That's one pretty athletic sailor!

Wow.  That's one pretty athletic sailor.  Glad he's ok but that could have gone so wrong!  I guess this is why they say the flight deck of an aircraft carrier is so dangerous....wonder if anyone's been blown overboard because of jet blast.

US Military Chiefs Warn Of 'Damaging' Cuts To Royal Marines

via Forces.net

Colonel Dan Sullivan warned that the relationship between the US Marine Corps (USMC) and its British counterpart would change if the proposed cut of 1,000 Royal Marines and UK's two amphibious assault ships are lost.

During a visit to London to attend a conference on the impact of technology on defence, The Times reporting him saying:

“My message is to articulate how important having that capability in our partner is, and how damaging I think it would be if our most important coalition partner potentially takes the hits that are projected right now.”

..........

 “From a military standpoint as the UK continues to diminish and as the Royal Marines in particular take a hit, I think that our view of what we will be able to do together in the future changes.”

Story here. 

Hmm.  Not sure why I'm just hearing alarm bells from US officials over UK defense cuts now.

The capability lost BEFORE now is much greater than any additional steps they're considering so I don't understand why things would change with regard to us working together. 

Is it the loss of two amphibious ships?  The potential loss of F-35 sales?  I'm really not sure but would love to know.

Diplomacy with North Korea looks to be on its 'last legs' as Trump openly ponders war

via Business Insider.

Multiple US government and congressional sources have said US diplomatic efforts with North Korea stand on their "last legs" as Pyongyang threatens more nuclear tests and Washington ponders all-out war.

The sources told NBC News on Wednesday that the efforts of Joseph Yun — a top US diplomat working with North Korea — to find a diplomatic solution to the missile crisis have all but completely broken down.

A US official told NBC that the sides have reached an impasse, a s North Korea apparently pursues completing its nuclear missile program above all else, and the US repeatedly states that it won't tolerate a nuclear-armed North Korea.

"It is not so much that North Korea is shutting down, it’s that the message from the US  government is, 'surrender without a fight or surrender with a fight,'" the official said. Another added that diplomatic efforts are on their "last legs."

Story here. 

Right on schedule. My prediction stands.  This winter.  Late this year, early next.

Expect some type of modified shock and awe.  They'll be massive strikes but targeted at a few sites.

I doubt very much that you'll see ground forces used...I don't think they'll actually try a decapitation raid...maybe a couple of MOABs dropped on the little fat dude but no Ranger/MARSOC raid into hell.

What I find funny is that everyone thinks that Trump is pushing this. 

He isn't.

He is taking the advice of his generals and Dunford practically shouted at the top of his lungs that N. Korea having nukes was unacceptable and that a fight would be necessary.

I'm sure they're planning to minimize escalation and I'm sure there are serious talks with China to determine their actions.  Same with Russia.

Oh and for our allies? 

You can bet that they're gonna assemble at least one airplane, servicemember and ship from as many nations as possible to make this look like a united effort and to give the illusion of legality to the upcoming fight.

My fear?

I think they'll go after Seoul and our bases in Okinawa with conventionally tipped ballistic missiles.  There are some service people that haven't got the memo and brought their families to a war zone and because the services don't want to give away the store they'll be considered a reasonable risk if things go bad because an evacuation would warn the North.

Side note.  Do you think that Trump would actually do the Transgender ban unless the military told him to?  Dude just doesn't care that much about the issue and his New York sensibilities would have him leave it alone.  He acted for the service chiefs.  Same with the recall of pilots.  The SecAF can lie and say that they won't use it but Trump didn't pull that out of his ass.  All this is part of the war prep.  Integrating transexuals in this environment would be too hard during a big war and the pilots thing is obvious.  As far as I'm concerned War has already been declared.

Open Comment Post. Oct 26, 201

AMX-10RC at Bold Alligator 17 landing on Onslow Beach...pics by Cpl. Abraham Lopez

This is still a big exercise and still worth watching even if all the units assigned didn't make it because of disaster relief duties.

I'm personally happy to see the French bringing their AMX-10RC.  It should serve to inform the Marine Corps on whether or not to pursue a Mobile Gun System type solution with the ACV.

The only other comment I have has to do with "interoperability" as the USMC is pursuing it.

I think the incident in Africa is instructive.

I don't believe that SOCOM is the all knowing masters of combat but from my chair it appears that they're not hot and bothered about being able to operate off foreign aircraft (although they will if its necessary) or ships.  They're more concerned with making sure that they have proper comms with foreign forces in their areas of operation and have developed "mutual aid" pacts with them.

Instead of stationing USMC aircraft and personnel on foreign ships (which will lead to tons of issues if they're actually needed in an emergency situation) we should be focusing on better meshing headquarters elements so that we can push quick reaction forces, assist with logistics if necessary and even ensure that casualties are taken to the facility best able to handle their issue.

I'm thinking that in the case of the Africa incident the French aircraft would have been cleared to drop bombs and do demonstrations of force.  French Legionnaires would have been able to act as a QRF for our Special Forces and vice versa.  And of course they would take our wounded to their field hospital instead of us having to rely on host nation medical facilities (and I'm making that assumption)

Interoperability can work.  If it's done right and if its done without the game playing to push an airplane.

Bold Alligator 17 Amphibious Assault...vid by Cpl. Boston Berg and Lance Cpl. Melissa Lettieri

Congratulations 239 Troop on earning your Green Berets.

Wow.  Can't put my finger on it but that was cool.  I can't quite tell and hopefully a Royal Marine will tell me but are those recruits lined up cheering them on?  If it is then I guess it's a subtle bit of motivation to keep them pushing forward when a few might be feeling like giving up.

Anyone know?

Regardless that was pretty fucking awesome.  Vid is via Royal Marines Instagram Page and if you're not linked into them then you're missing out.

Politics Talk. Trump has defeated the Republican political establishment.

via CNN

Republican Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, a frequent critic of President Donald Trump, will not run for re-election, he said Tuesday in a blistering speech on the Senate floor that bemoaned the "coarsening" tenor of politics in the United States.

Flake denounced the "complicity" of his own party in what he called an "alarming and dangerous state of affairs" under Trump, blaming the President for setting the tone. In his speech, Flake assailed a "flagrant disregard for truth or decency" and attacked a "regular and casual undermining of our democratic norms."
"When such behavior emanates from the top of our government, it is something else: It is dangerous to a democracy," Flake said.

Story here. 

You've already heard about this unless you've been hiding under a rock but I want to push forward my own pet theory.

First, the "conventional wisdom" is wrong.  I've heard more than a few reporters openly talk about leadership asking Flake to step aside so that a mainstream Republican could win his seat.

Seems as if Mr. Flake isn't too popular with Republicans in Arizona, so no, this is not a demonstration of courage/self sacrifice.

Dude just saw the writing on the wall and bailed before he was pushed.

This does raise an interesting issue in my mind.

For better or worse, Trump has defeated the political establishment of the Republican party.

The primary season and the election proved this to be true, but everyone (including me) got frozen because Trump allowed the Senate to enact their pet projects while putting his own agenda on the back burner.

I believe that was simply Trump playing nice.

The Republican party as espoused by the elite is dead.  Free trade is being replaced with fair trade.  Open borders is being replaced with tight immigration controls.  International agreements will be nation to nation instead of huge agreements between entire blocs of countries.

The only thing that is keeping this from being a complete rout is the seeming allegiance to Republican elite's military policy.  In particular his allowing the war on terror to expand into Africa and the continued push to label Russia as a potential threat to European countries.

My guess is that this tax bill attempt will be the final "gimmee" to the elite.  If they fail then I expect Trump's advisors to have him pivot over to infrastructure, law and order, and a continuation of shedding rules and regulations via his cabinet secretaries.

We've just witnessed the defeat of the Neo-Con/Elite political power in the Republican party.  The same WILL HAPPEN to the Democrats.  The only reason why it hasn't is because they have more factions under their tent and tend to focus more on social issues rather than issues of govt.

American politics has been changed forever because of Trump.  The only question is what happens to those establishment/elite?  Could they form a new political party?  Will Trump decide to dump the Republicans and run as an independent?

Who knows but it will be real interesting to watch.

X-47B will not be the Navy's new UAV...Northrop pulls out of the competition...

via Defense News.

Northrop Grumman will not put forward a bid for the U.S. Navy’s MQ-25 unmanned tanker aircraft, its CEO announced Wednesday.

While the specific reasoning underpinning the decision was not fully explained, it appears the Navy’s final request for proposals — released earlier this month — raised questions among executives who worried that Northrop would be unable to develop a UAV that met specifications and still delivered profit for the company.

“When we’re looking at one of these opportunities, let me be clear: Our objective is not just to win. Winning is great, it feels good on the day of an announcement, but if you can’t really execute on it and deliver on it to your customer and your shareholders, then you’ve done the wrong thing,” Northrop head Wes Bush said during an Oct. 25 earnings call.

“And we’ve worked hard over a long number of years in our company to have great clarity around what our objectives are,” he said. “When you’re entrusted by the U.S. or any one of our allied nations to do something in the defense arena, that’s a bond of trust that you can’t afford to break, and we really look hard at executability under the terms of RFPs that come out to make sure that we can execute.”

Story here. 

Navy aviation is killing itself.  First it had the weird switch to make the UAV into a tanker instead of keeping deep strike and then it wrote a RFP that was so strict that its obvious that there is no profit to even trying for the contract.

I blame this on two things.  The F-35 mafia won and because they did the US Navy is going to be out of the deep strike mission for another couple of generations.  The X-47B as first envisioned would have filled that role nicely.  Call it the second coming of the A-6 but unmanned and stealthy.

The second issue is the RFP.  I'm glad the Pentagon is getting serious about saving the taxpayer money but they're leaving proven capabilities on the table while grasping for lesser ones that will not pay off in a high end fight.

This is terrible news.

Are we heading back to a time when naval jets are undoubtedly inferior to their land based counterparts?

In WW2 that was certainly the case before the F6F and F4U arrived on the scene.  Land based fighter regained their superiority for awhile during the 50's and 60's, but with the arrival of the F-4 Phantom and F-8 Crusader the gap was again negated.  But now?  I like the Super Hornet but in terms of raw power it will never equal the Mighty F-15 or F-22, not to mention the latest Sukhoi or J-20.

A stealthy UAV that could conduct deep strikes, serve as a missile truck, do ISR, serve as a picket for the fleet and finally do the tanker mission would have been a God send.  The Navy instead seems to be emphasizing the tanker mission.

This is a lost opportunity.  I hope leadership knows what its doing.

It's time to throw out the Counterinsurgency Manual and start fresh with a new one!

The counterinsurgency manual was re-written with great fan fare by Generals Petraeus and Amos.  It supposedly encapsulated the lessons learned from our early efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq and would point the way ahead.

The battlefield has a vote and it has rendered our current concept of operations obsolete.

The problem?  The enemy has evolved.  No longer are we fighting peasants on foot armed with AKs and the occasional RPG.

Additionally we have found that insider attacks (in the form of actually assaulting our servicemen) or providing information to the enemy (as evidenced by the ambush of the Special Forces in Niger) is as great a threat to our forces as actually enemy action.

My solution?

Dump small unit tactics that embed our forces into host nation units.  Mark my words, one day we will see an entire team sold to the enemy for a few pieces of gold or the drug of choice in whatever country we're operating in and they will be subjected to barbarity that will shock the nation for a generation.

Additionally we've got to get real.  We can't scatter our forces all over the globe without proper support.  That means at least a company of infantry (at the least!) to act as a quick reaction force.  It means having our teams operate under the protective cover of artillery and rotary winged close air support.

Finally we've got to make better choices.  Not everyone that smiles at a nation's capital actually speaks for those in the countryside.  We need better human intelligence on the motivations of the various clans/tribes etc.  We need to know where the host nation is strong, where it is weak and where it is committing crimes against its people.

I'm done with the story of the Special Forces Team getting ambushed in Africa. It was horrific and I'm sorry it happened but enough looking in the rear view mirror.

It's time to look ahead and do our best to make sure it doesn't happen again. The first step to doing that is to realign our forces so that we can provide them the support they need if they have a chance encounter with enemy forces.

Pentagon takes over cost savings program from Lockheed...Death spiral obviously on the horizon.

via Defense News.

The U.S. Defense Department’s deep dive into the F-35’s cost is officially underway, as a team of Pentagon officials works their way through the massive supply chain of the joint strike fighter, a top official said Monday.

The Pentagon knows how much it’s paying for the F-35, but the deep dive will help officials understand the true cost of the jet and why, as well as what can be done to whittle down the price tag even further, said Shay Assad, the department’s director of defense pricing.

Over the next several weeks, the assessment team will meet with the three major contractors on the F-35 — prime contractor Lockheed Martin, as well as BAE Systems and Northrop Grumman, which make major portions of the fuselage — and lay out the parameters of the review.

“Lockheed is familiar with this process because we’ve done it before with them, so this isn’t something new,” Assad said. “Many of the things we’re talking about are just practices that have occurred in the past, this will just be much more rigorous. So we’ll lay it out with the companies. And we’ll also lay out for them: Here’s our plan in terms of your subcontractor base, and this is what we want to do, and then get off and get the work done.”

The review will take about a year to complete.

“It’s a very intense effort,” he said.

Story here. 

But wait!  The F-35 is already on course to be less expensive than the Super Hornet according to the fan boys over at F-16.net so why do this?

Because its obvious that the death spiral is on the horizon.  We can probably add to it that Block 4 isn't going to deliver as promised either.  Already we're hearing about weapon systems being moved to Block 5.

Forget all the "so called deployments".  The reality is stark.  The F-35 IS NOT delivering as promised and Lockheed Martin and the Pentagon know it.

My advice?  Watch their stock carefully.  Expect some well placed executives to start selling stocks and retiring early.  The F-35 has turned into a dropped knife...the only question that remains is who will be forced to catch it.

HIMARS launch from the deck of an amphib?

Story here.

I'm sure you guys have already chopped this up (and if you haven't then follow the link).

My thoughts?

Well done.  This has been talked about as far back as Mike Sparks on his blog and New Wars blog also pounded on the table about doing exactly what we're seeing.

What I'd like to see is a more robust test/experimentation with the concept. I'd love to see 8 HIMARS (just a round number...could be more if they can be accommodated) strapped to the flight deck of a Mobile Landing Platform (MLP) and they conduct a "grid square eradication exercise"!  Then I'd love to see some type of reload conducted.

If you have 8 HIMARS up then is there enough room to have 8 more drive up, get strapped down and await the next fire mission while the original vehicles are reloaded.

Is there room for such a thing?  Does it make sense? Can we do this with the same number of vehicles but instead of MLRS rockets we use ATACMS instead? Does it makes sense to perhaps use podded Tomahawks or ground launched JASSMs in this role too?

This was a good start but I'd like to unleash the innovation in the Marine Corps to its full.  Baby steps lead to walking then running.  I know that but we've got to get bold in our experimentation.  If it fails then oh well but at least we tried!

Esquire Magazine takes a chainsaw to the F-35's capability and costs!

via Esquire.

When we last left our old friend, the F-35 fighter-bomber—a.k.a. The Flying Swiss Army Knife—they were working out the bugs in its ejector-seat mechanism so that the pilot would not be decapitated should said pilot have to exit the vehicle suddenly. There also has cropped up something of an oxygen problem which, if it were unchecked, at least would make the decapitation of the ejecting pilot superfluous.

..........

 At this point, if you’re keeping score at home, the entire project ultimately will cost you and me your grandchildren and everybody else and their Uncle Fud $1.53 trillion (with a T), which is a projected overrun of $35 billion (with a B).

Story here. 

It's a short read but well worth your time.  Long story short?  This fight is far from over.  The Pentagon knows that and so does Lockheed Martin.

There is still time to save American air superiority and this article is exhibit 1. If the Republicans want lower taxes and if a segment of that party wants cost savings/cuts to balance it all out, then the F-35 becomes an obvious target.

You thought this F-35 thing was over?

Not on your life!

This fight is actually just beginning.  New prediction.  The USAF will get south of 700 of these airplanes.

Canadian Army CH-146 Griffon's @ Exercice SPARTIATE ECLAIREUR...pics by Sgt Marc-André Gaudreault

Open Comment Post. Oct 25, 2017

Been gone for a minute but I'm back now.  Expect a "dump" of various stories on the blog as we catch up on all the news we missed.

Warhammer News. Trump signs executive order allowing recall of retired pilots...war prep going into last stage...

Thanks to Joe for the link!

via The Hill Blog.

President Trump signed an executive order on Friday that would allow the Air Force to call upon 1,000 retired airmen to return to active duty amid a nationwide shortage of military combat pilots.

The White House announced that Trump would use powers under the National Emergencies Act signed in the aftermath of the terror attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, to subject the secretaries of the Army, Navy and Air Force to the direction of the secretary of Defense on the matter.

Pentagon spokesman Navy Cmdr. Gary Ross said in a statement to CNBC that Defense Secretary James Mattis now has the power to recall up to 1,000 retired military pilots into service to address the shortage, a responsibility Ross said Mattis will likely delegate to the secretary of the Air Force.

The Pentagon has said that the Air Force is lacking 1,500 pilots for active duty, on top of shortages of aviator officers in the Navy, as mentioned in the White House memo.

Trump's order comes as the Trump administration is preparing to ramp up the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan as part of the administration's new stabilization strategy for the country.

Story here.

Two things.

The Pentagon has emphasized everything over people.  Now they're paying the price.  People voted with their feet and left the service and now after failing retention goals with bonuses they're having to drag people back into service.

It's bad form but they're desperate. 

Second, don't be fooled.  This isn't about Afghanistan its about N. Korea.  This is the final stage of the military prep for the war.  They want these guys back in case things go south.

Prediction still stands.  Winter will see the bombs drop.

Do you wonder why it took so long to get outside aid to our Special Forces Team? Africa is freaking HUGE!

Thanks to illilpop100 for the pic!

Yeah.  Africa is HUGE!  You wonder why it took so long to get our guys support?  Its like having a team operating in Mississippi and their support based in NY City.  As bad as that ambush was we're lucky it wasn't worse considering the vast distances and the long limb these guys were on (which indicates a failure not only of intelligence but of planning and leadership...we'll chop that up later).

I've been waiting for some of my readers from Africa to chime in on the situation with the Special Forces team that got ambushed and luckily one of them responded today.

I got corrected on one thing.  According to this guy the US is held in high esteem.  I thought otherwise (have experienced otherwise..maybe it was a dick measuring contest) but ok, I'll roll with that.

He also stated that Africa is wildly diverse.  All kinds of different tribes, religions, cultures, wildlife etc...

My point remains. 

Special Forces wants to operate in ways that are no longer applicable to the battlefield as we find it today.  12 man teams even when operating with host nation forces will be targeted.  They will be fixed, and the enemy will exert maximum effort to destroy them.

At the VERY LEAST Army Special Forces Teams need to be augmented with a company of Rangers or MARSOC.

Force Protection in 2017 and beyond mean a minimum size unit be company sized with complimentary air and fire support.  Having available quick reaction forces is also necessary as well as adequate ISR.

Going small and covering the globe is NOT workable.  Combatant Commanders will need to tailor their request for forces more reasonably.  For example, AFRICOM would get one battalion of Marines, one SF team and either a Ranger or MARSOC company with the support we talked about.  That's it for a 6 month period.  SecDef would REQUIRE that they not be placed in penny packets all over the continent and that for each mission they conduct they are then allowed proper rest and recovery before heading on the next.

NO MORE WEARING OUT THE FORCE!

Open Comment Post. Oct 21, 2017

Blast from the past. The Inchon amphibious assault...

First Lieutenant Baldomero Lopez, USMC, leads the 3rd Platoon, Company A, 1st Battalion, 5th Marines over the seawall on the northern side of Red Beach, as the second assault wave lands, 15 September 1950, during the Inchon invasion. Wooden scaling ladders are in use to facilitate disembarkation from the LCVP that brought these men to the shore. Lt. Lopez was killed in action within a few minutes, while assaulting a North Korean bunker. Note M-1 Carbine carried by Lt. Lopez, M-1 Rifles of other Marines and details of the Marines’ field gear.  via War History Online

I've always had a rather morbid thought that I've tried to shake but just can't. When 1stLT Lopez woke up that morning...when he led his Marines over the seawall...when he stood outside that North Korean bunker prepping his mind, body and soul to go thru that door...did he feel it coming...did he know on that day he would meet his maker?

Was something different for him and others that day?  Did something feel off and they just couldn't put their finger on it?

I guess you have to experience some things to get your answer.

My biggest fears about Africa/SOCOM are being realized. Locals may have helped ISIS ambush Green Berets.

First up.  Do you remember the retired Special Forces General lambasting the SOCOM Head, Admiral McMasters, about SOCOM's publicity seeking?

A retired general today assailed the commander of the Navy SEAL raid that killed Osama bin Laden for drawing too much media attention to operations that he argued should be kept under wraps.

Special Operations Commander Adm. Bill McRaven was confronted by retired Lt. Gen. James Vaught, who said he didn't understand why the recent raids by the Navy SEALs, such as the one to kill Osama bin Laden or to rescue U.S. hostage Jessica Buchanan, were all over the media.

"Since the time when your wonderful team went and drug bin Laden out and got rid of him, and more recently when you went down and rescued the group in Somalia, or wherever the hell they were, they've been splashing all of this all over the media," Vaught, 85, said. "I flat don't understand that.

"Now back when my special operators extracted Saddam [Hussein] from the hole, we didn't say one damn word about it," he continued. "We turned him over to the local commander and told him to claim that his forces drug him out of the hole, and he did so. And we just faded away and kept our mouth shut.

"Now I'm going to tell you, one of these days, if you keep publishing how you do this, the other guy's going to be there ready for you, and you're going to fly in and he's going to shoot down every damn helicopter and kill every one of your SEALs. Now, watch it happen. Mark my words. Get the hell out of the media," he concluded, as laughter broke out at a meeting of the National Defense Industrial Association in Washington, D.C.

The ABC article covering the event (along with a video) is here. 

Fast forward to the here and now.  Check this out from UPI.

The 12-man team of Green Berets ambushed in Niger were delayed as they left a meeting with local leaders -- which may have been part of the plan to attack them, Army officials told UPI.

Officials suspect that some people in the Oct. 4 Tongo Tongo meeting may have been working with the Islamic State. Some people from the town have been arrested.

The attack, in which four U.S. soldiers were killed -- including one who was not found until nearly 48 hours later, was a surprise. Intelligence had indicated the likelihood of an attack was low.

Story here. 

There you have it.

My biggest fears are being realized.  You've heard me rant about the dangers of operating in Africa and yet I could almost hear the laughter coming from some of you. 

Are you laughing now?

As a quick side note.  They didn't discover the body of the 4th SF troop until 48 hours later.  I hope I'm wrong.  Correction.  I PRAY I'M WRONG!  But I suspect he might have been captured alive.  If that's the case then I hope God had mercy and I hope his killers are castrated and their genitals stuffed in their mouths.

Back on task.

Operating in a region of the world, using the same techniques, not modifying your operating procedures when you see the battlefield changing is all part of this agony.

We saw early in the war in Iraq that small units were/are vulnerable.  We saw it again more than a few times in Afghanistan.  But for some unknown reason the Pentagon (and even the Marine Corps) is infatuated with them.

Why?

Because the concepts are manpower "saving".  They hope to make up the difference with the use of technology.  But that tech ain't here yet and these small units are getting mauled at a time and place of the enemies choosing.

I don't feel a need to touch on the religious and tribal aspects of the region.  If you don't know instinctively that they're fucked up beyond recognition then I can't help you.

Shifting tribal loyalty, religious zealotry not seen since the Middle Ages and these are the very same people that our SF guys are depending on?  These are the guys that they're suppose to turn into force multipliers? Foreign Internal Defense is not a "cover" for operations globally.  In some parts of the world it just won't' work...like Iraq, Afghanistan and all of Africa.

We must adapt.  We must accept the world as it is, not as our concepts would like it to be.  If we don't then we're gonna see more of this.