martin F-16s or even Boeing F/A-18E/Fs as budget issues put planned production rates for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter out of reach, according to senior service and industry officials at the Defense IQ International Fighter Conference ...
Death spiral!!!!

French Prime Minister says some of the Paris attackers slipped into the country...

via Yahoo
Some of the suspects in the Paris attacks took advantage of Europe's migrant crisis to "slip in" unnoticed, the French premier said Thursday, warning the EU needed to "take responsibility" over border controls
Then this...
More than 800,000 migrants and refugees have arrived this year and Valls said some of the Paris attackers had turned the chaos to their advantage.
"These individuals took advantage of the refugee crisis... of the chaos, perhaps, for some of them to slip in" to France, he said on the France 2 television station.
"Others were in Belgium already. And others, I must remind you, were in France."
Earlier, Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said Paris had received "no information" from other European countries about Abaaoud's arrival on the continent, despite the fact he was a known jihadist and the subject of an international arrest warrant.
Police sources said a tip-off from Moroccan intelligence had helped track 28-year-old Abaaoud to the building where he died on Wednesday along with a woman thought to be his cousin, who detonated an explosives vest.
Interesting.

We were told earlier that all the terrorist were homegrown.  Now its that some slipped into the country.  Which is it?

Breaking! 170 people taken hostage after Mali hotel is stormed by terrorists...

via CNN
Gunmen have taken 170 people hostage inside the Radisson Blu Hotel in Mali's capital, Bamako.
The hotel chain said two armed men have locked in 140 guests and 30 employees.
Malian soldiers with help from U.N. troops have the hotel surrounded.
No group immediately claimed responsibility for the incident.
"This week there was a big delegation for the peace process at the Radisson hotel in Bamako," said Olivier Saldago, a spokesman for MINUSMA. MINUSMA is the U.N. mission in the nation.

The United Nations sent peacekeepers to Mali in 2013 to guard against militant Islamists who threatened to move on Bamako.
The U.S. Embassy in Mali asked American citizens and its staffers to remain indoors. The embassy, in a tweet, called it an "ongoing active shooter operation."

This video by a liberal publication provides the best primer on the Syrian war that I've seen...Must Watch...

Thursday, November 19, 2015

AV-8B Harrier II's strike ISIS (vid)



I'm gonna say this like a mantra...When has the USMC ever declared a weapon operational and then not sent it into combat?   Oh and on a sidenote. DVIDS!!!! Make your videos tailorable by size!

TU-160 launching cruise missiles via Russian Defense Ministry.

Thanks to Robert for the link!

Is SOCOM trying to duck the ISIS battlefront?

via CNN
Under Gen. Stanley McChrystal, U.S. Joint Special Operations Command developed a system that linked forceful action with immediate processing of intelligence and real time analysis. Special operators launched missions at dusk and continued all night; hitting one safe house after another, analyzing the information gained in one strike and launching subsequent raids based on what they found, in hours.

How was this operational tempo achieved? First, the United States was working with the full support, consent and backing of the elected Iraqi government. The U.S. dominated the battle space, there was relatively sizable local support, and these teams enjoyed full air support, including medical evacuation, in the event an operation went poorly.
More here.

The author of this piece is Mike Rogers a former representative.  Below is his byline for the article...
Mike Rogers is a former chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, a host of the Westwood One radio program "Something to Think About," and a CNN national security commentator. 
Make no mistake about it.  Rogers is connected.  He has the ear of not only SOCOM but also elements of Special Forces and the Navy SEALs.  If he's writing this then someone is trying to downplay the effect that SOCOM will have in the fight on ISIS.

Quite honestly I view this as a preemptive strike to keep the calls to increase Special Operations activity against ISIS to a minimum.

All of which makes me wonder.  Remember McRaven...the guy that was bragging and chest thumping about the effectiveness of SOCOM while he was its commander?  Remember all the think tanks that have talked about conventional forces almost being an afterthought because future wars would be a Special Operations only affair?  And finally remember the push by some inside the USMC to second MEU's to SOCOM, with the idea that Marine Air and the attached Ground Combat Element needed to hop on the SOCOM bandwagon (as supporting elements) or be left behind (oh and this was the first instance that I can recall of Marine Air attempting to separate from the Ground Component...there was a serious push for them to detach and provide a couple of squadrons to SOCOM exclusively)?

It looks like all that talk was in error.

We're looking at the second truly hybrid war (the first was in Ukraine) and the snake eaters seem to want to take a pass.

I shouldn't be surprised.  Every theory, concept and idea had in the last 8 or so years has been found wanting.  But what is truly startling is that a force estimated to number between 20K -40K troops can force the White House, State Dept and Pentagon to state that it will take years, maybe decades to defeat!  By that estimate the Iraq invasion should have taken 4 years.

4th Brigade Combat Team (Airborne), 25th ID Artic Jump....photos by Staff Sgt. Daniel Love





Look at the horizon not the ground!  You want to get a dose of ground rush!!

Relax your body .... get ready for that PLF!

When has the USMC ever turned down a combat mission?

“It was not a test, it was a demonstration,” Dan Grazier, a former Marine and member of a government watchdog group said. “Pretty much they just wanted pictures of the F35 taking off an aircraft carrier.”
The Project on Government Oversight, otherwise known as POGO secured the results from Operational Test One through a Freedom of Information request. The detailed report admits the exercise was not a test because it did not mimic real life scenarios. Furthermore the results from Operational Test One found the F35 was not effective and could not be used in any type of limited combat operations.
Mandy Smithberger with POGO says if these jets are taken into combat, our pilots could be in danger. “The Marine Corps declaring the F35 ready for combat was merely a PR exercise.” Smithberger says ideally when jets are taken into combat they need to be ready to go about 80-percent of the time, during this test they were having trouble getting them to work 50 percent of the time.
“And there have been even new tests that have come out that say there are problems with the ejection seat,” she added. “Pilot under a certain weight are at risk of death if they try and eject.”
For Grazier his concern is also the pilots. He maintains because the Lightning II cannot fly enough to be tested, our pilots are at a disadvantage and their training will suffer. “I spent 10 and a half years of my life in uniform, I get no satisfaction in criticizing the Marine Corps,” he said. “These pilots are not going to be trained, god forbid they have to go up against an opponent, they are not going to be as good.”
But then we have this from Investors Business Daily...
While the F-35 is ready to for combat, it doesn't mean it will be used for this mission.
"The aircraft has the capability to deploy anywhere right now — including the Middle East," 1st Lt. Sarah Burns, a public affairs officer, wrote in an email to IBD. "With that said, the Marine Corps is maintaining a very deliberate timeline to ensure the F-35 introduction into the fleet is done safely and responsibly, thus unless absolutely necessary, the aircraft will not deploy until 2017."
Hmmm.  Someone is lying.

My question is simple.  The USAF is trying to kill the A-10.  The USMC has aircraft ready to go.

When has the USMC ever turned down a combat mission?  When has the USMC ever kept a piece of gear out of combat if it was ready to go?   This is an easy one.  NEVER!!!!  Additionally if the F-35 is all that its cracked up to be then the Combatant Commander would have to be a fool not to ask for it!

Its easy to tell who isn't telling the truth on this one.

The F-35 internal revolt grows...

via Proceedings by Major Michael Clark, USMC
The Marine Corps should purchase 94 Embraer A-29 Super Tucanos and 53 fewer F-35Bs to ensure it has a more lethal, expeditionary, economical, and scalable FW attack-aircraft community. The more diverse mix would better support EF21 ’s vision. Potential adversaries would most likely use guerrilla or hybrid strategies against U.S. forces, but an FW attack community that flies only F-35s would be optimized to only counter conventional ones. The A-29, winner of the U.S. Air Force’s light air-support (LAS) competition, is primed to counter guerrilla strategies. As the venerable adage about preparedness advises, “Two is one, one is none.” A complementary mix of F-35s and A-29s would increase the capabilities and versatility of the Marine FW attack aircraft community at a lower cost than the current plan to only purchase F-35s.
Yeah.  The tribe is beginning to take stock of what's happening budget wise and questioning the F-35.

This is nothing but good.

Backroom conversations are being held in the light of day and I fully expect this "internal revolt" to grow.  Make no mistake about it.  The only people that are enamored with the F-35 wear stars.  Everyone else knows that the money can be better spent on other pressing needs.

LIFE magazine, 1965 via DeltaGreenOfficial Tumblr Page

LIFE magazine, 1965. Photographer Larry Burrows accompanied helicopter flight Yankee Papa 13, witnessing the aftereffects of a co-pilot of the helo Yankee Papa 3, 1st Lt. James Magel, being rescued by and dying in the helicopter. The subject of these photos is crew chief Lance Cpl. James C. Farley. Burrows died in February 1971 in a helicopter crash.





Marine Corps Combat Leadership | USMC Training Film | 1986

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Bob Dorr is gravely ill...

via News from Bob...
Friends,
I have a brain tumor.
It appears to be a Glioblastoma, the most common but also the most aggressive kind.
I'm still able to talk, including talking on the phone, but the tumor is near the speech center and my ability to speak, to type, and to add and subtract is deteriorating rapidly. Check it out.
I'm in good spirits amidst these gorgeous autumn days with wonderful support from family, friends, and readers.
Well, okay, not every reader. One reader mailed me a package of Preparation H. That's genuinely thoughtful but maybe not the work of an adoring fan.
Wow.  Just wow.

I have always been a reader and while I don't agree with him and his views on the supremacy of air power and the need for the F-35, I still think he's good to go.

If you're reading this then slide by his blog to wish him well.

So China was running ops in Syria!

Thanks to Brody for the link!

via RT 
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has confirmed that Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) has executed a Chinese national in the Middle East. The ministry has vowed to bring the perpetrators “to justice.”

China has confirmed the identity of the victim as Fan Jinghui. He had been previously identified by the terrorists as a 50-year-old freelance consultant from Beijing.
The man was apparently featured in the terrorist group’s magazine back in September, where he was mockingly put up for“sale” along with a Norwegian hostage. Both China and Norway refused to pay the ransom that the terrorists had demanded. Beijing is now saying that it had attempted to rescue the “cruelly murdered” Chinese national.
RT buried the lead.

If this is true then China has been running ops in the Middle East.  Interesting.   This would be a major gamechanger.  All the world's superpowers and quite a few of its medium powers  would all be running military operations in one small region.  The worse case scenario is probably off the board...but mistakes happen.


This is probably the real mastermind of the Paris attacks...


via State Dept Press Release.
Senior ISIL Border Chief Abu-Muhammad al-Shimali has been associated with ISIL, formerly known as al-Qaida in Iraq, since 2005. He now serves as a key leader in ISIL’s Immigration and Logistics Committee, and is responsible for facilitating the travel of foreign terrorist fighters primarily through Gaziantep, Turkey, and onward to the ISIL-controlled border town of Jarabulus, Syria. Al-Shimali and the ISIL Immigration and Logistics Committee coordinate smuggling activities, financial transfers, and the movement of supplies into Syria and Iraq from Europe, North Africa, and the Arabian Peninsula. In 2014, al-Shimali facilitated the travel from Turkey to Syria of prospective ISIL fighters from Australia, Europe, and the Middle East, and managed ISIL’s processing center for new recruits in Azaz, Syria.
Interesting isn't it?

Before we saw foreign recruits pouring into Syria.  Lately?  Yeah if you haven't been paying attention you would have missed it, but ISIS has changed course and is now telling all would be volunteers to stay in their home countries and carry out terrorist acts.

Which leads me to this.  Why would a guy that's in charge of Logistics and Immigration suddenly show up on the State Depts radar?

I told you my thinking in the title.  This is the real mastermind of the attacks in Paris.  Not some idiot, blood thirsty semi-adult....no....the real brains behind the op weren't even in France.

The named mastermind is simply being used by both sides as a scapegoat.  By Western Security/Intel agencies to placate the public and to let them believe they're safe...and by ISIS to deflect attention from the real people that should be hunted down like dogs.

F-35 wing crack & fix IS a big deal!


Ounces equal pounds, pounds equal pain...

via RT
IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly said the F-35C variant is distinguished by larger wings and more robust landing gear. It is designed for catapult launches and arrestments aboard naval aircraft carriers. Its wingtips also fold to allow for easier storage aboard a carrier.
The Lockheed Martin-made F-35 Lightning II fighter jets are for use on US Navy aircraft carriers. The news won’t affect the Navy’s ability to meet its planned operating date of August 2018. The discovery has prompted engineering contractors to develop a solution, but the cost of a retrofit is not yet known.
“Initial estimates indicate a modification of approximately a half a pound to the aircraft will fix it,” DellaVedova told IHS Jane's. “Modifications to planes flying today will be incorporated to ensure full life operation.”
The adjustments made to the cracked test plane will be applied to the rest of the fleet. The damage is not expected to affect current flight operations for any of the variants of the jet currently in service, according to UPI.
All of the F-35s flying today combined have logged fewer than 250 flight hours, according to Pentagon officials.
I popped this out as a topic because its being underplayed in my opinion.  Think about it like this.

The F-35 was once the subject of a DRASTIC weight reduction program.  The reason?  Fat jets don't fly fast, high or far.  Even now the plane is not meeting original goals for range.

So when the programs cheerleaders tell you that a half pound is no big deal remember this from Air Space Mag (2006)...
Inside Lockheed Martin’s Fort Worth, Texas facilities, a squad of 550 engineers was formed to do the liposuction. Most of the weight was in the airframe, but with thousands of extra pounds to account for, the innards of the JSF also had to be redesigned. It was everybody’s problem. Directed by about a dozen team leaders, each plucked from his or her area of expertise (airframe, mission systems, engines, and so on), the engineers called themselves the STOVL Weight Attack Team, or SWAT.
Before the team was formed, the SWAT engineers had been watching the penalties imposed by the extra pounds. The F-35B was busting specs on landing speeds, especially in cases where a pilot returned with a full load of unexpended ordnance.
“There was a lot of agreement that the program was in a critical stage,” says Art Sheridan, the current director of F-35 affordability at Lockheed. With SWAT, “the company was putting its money where its mouth was,” he says.
That was in 2006 and that was about the STOVL version but the same applies across the board.  Issues abound and its past time to stop this concurrency nonsense and do this right.  Production should stop.  Flight testing should proceed and not another dime spent on mistake jets that will cost millions if not billions to repair.


ISIS is in the United States.

Thanks to Robert for the link!

via Reuters.
Honduran authorities have detained five Syrian nationals who were trying to reach the United States using stolen Greek passports, but there are no signs of any links to last week's attacks in Paris, police said.
The Syrian men were held late on Tuesday in the Honduran capital, Tegucigalpa, on arrival from Costa Rica, and had been planning to head to the border with neighboring Guatemala. The passports had been doctored to replace the photographs with those of the Syrians, police said.
"We received information from (fellow) police services that these five Syrians left Greece and passed through Turkey, Brazil, Argentina and San Jose in Costa Rica before finally reaching Tegucigalpa," said Anibal Baca, spokesman for Honduras' police. "They are normal Syrians."
What I highlighted should shock anyone with the ability to comprehend what they're reading.

That is a smuggling route ladies and gents.  There is a trail to get Middle Eastern persons into the US undetected via our southern border.

ISIS is here.

Put aside your normalcy bias and consider the facts.  Mass migration from the Middle East and some thought that we wouldn't be touched?  Not bloody likely.  Additionally if you pay any attention to Clapper and his almost desperate sounding interviews you'll realize how freaked out the intel community is right now.   MSNBC is reporting that he called ISIS the most powerful terrorist group ever.

It isn't if but when we suffer another catastrophic attack here in the US.  Of course I could just be wearing a tinfoil hat....