Was the shootdown of the Russian SU-24 the result of a cowboy pilot and not pre-planned?

via The Wall Street Journal.

The Kremlin on Friday confirmed Russian President Vladimir Putin had received Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s request to meet on Nov. 30 in Paris, but declined to say whether the Russian leader would agree.
Mr. Erdogan’s invitation comes days after a Turkish jet fighter shot down a Russian bomber along the Syrian border, killing one of the two aviators on board, and marking the first time a North Atlantic Treaty Organization member downed a Russian warplane since 1952.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Mr. Erdogan’s request had been submitted to Mr. Putin. “That’s all I can say,” Mr. Peskov told Russian journalists Friday, according to the Interfax news agency.
Both leaders are due to travel to Paris to participate in a United Nations climate change summit.

Bear with me for a minute.  Consider what we heard shortly after news of the Turks shooting down the Russian SU-24...via YourNewsWire (but reported everywhere)...

Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu revealed on Wednesday that he personally gave the orders to shoot down the Russian Su-24 jet on Tuesday.

“Despite all the warnings, we had had to destroy the aircraft” Davutoğlu told his AK party. “The Turkish Armed Forces carried out orders given by me personally”.

Now we hear that Erdogan's asking to meet with Putin?  Something is off here. What if.  What if this shoot down was not ordered?  What if we simply have a case of a cowboy pilot that went off script and Turkish leadership was/is attempting to respond in a way to save face...provide justification for the move...AND to preserve their relationship with Russia? 

It sound far fetched I know but can you provide a better explanation for Turkish actions up to this point? There is no way that this was a pre-planned event or the Turks are even worse military planners than I ever dreamed possible.  Think about their moves right after the shootdown.

*Right after it happens they call for a NATO emergency meeting?

*They they appeared shocked at Russian economic sanctions?

*Erdogan appears on CNN failing to provide a credible answer for the reasoning behind the shootdown.

They're lurching about searching for a proper response and failing miserably.  This morning I read that Turkish warplanes would no longer fly in Syria...meaning that the excuse given, to protect Turkmen, is another lie (or they're willing to abandon them).

As crazy as it sounds I'm really beginning to think that my cowboy pilot theory is right.

UPDATE:  Consider the course of events.  You all have the tick tock that the Turks have given us.  Now consider that the Turkish PM is saying that he ordered the shootdown.  Obviously a lie.  No way he could have had enough time (even monitoring the radar) to make such a monumental decision.  Additionally Turkish aircraft had been straying into Syrian air space during this event without being fired on.  I still think you had a pilot that was maneuvering hard, got his fangs out, nailed them to the floorboard (meaning he wasn't about to pull them back in) and pulled the trigger.

Australia's Senate to conduct inquiry of F-35 purchase? Could they be next?

 Thanks to Peter @ Air Power Australia for the link!



via Sydney Morning Herald...

A push to examine the wisdom of Australia's planned $24 billion fleet of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters - ranking as the nation's largest ever defence purchase - is underway in the Senate.
Greens defence spokesman Peter Whish-Wilson on Friday has urged the Senate's standing committee on foreign affairs and trade to inquire into the suitability of the stealth jet for Australia's strategic interests.
The move comes after the election last month of new Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on a promise to abandon plans to purchase the troubled fighter.

Well we know what Lockheed Martin lobbyist were doing over the Thanksgiving holiday.

They were working overtime to block the effort by the Senate to take a look at the F-35...a real look.

On a sidenote.  No one has fully explained why Japan, S. Korea and Turkey are developing their own stealth fighters.  No one is looking at the plan to keep the Typhoon in service till 2050 (or so).  The F-35 is supposedly only second to the F-22 in air to air combat and in some ways (according to the program office) superior.  If that's true then why the "backup" planning by partners that "know" how good the airplane is? 

S-400 arrives at Russia's Syrian Airbase (vid)..via Alert 5.

Uh...I don't think this is the short range version...and I do believe its being paired with the "stealth detecting" radar.

Yeah.  As of this moment, Russia can protect its airstrikes against Turkmen forces (as if they need to do airstrikes...they're well within Grad range) without putting one fighter in the air.

The battlespace in Syria just got MUCH more complex.  Lets hope that our military forces are more professional than our political leadership and will work with Russia to deconflict this battlespace.

It's late but sincere...have a Happy Thanksgiving!

This is late but sincere.  Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

But while you're doing it consider a few things.  First this is basically a religious holiday...you're giving Thanks to God for the blessing of the year, which has been turned into a secular eat and spend fest.

Something is wrong (in my opinion) with that.  Additionally I want you to think about this.  Many Christian organizations are jumping thru hoops to get Syrian Muslims into the US and Europe, yet at the same time are turning a blind eye to people in their own countries that are hurting...hungry...and desperate.  There is something wrong with that.

Last but not least, I can't help but think about what we're gonna see later tonight.  Consumerism on steroids.  People will rush out to buy stuff they don't need to satisfy a requirement that isn't there.  They will claw, punch, scratch...and a few will steal to meet this artificial need.

Disgusting.

I really do hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving but I wish that all who read this to stop, consider and chart a different course from the average Westerner.

Dare to be different! Dare to think! It won't be easy and you will be ostracized for doing it but I really believe it's worth the effort.

S-400 Infographic via Sputnik.

Click on pic to enlarge or if that doesn't work go here.

The F-35 fanclub is all excited about the latest defense appropriation...let's take a real look at things.

I've had a couple of fanboys from F-16.net stop by (not talking about my regular F-35 supporters...just one or two new faces) basically talking shit.

They believe that with the signing of the latest defense appropriation, news from the UK about buying their complete alotment of F-35s etc...that things are smooth sailing.

Nothing could be further from the truth.  Lets take a quick look down memory lane (oh and this is just this year...I'm not going back to the promises at the start of the program and this is only dealing with numbers...not capability).

via Breaking Defense, July 2015.

The prospective chairman calls the F-35 a “vital component of our effort to ensure the Joint Force maintains dominance in the air.” But there is a big but. He discloses that the requirement for the size of the fleet is being reviewed: “Given the evolving defense strategy and the latest Defense Planning Guidance, we are presently taking the newest strategic foundation and analyzing whether 2,443 aircraft is the correct number. Until the analysis is complete, we need to pursue the current scheduled quantity buy to preclude creating an overall near-term tactical fighter shortfall.”

How did the Pentagon respond?  By basically calling the incoming Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff a liar.

via Defense News, Aug 2015.

The Pentagon is not conducting a formal review of F-35 planned procurement numbers, a spokesman said Tuesday, despite comments by the incoming chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff that indicate otherwise.

You would think that would be all the proof I could muster that the number of F-35s bought would be cut, but it gets better.

via The Washington Examiner, Oct 2015. 

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., says the government will have to cut its purchases because of the "prohibitive" cost of the original number. "There's just not going to be that money," he told the Washington Examiner. "Do the math."
A reduced buy of F-35s plays into the debate in Congress over saving the A-10 from retirement despite Air Force pressure to get rid of those aging aircraft. "That's one reason why we're fighting to keep the A-10 in existence," said McCain, "because they're saying the F-35 would replace the A-10, but there aren't going to be that many F-35s."

And then we have the news from a UK conference and Senior Air Force personnel stating that they were looking at a buy of F-15/16/18s.

via The Diplomat, Nov 2015.

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter might not be produced in sufficient numbers to maintain the U.S. Air Force’s current operational capabilities due to budgetary constraints, according to Aerospace Daily & Defense Report. As a result the service is considering filling the capabilities gap with 72 Boeing F-15s, Lockheed-Martin F-16’s, or even Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets.
“F-15s and F-16s are now expected to serve until 2045, when an all-new aircraft will be ready, and plans to modernize F-16s with active electronically scanned array radars and other improvements are being revived,” the article states.

The program office and USAF were alot quicker with the "lie card" and responded almost instantly.

via Flight Global, Nov 2015. 

The US Air Force has denied any plans to purchase another tranche of Lockheed Martin F-16 or Boeing F-15 combat jets following reports it could seek bids for up to 72 new aircraft.
According to comments attributed to a senior US Air Combat Command official at an international fighter conference in London last week, the current Lockheed F-35 procurement plan could prove unaffordable, and another fighter wing of F-15s, F-16s or perhaps even F/A-18s is being considered to supplement the current fleet – which will serve into the 2040s as F-35s are delivered.

Long story short?

The F-35 Program Office, USAF, and USMC aviation will go to any lengths to provide cover for this airplane....up to and including calling the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs a liar during his CONFIRMATION HEARING!

That is astonishing!  I'm in 1st Civ Div.  I can speak my mind.  These are military members...questioning the word of a senior officer!  That is punishable under the UCMJ.  As a matter of fact I've seen men punished for less.

The F-35 is in trouble.  The churn around this program is a sight to behold and the communication around it is indicative of a program in trouble.  The same happened with the F-22, the Comanche, the Crusader and the EFV.

F-35 fanboys.  Don't take this snapshot in time and think that all is well.  Far from it.  I don't say death spiral anymore...I say its in a flat spin headed out to sea. 

Putin tours Armata MBT plant (pic)

Thanks to Intul i5 for the pic!

Ordinarily this wouldn't begin to interest me but just look at the size of those tanks!  They're massive!  I realize that Putin is short but still!

The armor race is on.  I'm not in contact with anyone in the Tank Community at this time but I'd love to know what the tread heads think of this beast.  Oh and not the chest thumping but the behind closed doors, adult beverages are poured and real deal talk.

 I think we're seeing a new baseline in tank warfare being established.  All thoughts of modest upgrades to the M1 Abrams, Leopard and Challenger will seem insufficient.

We've got to get our heads out of the small war thinking and move back to conventional combat ricky tick quick.  Air enabled MAGTF's, Company Landing Teams, Special Ops led campaigns are all wishful thinking now.  The new reality is that battalion sized combined arms teams (at minimum) will be needed on today's battlefield.

Turkey is sending additional tanks to the Syrian border...are they about annex land?

This story has been circulating for awhile now.

Turkey has been sending more and more armor to the border with Syria.  There have been reports that Turkey plans to annex Syrian territory to act as a buffer against Kurdish forces.

Is it happening now?  Check this out...via Anadolu Agency (Turkish State Run News)...

Military vehicles from the Yayladağı, moved troops to the border will be deployed.

Following the lowering of the tank Russian warplanes violating Turkish airspace and armored vehicles were shipped to troops on the Syrian border it was learned.
Moving tanks and military vehicles under safety measures to be deployed in the unity of the Syrian border.
Reporter: Halit Demir

What makes this interesting?  No, its not just the tank movement, its the fact that this is listed only in the Turkish language version, its nowhere to be found in the English language site.

Is this propaganda...or is this preparing the public for further military action? 

Either way this thing ain't over.  Yeah...you watch football...I will too, but my computer will be tuned to my various news alerts so I can keep track of Syria.

Pentagon buys 63 more F-35s?

Thanks to Nico for this depressing piece of news.

via Corant.com

he Senate on Tuesday approved a final defense authorization bill, legislation that has generated its share of drama this year, paving the way for an increase in defense spending in Connecticut and the nation.
The $607 billion bill, a compromise between separate House and Senate defense authorization bills, approves congressional spending for 63 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters – six more than the Pentagon had requested and nearly 20 more than were authorized in 2015. The F-35 engines are made by Pratt & Whitney.

Ok.

The rage has subsided ... a bit.  One question.  They gave us purchase price for almost every other big ticket item but the F-35.  I wonder why?

Update:  Give me help on the language here...

SEC. 145. LIMITATION ON AVAILABILITY OF FUNDS FOR F–35A AIRCRAFT PROCUREMENT.Of the funds authorized to be appropriated by this Act or otherwise made available for fiscal year 2016 for aircraft procurement, Air Force, not more than $4,285,000,000 may be obligated for the procurement of F–35A aircraft until the Secretary of the Air Force certifies to the congressional defense committees that F–35A aircraft delivered during fiscal year 2018 will have full combat capability, as determined as of the date of the enactment of this Act, with Block 3F hardware, software, and weapons carriage.

And then this...

 SEC. 241. INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT OF F135 ENGINE PROGRAM.(a) Assessment.—The Secretary of Defense shall seek to enter into a contract with a federally funded research and development center to conduct an assessment of the F135 engine program.
(b) Elements.—The assessment under subsection (a) shall include the following:
(1) An assessment of the reliability, growth, and cost-reduction efforts with respect to the F135 engine program, including—
(A) a detailed description of the reliability and cost history of the engine;
(B) the identification of key reliability and cost challenges to the program as of the date of the assessment; and
(C) the identification of any potential options for addressing such challenges.
(2) In accordance with subsection (c), a thorough assessment of the incident on June 23, 2014, consisting of an F135 engine failure and subsequent fire, including—
(A) the identification and definition of the root cause of the incident;
(B) the identification of potential actions or design changes needed to address such root cause; and
(C) the associated cost, schedule, and performance implications of such incident to both the F135 engine program and the F–35 Joint Strike Fighter program.
(c) Conduct Of Assessment.—The federally funded research and development center selected to conduct the assessment under subsection (a) shall carry out subsection (b)(2) by analyzing data collected by the F–35 Joint Program Office, other elements of the Federal Government, or contractors. Nothing in this section may be construed as affecting the plans of the Secretary to dispose of the aircraft involved in the incident described in such subsection (b)(2).
(d) Report.—Not later than March 15, 2016, the Secretary shall submit to the congressional defense committees a report containing the assessment conducted under subsection (a).

The rescued SU-24 pilot talks about Turkey...

Thanks to BaneBlade for the info!

via Fortruss Blogspot...(the SU-24 pilots words)...

"Since today Turkey does not exist for me any more... in any shape or form... I want to explain why... Our planes have been shot down in Afghanistan, Chechnya, South Ossetia, in many conflicts... But they were struck by the enemy, in battle... you shoot at him, he shoots at you, it's understandable... and no matter how bitter the losses, for me, a military pilot, it was normal - there is no war without losses and we, the military, were prepared for this... But today... It is TREACHERY and infinite HYPOCRISY, when you declare yourself an ally in the fight against absolute evil, and yourself stab in the back those who most actively fight against this evil... And do not talk about crossing the border, whether it happened or not, this is all meaningless ... professionals will understand, and will not argue... SNEAK attack from behind a corner... this is it ... not for nothing they sing: "We don't need Turkish shores"..."

Uh.  Wow.  Those are the words of a man that's ready to deal some serious pain.  There is no forgiveness, just rage.  This guy won't give any quarter to even an injured foe.

If this is the feeling of the Russian populace (and from my swing thru their blogs it is) then trouble is coming.

Putin will have no choice but to strike, strike hard and make it visible to calm the crowd.

2nd AABn conducts Heavy Brigade Combat Team ops....Photos by Cpl. Michael Dye

***Uh when did the USMC adopt/create "Heavy Brigade Combat Teams"?  Is this a new formation in addition to the traditional Marine Expeditionary Brigade?  Can anyone tell me the composition of a USMC Heavy Brigade Combat Team?  Its notional strength and under what circumstances it would be used?

Turkmen in Syria are reaping the whirlwind...poor bastards are getting pounded...

Thanks to s300v4 for the link!



Interesting.  This stuff isn't popping up on Russian defense websites.  This is coming from rebel groups in Syria.

From the few vids I've seen its obvious that the Russians are pounding the shit out of these poor bastards.  Yeah.  I can have sympathy even for enemies when they're getting hit that hard....well...a little sympathy anyway.  Personally I can't imagine being subjected to that type of barrage.

Sidenote to all proxies/potential proxies.  Never become the focus of a power play.  You might be protected at first but can be jettisoned at any time.

Its obvious that the Turks have decided not to push the issue...or they can't.  Either way the Turkmen are in a hurt locker.  From my chair it appears that everything has stopped and they're the main focus of Russian operations.

Major oil find in the Golan Heights...how did we miss this?

Thanks to FkDahl for the info!

via UPI

Genie Energy, a company with headquarters in the United States, confirmed it made a major discovery of oil and natural gas in the Golan Heights.
The New Jersey-based company said data from exploratory wells drilling into the area confirm what it said were "significant" quantities of oil and natural gas.
"We remain optimistic given the results to date," Genie Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Howard Jonas said in a statement. "We are now working diligently to determine the production costs and total quantity of the resource."
The company's Israeli subsidiary, Afek Oil and Gas, drilled into a column of reserves about 1,150 feet thick, about 10 times larger than the global average.

Fighting has been picking up in the Golan Heights and I thought it was simply a matter of geography.

I should have known better.  ALWAYS FOLLOW THE MONEY!

I'm no greenie but dammit we really need to get off oil...even at the price of suffering higher oil prices to make it happen.  The resource wars (which obviously have started) just aren't worth it.

Of course this leads to an uncomfortable but necessary question.  Is the uptick in fighting in the region due to Israel protecting itself, protecting this oil find or both?

Blast from the past...the Swedish A-10 (SAAB Project 1642-06 FLP Klass B3LM)

via War Machine

Why are extended states of emergency becoming so popular?

First it was Boston with a declaration of emergency and ordering citizens to remain indoors for a couple of days.  Then we had the situation in Paris with a few weeks of "state of emergency" power, then Brussels with three weeks of the same  and now this morning we hear that Tunisia has declared a state of emergency for a month.

Why is this becoming so popular?

Are we really going to accept police state actions because our law enforcement/intel agencies didn't stop the threat and liberal politicians encouraged the import of shady people into the country?

This is an open thread.  I'd like your opinion.  Am I overboard or spot on?

Aw Shit! Israel enters the fray. Kills Hezbollah, Syrian Soldiers in airstrikes in Syria.

Thanks to Maurice for the link!

via Times of Israel

A report by Al-Souria Net, a pro-opposition outlet, said eight Hezbollah fighters and five Syrian soldiers were killed in the raids, which hit the border region between Lebanon and Syria.
“After several hours of reconnaissance flights above the area, Israeli planes suddenly launched two raids on a joint Assad forces and Hezbollah position,” Al-Souria Net reported. “This was immediately followed by a third raid.. The Israeli planes resumed their attack with a fourth air raid after several minutes, targeting a Hezbollah position in western Qalamoun.”
The report said there were “dozens” injured in the airstrikes, four of them critically. The wounded were transferred to local hospitals for treatment

Here.

Wow.  I don't understand the Israeli's on this one.  I would imagine that they'd sit this one out...but they aren't.

Like Russians, Israelis usually have a plan.

The only obvious thing here is that the US and EU are impotent.  Events are moving faster than Western govts can react.  Its almost like we're dial up and they're broadband.

How much longer can this be contained before it turns into a regional war between all the powers there?  When do they stop hitting proxies and go after the real players?

S-400 to be deployed in Syria. WTF were the Turks thinking?

via Sputnik

Russia will deploy S-400 defense missile systems to Hmeymim airbase in Syria, Russian Defense Ministry Sergey Shoygu said Thursday.

That's it.   Nothing else from Sputnik.

WTF were the Turks thinking?  Now the Russians are moving to have a completely integrated air defense complex over Syria.  They've moved warships and are upping the ante with the S-400.

The interesting thing?  If the S-400 is everything the Russians say that it is (and the boys at Air Power Australia are convinced that it is) then they can cover all of Syria, most of Iraq and parts of Turkey.

Robert sent me this vid...



What's the plan?  I have no idea.  I do know that airstrikes resumed against the Turkmen (the reason why this whole drama started) and I expect even more over the next few days.

You're gonna watch football during Thanksgiving.  I'm gonna be watching Syria.

Do stupid stuff and sometimes tragic shit happens.

Hat Tip to the "Unwanted" Blog for the link!

via Daily Mail.

A teenage Austrian girl who fled to Syria along with her friend is believed to have been beaten to death after being caught trying to flee the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa.
Samra Kesinovic, 17, and her friend Sabina Selimovic became 'poster girls' for ISIS after they arrived in Syria in April 2014.
A number of Austrian newspapers have reported that Samra has been beaten to death for attempting to leave Raqqa, although official government sources are refusing to comment on individual cases.

Here.

I can't even comprehend the thinking of these girls.  What would make someone want to run to ISIS and become sex slaves?

I'm not surprised by the barbarity of ISIS...not anymore.  I am surprised that common sense seems to be such a rare commodity these days.  The good news from this?  This girls suffering is over.  The bad?  Her friend is probably being passed around like a piece of meat.

Do stupid stuff and sometimes tragic shit happens.

New Shepard Space Vehicle flies into space and lands back on earth vertically!

Amazon beats Space X.

via Engadet.com

Blue Origin, the private space firm owned by Amazon's Jeff Bezos, has just dropped a huge gauntlet in the race to develop a reusable rocket. It just launched its New Shepardspace vehicle (video, below), consisting of a BE-3 rocket and crew capsule, to the edge of space at a suborbital altitude of 100.5 kilometers (62 miles). The capsule then separated and touched down beneath a parachute, but more importantly, the BE-3 rocket also started its own descent. After the rockets fired at nearly 5,000 feet, it made a a controlled vertical landing at a gentle 4.4 mph.

Here.

Its one thing to talk about private industry outperforming the govt.  Its another to see the race between corporations and then to witness how they're leaping past govt efforts.

NASA needs to up its game.  Right now its being lapped by private industry and as soon as rare minerals are found on the moon or asteroids or even other planets then you'll see that agency die.

Once space is fully monetized, govt will forever be behind private corporations.  The military applications are scary.  What happens when Blue Origin or Space X militarizes their projects to protect themselves from Chinese, Russian or even US efforts to control their property, tax their products and/or take their gear?  Right now its a corporate/govt partnership.  What happens when that partnership becomes burdensome to the corporations?  Is this how the rise of corporate governance happens?

What happens when the burden of govt interference forces corporations to abandon them in order to deliver shareholder returns?

BAE wins ACV downselect! UPDATE! SAIC is also selected!

via Press Release.

The U.S. Marine Corps has awarded BAE Systems’ team a contract worth $103.7 million for the Engineering, Manufacturing, and Development (EMD) phase of the Amphibious Combat Vehicle (ACV) 1.1 program. The company, along with teammate IVECO Defence Vehicles, will deliver a solution that will be built from the ground up to be an amphibious vehicle and will provide significant capability improvements to satisfy the Marine Corps’ current and future needs.
“We are proud to continue our long history of providing the Marine Corps with superior amphibious capabilities,” said Deepak Bazaz, director of new and amphibious vehicles at BAE Systems. “Our vehicle was designed to be fully amphibious with exceptional ground mobility and protection. Our ACV solution will provide the Marine Corps with a mature, cost-effective solution with significant growth capacity.”
The award is one of two EMD contracts issued. During this phase, BAE Systems will produce 16 prototypes that will be tested by the Marine Corps beginning in the third quarter of 2016. Work on the vehicles will take place at BAE Systems’ facilities in Quantico, Virginia; San Jose, California; and York, Pennsylvania.
BAE Systems’ ACV 1.1 solution is an advanced 8x8 open ocean-capable vehicle that is based on a platform developed by Iveco Defence Vehicles. It is equipped with a new 6-cylinder, 700HP power pack, which provides a significant power increase over the current Assault Amphibious Vehicle. The vehicle performs best in class mobility in all terrains and has a suspended interior seat structure for 13 embarked Marines, blast mitigating positions for a crew of three, and improved survivability and force protection over currently fielded systems. The team has conducted extensive risk mitigation testing and evaluation for swim, land mobility, and survivability capabilities that have proven the solution’s capabilities.

Wow.

Still trying to figure out who the other company is...stand by...much more to come.

Oh and to the guys and gals at BAE.  Well done! 

Note:  Thank God for readers like Ogden.  He informed me that SAIC is the other selectee.  That means that the USMC downselected toward the two best swimmers.  What does that mean?  In my opinion ACV 1.1 and 1.2 have combined.  Oh and to prevent a protest let me add that this is because of the performance of these vehicles, not because of faulty contracting.  So what's left to do?  Just get it done!