This is why the Turks shot down the Russian fighter...this war is a quagmire....

Thanks to Julian for the link!

via Daily Sabah

government has called for a U.N. Security Council meeting to discuss attacks on Turkmens in neighboring Syria days after Ankara summoned the Russian ambassador to protest the heavy airstrikes on Turkmen regions in the war-torn country where DAESH has no presence.

About 1,700 people have fled the mountainous area near the Turkish border as a result of fighting in the last three days. Russian jets hit the area in support of ground operations by Syrian government forces. Sources on the ground report that in addition to some 3,000 regime troops, some 4,000 members of the Shiite Liwaa Zulfiqar militia, around 1,000 militants from the Marxist Alawite group Syrian Resistance, led by Turkish-born Mihraç Ural, are participating in the military operations.

Here.

God!  I wanted to clean up my language on this blog but FUCK!  This thing is a goddamn quagmire.

Thanks to Julian's link we get a better picture of Turkish actions.  The Russians were pounding the hell outta Turkmens in Syria that are participating in action against Assad and Turkey responded by aiding them.  Personally I wouldn't doubt that they're as twisted as ISIS but this makes things a bit clearer.

Still.

The Turks have lost their fucking minds.  This was stupid.  They're playing an extremely dangerous double game that will see them sitting on the ground gasping for air from the gaping chest wound that Russia will deliver.

Many think this is going to lead to nothing.  I disagree.  World Wars have started over less.  Do I think WW3 is starting?  Not yet, but I do think that we've seen the opening shot of a major regional war going from cold to hot.

UPDATE: s300v4 put this pic up.  Long story short?  The Russians are doubling down and blowing the fuck out of the Turkmen.

Rebels admit war crime...shot at pilot parachuting from downed aircraft...

Just heard on the news that rebels are claiming that they shot at the pilot as he parachuted from his downed aircraft killing him.

That's a war crime boys and girls.  Paratroopers are fair game when they're in the sky...pilots?  Nope.

So now we have these sketchy ass rebels committing war crimes and bragging about it?

This is a mess and now the Turks are calling in NATO.  We need better friends...the Turks are NOT worth the trouble.

NOTE:  Dima found the vid of the rebels shooting at aircrew in distress.

How will the Russians respond? I'm betting by aiding the Kurds...

So now that I've chewed on the Turks shoot down of a Russian jet the next question becomes how will they respond.

Personally I'm betting some type of aid to the Kurds.  What are the Turks scared of most?  A Kurdish state.

This aid could come in the form of a "no fly zone" over their territory, more military assistance...the list is really endless.

Regardless.  The Turks need to be reeled  in before they start WW3.  This vid is more appropriate than ever...You can't have this many forces operating this close together and think that shit won't turn real and nasty...THIS BUSINESS WILL GET OUT OF CONTROL, IT WILL GET OUT OF CONTROL AND WE'LL BE LUCKY TO LIVE THRU IT!

Sidenote:  Hate me if you like, but I gotta call it like I see it.  The Turks are amateurs and amateurs will get you killed.  Incursions across borders, both on land and in the air happen all the time.  Don't believe me?  Talk to some of the carrier boys...talk to some of the boys in the 2nd Armored Cav during cold war days.  You don't start shooting wars over navigation errors or a little "big boy play".  Let me go one step further and start some hate.  I'm on Russia's side with this one.  I repeat.  The Turks have lost their fucking minds.

WTF. The Turks have lost their fucking minds!

I wake up, look at the news and Turkey has shot down a Russian Jet?

They've lost their fucking minds.

More to come...oh and I predicted this but wow.  Still think I wear a tinfoil hat?

NOTE:  MSNBC is barely covering this news.  They're focused on politics.  The same applies to Fox.  No one seems to consider this news that could change the course of nations.  Is this really no big deal?

NOTE 1:  The Turkish military websites are just reporting this news...no chest thumping.  I wonder if they sense that a line was crossed against a country that doesn't play?  You can screw with the US but Russia?

NOTE 2:  I wonder if the Russians will declare a "no fly zone" above the Kurds?  That would annoy and scare the shit out of Turkey.

Something is screwy with the UK's F-35 numbers...

Image taken from Think Defence Blog (full story on the SDSR here).

Check this out from Think Defence...

No details of timings, numbers per squadron, basing (rumour is Conningsby nd Lossiemouth for Typhoon), training, or where the air and ground and air crews are coming from.
‘We will maintain our plan’ is not an order.
By 2023, the UK is planned to have 42 F-35B’s in service, remember, this is a JOINT Combat Aircraft, not just for carrier strike. This translates into two squadrons (809 NAS and 617 SQN) plus the OCU.

Yeah.  He's absolutely right.  But what has me spinning is the infographic that TD has from the SDSR.  Two squadrons of F-35s.  Then they talk about buying 138 over the life of the program.

The Brits are being cheeky as hell.  First we find out that the first 18 or so planes  will be maintenance and training platforms and now this?

Something screwy is going on with the numbers here.  My opinion of the program continues and this attempt at positive news from our Brit brothers doesn't change the trajectory of things at all.  

The F-35 is in a flat spin headed out to sea....The Brits are reaching for the ejection handle...they just don't want the front seater to know it yet...

Breaking! State Dept issues worldwide travel alert!

Fox News is saying that several terrorist groups are planning attacks against Westerners.

In addition to ISIS at least five other groups were named.

My take?  

We're at war folks...whether you like or not...whether you're ready or not.

Russian troops led an offensive in Syria?

via Washington Beacon.

Jerusalem—Russia has sent ground forces into battle for the first time in Syria,according to Kuwait daily, al-Rai.
The troops drove rebel forces from strategic positions, said the newspaper, which is close to the Damascus regime. It did not say when the troops went into action and there was no mention of casualties. The Russians are not known to have sizable forces in Syria but a small number of tanks have been seen.
Until now, Russia has confined itself to strikes by aircraft and cruise missiles against rebel forces and the Islamic State in Syria.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week in a meeting with military officials that they must prepare for the next stage of the battle.
“Our objectives are being fulfilled and fulfilled well,” he said, according to the RIA Novosti news agency. “But for now that is not enough to cleanse Syria of rebels and terrorists and to protect Russians from possible terrorist attacks. The military campaign has not achieved enough and a next phase is needed.”

Here.

Everyone forgets the 800 pound gorilla in the room when it comes to Russia/US relations.

Putin can't stand Obama and vice versa.

With every move that Obama makes, Putin counters.  It makes sense tactically and diplomatically.  It shows that Russia is willing to put "skin in the game" when it comes to supporting allies.

But I also get the sense that Putin also likes the idea of tweaking Obama....I can't explain it but I feel like he gets enjoyment from humiliating him.

This went from being interesting to fascinating.  Forget popcorn.  Put some burgers on the grill and roll the lazy-boy outside.  We're about to see a show.

S-300's are being delivered to Iran...

via Sputnik

On November 9, Russia signed a new contract with Iran on the delivery of "about 300" S-300 air defense systems, according to Russia’s state technologies corporation Rostec.
The delivery of Russian-made missiles is expected to be completed by the end of 2015, Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehqan said on November 10.

Here.

And with this the failure of two president's over the span of 16 or so years is complete.

Iran will not only get nuclear weapons but they'll have the means to protect them.  All the talk about F-35's being able to destroy S-300's is wishful thinking.  These missiles, as part of an integrated missile defense system, will make any attacking force suffer badly.

Oh and consider this.  The Iranians were able to knock down one of our stealth drones that is orders of magnitude more stealthy than the F-35.

Saudi Arabia will get nuclear weapons and once they do (probably before the end of this year or early next), my prediction about ISIS being a pleasant memory will come true.  We're going to pivot to worrying about nukes in the middle east.  Nuclear war there is no longer a matter of if but when.

About those new Brit "Strike" Brigades. UPDATED!

via Sputnik

The UK will also create two new 'strike brigades' by 2025 to be rapidly deployable, able to self-deploy thousands of kilometers, and with a much lower logistic footprint. They will use the new Ajax family (previously known as Scout) range of vehicles, comprising 6 variants and almost 600 armoured vehicles.

Wow.  Two new "Strike" Brigades built around the Ajax family of vehicles?  Don't quite understand this move.  They're already covered when it comes to rapid deployment ops with their Air Assault Brigade.   Quite honestly it just seems like a bit of changing a deck chairs, and using an item that they have already started to procure and to call their already established Mechanised Infantry Brigades a new name.

The wording is also suspicious.  The Strike Brigades will be rapidly deployable and able to self deploy  thousands of kilometers with a lower logistic footprint?

That sounds like the US Army when talking about the Stryker Brigades circa 2003 or there abouts.

More to come on the Brit SDSR.  Just starting to dig thru the numbers.

UPDATED:  

THINK DEFENCE Blog is covering the SDSR so I don't have to...first he seems to agree with my thinking on the new "Strike" Brigades...

Follow the conversation and thinking here and here.

Protolab PMPV 6x6

Thanks to Galvars for the link!

via uusisuomi.fi

Finnish Protolab Ltd has developed a top-protected personnel transport vehicle for defense and crisis-management operation.
Protolab PMPV 6x6 is the manufacturer of the load-carrying capacity with mobility and competitive, but at the same time inexpensive multi-purpose vehicle with a strong mine warfare, a seat at sirpalesuojaus meet the modern crisis management requirements for the official use of defense and security.
- Started in 2009 and has progressed to now test drive phase, with the first prototype is driven road and off-road tests will tell Protolab Oy, Chairman of the Board of DirectorsJukka Kemppainen.

Here and another story with video here.

Remarkably good timing on this by Finish Protolab.  The  growth industry for at least the moment in defense/security circles is focused on domestic actions.  That means that MRAPs are about to become the "hotness".

SLDInfo has the best answer yet on why France didn't go to NATO for help...

via SLDInfo.

It is most important to note that when President Hollande declared a state of war with ISIS, he deliberately chose to invoke Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty, not Article V of the NATO treaty.
Article 42.7 is the “solidarity clause” that states if a member of the European Union is the victim of “armed aggression on its territory”. other EU member states have an “obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power.”
In essence, France chose to work within a European framework, without formally drawing in NATO and the U.S. direction that would entail.

If that isn't juicy enough for you, check out the reality of the Iranian nuclear deal...

When analysts and intelligence experts were highlighting the warming sun of the Arab Spring, there was much hope: democracy was in the air and the gap between Islam and the West might be closing.
Rather than a warming sun, close observers felt an icy chill from the events of this Fall in Paris, and an evident European strategic shift away from the agenda set by Washington.
Major changes in geostrategic forces began when the U.S. President backed off his Syria Red Line, and then pushed relentlessly his own objectives with Iran while dismissing French, Israeli, and Gulf Arab reservations to the U.S.-Iran accord.
The Russian decision to accept Assad’s invitation to intervene militarily in Syria, and enlarge its military base presence there laid down an historic marker for a significant reconfiguration of power, not only in the Gulf, but also the entire Eastern Mediterranean region.

So not only do we have the answer to the oft asked question of why France didn't evoke article 5, but we also have a warning...one I've been making since the start of this mess.

"a significant reconfiguration of power" 

We can already look to the future on this one.  The Obama admin's signature foreign policy achievement will be hailed as nothing but a failure

What happens after ISIS is gone?

via Sputnik.

Terrorists of the so-called ‘Islamic State’, or ISIL, keep on surrendering to Kurdish forces with several hundred more already having capitulated, according to local media.
ISIL militants have been surrendering to advancing Peshmerga troops on the regular basis since supply routes connecting Iraq and Syria have been cut off heavy pounding by the US-led coalition airstrikes, a frontline commander of Kurdish forces in Gwer, Qadr Qadr, told Kurdish media outlet Bas News on Sunday.

Interesting.  It seems that only once an issue becomes a crisis does the Obama Administration deem it worthy of attention.  Ok, even if you think that's unfair let me ask you this simple question.

What happens after ISIS is gone?

I contend that ISIS, operating in an open desert in technicals with a few armored vehicles thrown in, is hardly a difficult tactical problem.  Lt's going thru the Basic Course face bigger challenges.  Go to a good SNCO division course and you'll face more difficult.  Long story short.  The lie that fighting ISIS would be a "long" war...a generational war was just that.  So what happens when they're finally put in the ground.  Oh and I remind you that all the world's militaries are facing off against a force that numbers between 20 and 40K troops.

My prediction?

Attention will once again focus on internal issues.  The states in the Middle East will no longer have an enemy to point at.  The US, EU and Russia will no longer have a "credible" foil.  Will it lead to even more instability because all the rivalry will no longer have a cover?  Will Iran and Saudi Arabia finally get to it instead of using proxies?

I wonder about this entire "campaign" against ISIS.

I'm repeating myself but keep it simple.  We have the world united to fight 20 to 40 thousand troops in the open desert.   Yet instead of killing this threat we allow it to fester.  Now we see the Kurds, and the Syrian Army finally making major pushes against them?

This whole fight has never added up.  Not at all.  But once its over the real fights will begin...and fight against ISIS will look like happy times.

Brussels remains under threat, New York does drills and the word games over refugees continues...

via CNN

Children in France on Monday will have their bags searched at the front doors of schools, while administrators will be tasked with verifying the identities of everyone on school grounds, according to the Ministry of National Education website. Gatherings around the front doors of schools are discouraged, the ministry said, explaining parents should drop off their kids and promptly leave and principals should designate on-campus sites where students can gather and older students can smoke. Field trips to the Paris area are canceled until next week, though trips within the Paris region can resume, the ministry said.

How stupid are things in Brussels?  This report was posted 6 hours ago and the current reporting is that schools will be canceled on Monday.  Additionally there is some type of "police action" going on inside the city as I write this.  Brussels is in a hurt locker.  Even if there is no terrorist attack they've been exposed as the epicenter of Muslim Extremism in Europe AND they've been shown to be barely capable of dealing with the reality that this brings.   Meanwhile in New York...via NBCNewYork...

The exercise, executed jointly with the federal Department of Homeland Security, came just days before the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, one of the city's most high-profile events.
"In New York City, we are, at this time, very well-prepared and continually improving that preparedness," Police Commissioner William Bratton said outside the abandoned Bowery station in Lower Manhattan.

Hmm.  So they put together a terror drill of this size in a week?  That alone is highly unusual but ok.  My thinking?  They have something credible and this is a two'fer.  One to call the actors off and second to reassure the public.  As usual I could easily be wrong.

Last but not least.  I have to take another bite of this refugee word sausage that is being played. 

Above you see a newly built refugee camp in Jordan.  This is where the info that the refugees go thru a rigorous background check is coming from.  In these camps refugees are screened and their backgrounds gone over.  In these camps you'll find that the majority of people are women and children.  This is what the advocates are holding up as examples.  Below you see the flood of people into Europe...

This is where people like ME come up with the meme that the refugees are primarily (above 70%) male and of fighting age (I've always been told that this is between 16 and 65).  This is where the word sausage comes into play.  The liberals are using one example (the first) to defend the second example which has conservatives worried.

The most damning part?

The UN is saying that the mass of people rushing European borders should be designated refugees.  Which means that technically the liberals are telling the truth...but with a liars twist, a middle finger to honest debate and massive fuck you to the conservative elite that is trying to straddle the line on this issue.  Its all bullshit of course and we're left to the uninformed, and socially 'bendable' (meaning the people that raise their fingers in the air and follow whatever is popular) to determine the fate of nations on both sides of the Atlantic.

Personally, optimism is not high.

Hope in the UK that the F-35 program will change...

via BBC

Britain is to speed up the purchase of new fighter jets to step up its "aircraft carrier punch" Chancellor George Osborne says, as the government prepares to outline defence spending.
The move will be part of Monday's Strategic Defence and Security Review.
It means the UK will have 24 F35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft available on its two new aircraft carriers by 2023.

This has been burning up the conversation on the blog this morning so I spent a few minutes to get the actual article.  But wait.  They're talking by 2023.  That tells me that once again the Brits are "being cheeky".  The program office is still selling the lie that they will "bend the cost curve" so the Brits are being polite and saying that if you can do so then we'll buy the plane...check this part out and note the wording...

"By 2023, we will be able to have these jets - some of the most powerful in the world - the F35, on the decks of these carriers and Britain, second only to the United States, will be able to project power abroad in order to defend ourselves at home."

Well of course they will have the second most powerful carrier fleet...at least for a year or two till the Chinese get their carriers online...no one else except the French operate full size carriers these days and their ship is on its last legs.

But this last portion is what has everyone atwitter...

In Monday's defence review, David Cameron is also expected to commit the UK to purchasing 138 F35 jets overall and over a longer period of time.

This is the part where the Brits are being 'cheeky'.  What is the longer period of time?  Do you really think that a program line will be kept running over a 30 year period for an airplane that has this many problems this early in development and over a period of 20 plus years?

I don't.  Neither do the Brits.  They're practical.  They were simply being polite.  They were being nice.  They didn't want to laugh in the program office's face.

But make no mistake about it.  They know better.  Planes deferred are planes that aren't bought.  But make note about a part that I skipped but should be highlighted...

The 18 others on order will be used in the training fleet or in maintenance,according to the Sunday Times.

This tells us so much.

The planes that the Brits are buying NOW are worthless.  Only as training and maintenance demonstrators do they have value.  This tells us that the upgrade costs will be so high that the Brits balked.

And that's the rub.  Even for the Brits the costs are just too damn much.  Focus is solidly on the price of these planes for our allies now.  They didn't bend the cost curve and  its coming back to haunt.

This isn't good news.  This is hope in the UK that the F-35 will change...and they're backing it up by hedging their bets.... 

Brussels under serious and immediate threat...troops are in the streets...

via CNN

Belgium has placed Brussels at the highest terror alert level, citing a "serious and imminent threat that requires taking specific security measures as well as specific recommendations for the population."
The announcement by the Crisis Centre of the Belgian Interior Ministry is advising the public to avoid places where large groups gather -- such as concerts, sporting events, airports and train stations -- and comply with security checks. The rest of the nation will maintain its current terror level.
If people take the terror alert seriously, Brussels will be "shut down tomorrow," CNN terrorism analyst Paul Cruickshank said.

Here.

Belgium started moving troops into the streets of Brussels yesterday.  The only reason why I didn't post on it was because of the pushback that I was getting on the illegal immigration in Europe issue and my wanting to see what the European/American bloggers were saying about it.

I've seen nada.

People are in the duck and cover mode because they don't want to be caught saying anything inflammatory.  I get it but think about this.  For the second weekend in a row a major European city is endangered.

Personally I wonder about modern society.  Just 20 years ago this would have been reason enough for vigorous and lethal military action.  The assault against ISIS would have been unrelenting.

Today?

The West is in a defensive crouch saying "mommy make the bad man stop".  I'd be disgusted but this evolution to passivity in the face of danger has been bred into the zeitgeist of the populations on both sides of the Atlantic.  Chesty was right (Some say that this quote is racist.  I might be naive but I believe he was talking about the American race.  If I'm  wrong I'll adjust accordingly).

What did the USAF learn from the F-22 debacle with regard to the F-35?

12Bravo, a reader of mine made this statement...

The two planes you just mentioned,(F-15 & F-16) are the gold standard that the others try to meet in performance. With upgrade to the radar, missiles, & EW you have aircraft that are viable for the future. The F-35 has been in development for over Twenty Years, with another 5 to 10 years before it's ready for service. We put a man on the moon in under 10 years. Twentyfive to thirty years for a aircraft program is pathetic. F-35 should have stayed three separate programs. The F-A/F-X shouldn't be an issue, hopefully everyone learned from the JSF

The part I want to focus on is highlighted.

What did the USAF learn from the F-22 debacle?  I'm afraid it wasn't the right lessons.  You would think that they would have learned to clean up the development cycle.  Developed a reasonable upgrade path from the start...not after threatened with cancellation by a SecDef that didn't have the balls to actually carry it thru.

But no.

The USAF along with (sadly) the USMC and aided by partner nations learned nothing that would actually get the plane into service.

What they learned was how to develop a scheme to make it difficult to cancel.  They plotted to make a so called "vital" defense project a jobs program.

Having so many subcontractors in so many states and nations?  That has nothing to do with efficiency.  I would even argue that it helps DRIVE UP costs instead of lower them.

The USAF learned nothing from the F-22 and that's why the F-35 will probably face the same fate....An extremely truncated buy and the promise that next time they'll get it right. 

UK to reassess the number of F-35's required...

Thanks to ELP Blog for the link!

via The Guardian

The MoD has been struggling to find the money for planes for the two aircraft carriers. Anything less than at least 20 planes for each carrier would be viewed at Westminster as a political embarrassment.
The way around this for the MoD is to stress that only one carrier is likely to be operational at any time, with the other being used for training or being refitted, so planes would only be needed for one.
The MoD originally wanted 138, then slashed it to 48. The plan is to buy an initial 16 F-35s and reassess the position when the carriers are in service.

And the hits just keep on coming.

Initial buy of 16 and then a reassessment?  They're all but saying that the 48 number is a pipe dream.  With plans to retain Typhoon and probably assign a batch to only air defense of the islands I would bet that the RAF pulls out all together.

I wonder if they're crunched the maintenance numbers and want no part of the plane?

Regardless, this is rapidly coming to a head.  The F-35 just costs too damn much for us and our allies.  Death spiral?  Its much worse than that.  This plane is in a flat spin headed out to sea...

Word play and the refugee crisis...

I've been in a running debate about the refugee crisis in Europe.  Many of my readers are asking me if I believe my lying eyes.

I've seen video after video of the refugees in Europe and my eyes instantly note that most of these people are male, fighting age and in some cases hostile.

So why the debate?  Because I've called the refugees Syrian.  I constantly state that the Syrian refugees flooding into your country is an issue.

They then hit me with what they think is their trump card.  "Most of the Syrian refugees are women and children"!

Its bullshit.  They're drilling down on a minor quibble.  The people flooding into Europe are from the Middle East and Africa.  They're economic refugees...and they're mostly fighting age males.

I now know why I find some political arguments so tiresome.  Both sides know the issue but one side is being disingenuous.  In this case its the people that are stating that their is no problem.

You people know better, locked on to one minor point and  use to push your flawed point.  Sickening.

M1A2 Sepv2 Abrams Main Battle Tank @ Combined Resolve V in Grafenwoehr, Germany...photos by Markus Rauchenberger

Why that ungainly and tall RWS?  I really wish the Army had found a better solution.  Regardless the USMC is approaching crunch time when it comes to its own Tank Battalions.  Will they workout some upgrade path piggybacking off the US Army or will they allow this much needed form of all weather direct fire, that's at the beck and call of the Ground Combat Element and it alone to fade away?  I don't know if its fair to compare the German solution because it can be argued that it too is tall but it passes the eyeball test...

The Russian example can also be considered tall but again, it passes the eyeball test and appears more compact.  Is this another example of budget constraints dictating weapons fit or is it a difference in operating philosophy?  I guess it doesn't matter.  We have the most experienced tankers in the world thanks to Afghanistan and Iraq (arguably)....maybe the upgrade path is the correct one.

Sea Wars Trailer

vid via Foxtrot Alpha 



Note:  I usually don't post these type vids because to be quite honest they're usually poorly done, not at all funny and tend to depict aspects of our society that I have issues with (haven't seen a female sailor or god forbid a Marine twerking yet but its bound to happen).

Having said all that, maybe its the Star Wars fan in me but this is just funny, well produced, just plain good and shows a bit of the Carrier Air Wing in a magnificent light.  Well done CVN 69 "IKE"!